Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 JACKMAN has been on a tear and will look to continue his current win streak for the new connections. His early speed has been a big asset and again could be key with today’s race shape, the rail draw and shorter 5.5f distance. He could take some pressure from #2 MACRON and #4 ATTA PARTY though should have the edge of that group with the main concern holding form off the tough series and back today on very short rest to make his sixth start of the season.

If the contention does get to him late, Broberg his former trainer sends out #3 SPEIGHT AND MALICE could be right there tracking as one that comes into this race with current and progressive form, has shown some early speed in the past and will add blinkers today.  He could also present the current form edge over #6 SPANKSTER and #7 ALBIZU two runners that in their career have races that win this under wraps though have been working through layoffs trying to find their top form and where they fit at older horses.

#5 PAPA ROCKET returns off the layoff and another that tends to make his run from off the pace though has been able to close into any pace and picks up a live rider in Arrieta. His form over this course from last season stack up on par and over all consistent figures in his 4yo season and since joining the Scott Becker barn. 

#4 CHOCTAW ZIP is logically in this spot of his consistent form and figures that are on par. The connections dropped to the higher claiming class last out and turned in a competitive race behind the perfect trip winner, Shake Up (one we will see later on the card) in a race that had minimal change in running order. That race shape played against #7 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO one that has the pattern of SLOG and on 2/17 had a rough start in addition and did his best to make up ground.

#5 STREET COMMANDER has been consistent this season at the statebred claiming level and can hold his form for a share once again. He has this season and throughout his career had gate issues (similar for #1 MR. COUGAR given no favors at the rail) perhaps the rider change to Torres will look to improve on that front but something to consider as far as trip on the win end (for that pair) and value.

The two outside runners fit at this level and are competitive on their best day as they return for a season debut. Looking to split the pair, #11 VYING EDGE has longer break coming back after 308-days though has established form on this circuit as well as a tactical speed edge over #10 HOPPIN JOHN.  

#9 HIGHER STANDARD in an interesting runner here for Cowans a barn that has had a lot of success this year at TP and does not send out runners here at Oaklawn – HIGHER STANDARD does have a start over this course going back to his juvenile season, a place finish in his second career start in the Advent Stakes. That suggests this one is live coming in off the long layoff and in good hands picking up a live rider in Esquivel. Horses like #2 UNDER OATH that has the history of layoff lines can be tough to assess. On their best day they are prime contender though cannot always be trusted to run that “best” race. The timing and placement here suggests this would be the time and place. While he is not protected, the higher $75k tag is a step up from the $50k he was claimed at – that $50k gives them options in starter company as well these type of connections that will drop to win or drop to move horses along. A lot of attention could land on #3 NELSON AVENUE and one that would not be any shock to win or run a good race here. With that said he has a pattern of layoff lines, drops to the claiming level and a distance change to 6f and addition of blinkers – a lot of experimentation taking place while his form this season at the FG has been average and those two races would not be enough to get it done here.

#4 JULLIARD is not the most likely in this field or even of the group returning with current local form this season and even on his best day might be below some others in this field. With that said, he might not be as strong as a contender though one that can get a share at a big number with improving and hidden form in this third start of the season. 

#5 MAN IN THE CAN should be well intended for this race in his second start back off the layoff and stretch out in distance. Moquett runners have been firing as of late and that should carry here coming back from the 2/9 OC, competitive event that say many running back last weekend in the Nodouble Breeders Stakes.

#4 DINNER AT CRUMPIES will make a belated second start this season. The allowance against open company in the first part of the season, appeared a prep that this one has required a little more time from to get race reason. His form over this course form prior seasons and the class drop with De La Cruz returning today with some hidden early speed could get him back to his best races and the timing to take a shot as he should be overlooked off the recent running lines.

The Ortiz barn and #1 BLACK APPLE are too sharp to dismiss completely here and fit at this statebred level, surface, and distance. The trip from the rail with their runstyle could present the main hurdle today. The timing, class and distance change could hit #3 ALLO ENRY in the right time and place here. He is coming into this race with progressive form in the third start off the layoff and quick return for this race and stretch out in distance. Vazquez was able to get familiar last out and has been live for these connections. His overall form and figures are not as strong as others but on his best day he is not far off to include in the mix.

#3 TIFF WITH JIMMY has legit early speed and condition as she returns for this second start of the season, her 4yo season back under similar conditions. She should be fit from the 2/9 event, she was RUSHd WIDE for position and with the winner coming from just off the pace and saw both the 6^th and 10^th place finishers from that event come back to win in their next start.

She could have to deal with #8 HUMOR ME JIM one that has been consistent at this level this season and landing here first off the claim for live connections. She does not have to improve necessarily for these connection, though required to hold her form and maybe will have to show a bit more late to prevail for the win.

#6 THISONESFORLOVE makes a belated second start and going back to the 12/30 race the SLOG, something that is a pattern for her had her well off the pace though did put in a sneaky CLOSE, something that is not easy to see in the running line and finishing position. Number wise she is lighter than those other two, though on par with the rest of the group including #5 LIL TOWN SIS and #7 MAMBA OUT, one stepping up in class and if there is still upside for THISONESFORLOVE off her juvenile figures, she could be right there. 

Manny Franco comes into town to ride the feature for Brad Cox and could have another live mount here on #3 FLASHY DANCER making her debut. She has been training locally and should have plenty of foundation to get race ready and for this distance. While there are some challenges in that role, this race is open to a new face.

While #10 SOCIAL AFFAIR has the three starts she could be taken as a new face coming back for 2024. She must show that she is, though there has been intent for this meet noting she was entered back on opening week and a vet scratch that day worked four days later and has been training steadily since.

Steve Asmussen with the pair #4 CATALYST and #6 LADY ARIEL and Ken McPeek with the pair layoff returnee #1 UNDER THE PALMS and first time starter #9 AVA MOON PIE could jump up though still have a lot to prove in this group especially on the win end. Perhaps UNDER THE PALMS coming back from the Saratoga races can IMPROVE, though the rail draw, and lack of early speed shown in those first two starts could be a hurdle.

 #5 LITTLE JAMIE and #8 AMY Z have the benefit of local form and foundation and that can often be an advantage in this races. Both have held their form and not much between them, though neither had had much in terms of excuse and have not shown much improvement. 

The shorter distance was a question for #9 SEVEN FLAT returning from the layoff two weeks ago and could make sense wheeling back today with the stretch out from that race. He should benefit from that start as well as the move off the rail and Franco in town today picks up the call. #7 LIL SWEET THANG following a similar pattern from the 2/23 common race and bringing fitness from that WIDE trip stretching out second off the bench. While the running line and finishing position leaves something to be desired, the pacesetters cleared finished 1-2 and clear of the rest.

#6 AROLLERCOASTERRIDE comes back to make his second start of the season and upside from that 1/27 event and back under similar conditions for Diodoro first off the claim. The race over the course should assist as well as the move off the rail, something that played a role in his trip inside and behind horses.

They have to let #5 SPEITFUL SAM show his early speed today. Not only will he stretch out but picks up a rider change to Santana to suggest further intent and going back to 2/16 he could have had an early pace advantage though asked to rate, gave up key position that might have assisted the winner, Miri a Coincidence. His early speed should be on display though based on the complexion of this field; he is not necessarily alone in that role. The early pace could assist #1 LEGENDARY LORE as it did on 2/10 though this is a step up today and requires a top effort as well as pace and trip.

While #8 DJANGO has recorded some of the higher figures and finished second to a couple of the top runners in the division in Parchment Party and Dornoch, he must show he can run back to those numbers and improve in this second start of the season. Improvement is also required for stablemate #10 ELKO COUNTY -  he brings upside off his recent starts, local experience and could be intent with Leparoux and the blinkers added.

#1 NATIVE LAND ran a huge race on debut and showed that was no fluke holding for place as the BOS after setting a solid pace with the winner and show finisher from off the pace. Number wise he paired up numbers, and that is the main concern that perhaps we have seen his best and lacking any room for improvement could limit him on the win end.

Figure wise #3 RONALDINHO earned a similar figure in his debut and while the distance is the test he could easily hold upside in this second start.

#7 ALWAYS BE SMART should be flying under the radar in this race. His debut was sneaky good, earned a decent figure and off that effort was favored in his second start closing out the year at GP compromised in a race shape with minimal change in running order. The local run over this course last month could get dismissed though was a subtle, sneaky BTL effort and should benefit from the local experience and no concern with the added ground. 

#5 PATE has paired up competitive allowance efforts this season and knocking on the door to get that win, including the BLANKET finish last month racing in the rain, rival #4 SISTER KISSES also in that blanket finish, though had a more favorable run of the race. PATE has had some subtle trips and trouble that could see her closer to the pace today, an assist to work a trip.

#6 BLAME DAY also returns from that 2/10 common race and in her second start off the layoff. Visually she might be a touch below this level, though should hold her form and brings in some early speed. #9 UNSTABLE PRINCESS is given credit as she has shown more this season than perhaps her running lines and finishing positions suggest. She is the opposite of bringing in early speed and cutting back in distance, she could be even further off the pace.    

#2 FILLY CRYSTAL is taking a  big step up in class showing up on this circuit and allowance level. She dominated the allowance field back in January at MVH, though was flow aided and visually could be a top effort and one that could get public support off the open length win and figure. #7 CONDIMENT GIRL must also hold her form here off a top effort and step up in class. To her credit she has the benefit of local experience and the win figure from late January was a top but not a one off as she has similar numbers in the past. 

AZERI STAKES (G2):

The main players in this event exit the Bayakoa (G3) last month. The winner of the race #4 COMPARATIVE was game part of the early pace stayed on as the BOS and showed class to hold off the place finisher, Ice Orchid, and rival #3 MISTY VEIL is downgraded off the show finish in this ground.  

Part of COMPARATIVE’s front end trip was likely assisted when #6 HOT AND SULTRY one that projected to be on the lead stumbled at the start (TROUBLES+) taking her out of her runstyle, though a game effort showing run in a less than ideal trip and upgraded here. She should present value something that is required with this distance, one that is probably a bit further than her ideal.

Also from that race with upside #8 SHOTGUN HOTTIE one that had a hurdle giving up recency off the 195-day layoff and one that has a history of racing herself into shape. She also showed speed perhaps by default without HOT AND SULTRY in that role and while SHOTGUN HOTTIE can press she can also stalk and projects to return to that trip here given the complexion of the field and added speed with #5 SADDLE UP JESSIE showing up here today.

Class is the test for #7 TINY TEMPER making her graded stakes debut. Going back to her career debut, she showed ability, had to deal with layoffs and has shown improvement. She will be tested here and off the most recent start, a strong effort though one where she was entered MTO in an off the turf allowance.

#2 BELLAMORE could get attention here off the win and big figure last out. She was game on the day though potentially taxing and requires a top effort here as this is a step up in class. #1 SOUL OF AN ANGEL is tough to make a strong case for on the win end though on her best day she can pick up a minor share at big odds, like she did last month in the G2 Royal Delta at GP. 

SANTA YSABEL (G3):

#2 SHILOH'S MISTRESS will make her first start and against winners and fourth start at a fourth different track with a level of class to travel and hold form. She has shown improvement with each start and coming into this race off her works in the morning. This spot is a competitive group and has some strength for the fillies leading into the KY Oaks (G1) and SHILOH'S MISTRESS looks to be part of that group. She worked on 3/4 in company with Brunch With Amy one that has a look racing on the Friday card. 

SAN SIMEON (G3): 

This is a competitive event and a case for many contenders even those showing up fresh:

#8 AIR FORCE RED comes back for Powell fresh and to a familiar course. He has been training steadily, appears race ready, and the barn (and F. Dettori) have been sending out live looking to keep up that momentum.

#7 LANE WAY makes a belated return though could hold into for this spot. He has a solid recorded over this course and in graded stakes company. On class he could present the edge over stablemate #5 SUMTER one that has the edge on recency exiting Clockers' Corner Stakes in this second start of his form cycle. 

#6 OTTOMAN PRINCE is a new face as he makes his local debut and should get a lot of attention for the connections and Prat aboard. He has be training locally and fit coming into this race and the longer bodied type should be fine for this extended sprint distance. 

BEHOLDER MILE (G1):

Mandella has a pair of quality fillies in this race and a confident move bringing back #9 WINDOW SHOPPING in this spot off the layoff. As an individual she showed class since her debut and improved with the added ground with a solid local record. She closed out the 2023 season in the Zenyatta (G2) the placement at the time did not appear well intended and the only sophomore in the compact four horse field. While she has some hurdles returning here in a competitive field, she has upside, is the tome that can fire fresh and off her works looks very live - especially the 3/6 blowout where she was under a big hold and just wanted to run.