Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 SHATTUCK takes the much needed class drop showing up today in the third start of the season. Going back to the opening day debut he showed some run in spots and also from a physical standpoint one that could STRETCH out in distance. He had the distance change last month though did not handle the off track chasing inside. Hernandez will take over today as Torres sticks with #5 GREERS FERRY another that projected to move up on the class drop and did just that last month. He had a subtle TRAFFIC trip and should benefit from the race on the day as he was making his local debut and has that experience and conditioning in this second start of the cycle.

Also returning from the 2/11 common race and back at the route distance gives #3 AMBIGIOUS the edge over #7 GOLDEN PLATE with both similar on figures and the lack of progression for the two as individuals has them placed accordingly at the MCL level. Asmussen picks up AMBIGIOUS from Miller, as they send out #6 ANNIVERSAIRE D’ORO one of the two older horses in the field. While this one must continued to improve, that upside could be present and stretching out today should show some early speed something that could present an edge over some others in here from a pace standpoint. 

#5 IGNITIS should be sitting on a peak effort coming into this race and back at the sprint distance. Even though this will be his sixth start since coming back from the layoff in November, this is his third start of this current cycle and should be sitting on that top effort, a similar pattern on 12/29, a higher condition and since that race has improved his figures with another forward step projected here.

#1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE at the rail once again takes the class drop for this third start of the season and in his career. The move appears the right one to find the level where he can compete and back at the shoring distance where he was more competitive and stronger figure back on 2/4. #2 VALE is logical here though likely to be favored for the connections and off the recent in the money finishes. This could be the time and place for him to step up and get that win, though must do so as he has had some favorable trips and without excuse in those minor finishes and similar form and consistency carries to #6 LORD GRANTHAM one that is a touch lighter on numbers. 

#2 LAKE RADIO should be a big favorite in here and the horse to beat. He will take the big drop for the third start this season and coming back in this second start of the cycle from a higher level allowance with a rough start two weeks ago. Keying off his prior form, class and with Arrieta and the blinkers on this one should show early speed and put himself in the race right from the jump.

#5 INVARIABLY could rebound here as lacked recovery leading into the 2/16 race after posting a top effort of the cycle and working hard in a less than ideal trip for the January place finish. He could offer slightly more value than #8 SLAM DUNK SERMON, one that going back to last year was turning in numbers that would win this race for fun though since the layoff return in August he yet to return to those efforts though showing some mild improvement race-to-race.

 #3 OTIS OTIS OTIS could spice things up as one that is sure to be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions. He has the benefit of conditioning coming into this race and some subtle trips along the way including a TROUBLE trip back in January. 

there should be some value in this race with #2 BALSA in the field one that is capable though should get attention off the recent figure and finish on 2/9, a day where his former barn was live with three winners on the card and BALSA likely recorded a top effort on the day.

#8 MAHONEY ROAD will make a belated second start this season and looking for some redemption since the January race, a TROUBLE+ trip that might have cost him a better position if not the win. They were entered to return under similar conditions last month, a vet scratch on the day though does show two published works since.

#1 ALL CHOKED UP cuts back to the sprint distance and should be the right move and timing for this one back under similar claiming condition. The class drop gave him a look last month though there was some concern with the distance and pace scenario, something that appeared to play a role in the outcome and should be dismissed off the recent running lines.

#4 TIRICO looks to hold some intent showing up in this spot and similar placement when they were entered and a vet scratch from last month. This will be his third start this season and the right drop for this one as he had some subtle trips in allowance company though overall did not appear on the level of his competition. #5 WESTERN GHENT also has been looking for the right level, there is some preference to others though would not dismiss this one if he is overlooked on the board and the main opinion is taking on BALSA as the favorite. 

#1 BETTY JO could be sitting in the right time and place showing up in this spot with some changes for the third start back this meet. Going back to 12/15 she was giving up recency, had a subtle trip and the Moquett barn starting off slow at the time something to consider. She returned of the two month break and should benefit from the start and conditioning in open company last month and this even for the higher tag is combined with a lower race par.

#6 GOLD STRATEGY was upgraded with the changes in class last month, a belated drop that she appreciated on the day and responded with the show finish and returns today under similar conditions to hold her form. #2 MISSY PIGGY is a bit of a stab as she requires to run back to her CBY turf form to compete here. Perhaps this would be the time for her to jump up as one that races herself into shape and finds hidden class relief off her races this season could have her in the right spot amongst friends.

#4 LITTLE BURRITO, big layoff coming back for this race from the 707-day break. She is back at the right level to compete and for live connections and that alone can be tough to dismiss.

#3 COLD AS HELL returns to starter allowance company and with Juarez back aboard. They ran under similar conditions going back to opening day, though for that event caught a tough group, higher race par and COLD AS HELL 5^th place finish was credible staying on as the BOS through a solid pace with the top three from off the pace.

After a string of success last week trainer Jordan Blair is on the radar and showing up in this spot with #4 G T FIVE HUNDRED a horse that fits in his own right. This will be the second start this meet and of the cycle wheeling back from the 2/23 event on the two week turnaround. The trip was subtle and less than ideal ride forced to rate along the inside.

#7 OWN THE FIELD could be flying under the radar for the connections and in this spot off the layoff for a seasonal debut. The layoff return is nothing new for this one, it is something he has struggled with since his juvenile debut back in the summer of 2022. That history could come into play here as the type that likely must come out race ready. He has a steady strong of works into this race and placed protected where he can still compete.

#6 J J’S JOKER can also be considered. He will be required to show up with a top effort coming back from a top effort three weeks ago, though that one race makes him eligible here to race protected for Sharp first off the claim. 

As an individual #4 LET’S DUET is arguably the horse to beat. She has recorded some of the higher figures and done so consistently at this allowance condition. With that said, she has come up short on the win end with her runstyle from off the pace being the prime hurdle along the way and must still be considered here.

The early speed from #6 RED RIVER MAGIC could be an asset in this case. She has recorded figures on par and intent for this type of race and distance this season and find a better draw from the outside post, a concern overall last month. Her stablemate #9 MALIBU SMART has been consistent and can be along for another minor share. She has the stamina on her side though in terms of class and figures could still be on the lighter side – something that also should be noted for #1 UNSTABLE PRINCESS though at longer odds can be one to include for the deeper minors.

Also returning from the 2/18 common race, #3 WILDWOOD BYE one that had some questions with the route distance though had some buried class and figures that gave her a longshot look. She will return today at the route distance though from a BTL effort where she had legit TROUBLE+ showing run through TRAFFIC at  multiple points of call. 

#7 OSBOURNE should find the right conditions and intent coming back in this spot and back to a sprint in this second start of the cycle. He is upgraded from that allowance last month with the one turn distance change and also a subtle flow upgrade from the Ring the Bell stakes opening week.

#8 SIR WELLINGTON also given the same upgrade from the Ring the Bell stakes and has held his form this season. He will return wit ha rider change and could be the right move for this horse and off a less than ideal trip two weeks ago. Arrieta has some experience on this one here at Oaklawn a deep dive through his pp’s to find those races back in 2021.

The outside draw could be a benefit to #9 EDGE TO EDGE one of two showing up here for Hartman. On his best day he has recorded some of the higher figures in this field one of those here in December. #3 EXCESS MAGIC has held his form as of late and will look to continue just that wheeling right back for the third start this season.

#1 GUN PILOT handled the distance change shortening up off the layoff coming back this season to win at the FG in January. He might have just been better than the group on the day and does find a step up in class and company on this circuit. His former stablemate #2 LARK’S MISCHIEF makes his local and seasonal return now under the care of Mike Maker claimed for the higher $80k tag back in November. This spot could signal intent with the return to Oaklawn, a course he has a solid record over and perhaps the idea when they picked this one up.

#4 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK must find his old self to compete here though has the races throughout his career that would put him in the mix. He was scheduled to return in a higher AOC last month, though a trainer scratch on the day and perhaps the off track played a role in that decision. Court was assigned to ride that day and had been aboard this one in the past and with some success on this circuit paired back in 2022. 

An evenly matched group with horses like #10 PENZIG and #11 ART QUEEN logical types and going out for live barns and consistent #3 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN all as capable types. There is also room to get creative with some lightly raced types where those two along with others have shown who they are.

#5 RITA’S REVENGE could be sneaky in here as she makes her second start. She had been entered three times all vet scratch before the debut two weeks ago. A couple of those scratches were during this meet and at the lower MCL level they show up in today. She should be fit with that initial start under her belt and showing early speed as part of a Fast duel before backing up and intent wheeling right back in this spot.

#1 BAINBRIDGE DANCER takes the significant drop as she returns today to make a belated second career start. Based on the debut figure, she might not require much improvement should she run back to that effort that fits right on par and right in with this group.

#4 SHE’S TABOO takes a subtle trip and some upside from her races this season. She has shown the tendency to break slow and the pattern of making a RUSH for position before losing ground. The drop should move her up naturally though still requires to show more or at the least continue to hold form. The SLOG pattern for #2 ANGELIC VISION is a concern though given credit for a sneaky good BTL effort back on 1/1.