« 03/20/2024 | 03/22/2024 » |
Thu March 21st, 2024 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Oaklawn Park Race 1
Post Time 12:30 PM CST
#8 MOUNT CRAIG is a tough horse to trust given the overall
record at the same time his consistent form and figures could land this horse
in the right time and place to clear this belated hurdle. He has shown tactical
speed the ability to finish and has plenty of stamina for the slight addition
of ground in this second start off the layoff. #3 CROSSING is one of the other
4yo following a similar pattern and with local experience. As far as class he
has some question marks though recency and maturity could overcome in this
case. #4 MACKMAN like many with the circuit switch will find the class rise.
While he has that test he has the foundation from the lone juvenile start, a
race where improvement was expected and after the time off turned in a credible
effort in his layoff return last month at the FG and holding his form from that
race should translate in this field.
Oaklawn Park Race 2
Post Time 1:06 PM CST
#1 SPEITFUL SAM brings a lot of upside into this race and in
the right spot to compete. He follows a forward every other pattern, finds the
class drop to place him at the right level and the shorter distance last out
with Bejarano aboard. Perhaps the only downside here will be the number as he
does project to be shorter today compared to the other races this season.
#10 INVARIABLE also should find the right spot. He has held
his form this season and coming back today with a subtle form cycle improvement
pattern, a similar pattern going into the 1/26 race when he turned in a strong
effort on the day, the type of effort that makes him a contender here. Common
rival from back on 2/16, #9 FORSAKEN also fits this race condition and a
logical type with current form and tactical speed to work out a trip in this
field. He can step up here in his current cycle, some regression could have
followed after peaked clearing the N2 condition back in late January and after
stepping up to N3 last month with a WIDE trip should move up with today’s
field.
Oaklawn Park Race 3
Post Time 1:42 PM CST
Number wise there is not much between #6 ART QUEEN and #9
PLEASINGLY off their form this season and consistency that fits here once
again. Tactically PLEASINGLY has shown more early speed though has lacked
finish something of a contrast to ART QUEEN as she has been able to improve
position late and picking up rivals. Broberg will take over off the claim and
off the claim for a solid John Ortiz barn where it might be tough to make much
improvement first out especially off the quick 11-day turnaround.
#7 DANCE MY WAY also falls into that category and does have
an old school angle here as the lone mare in the field and back from the 3/1
common race. #5 PETIT JEAN also one of the older runners and a lightly raced
type. She did not give herself much chance missing the break (VSLOG) on debut.
Timothy Martin has started to find success as of late and
with a pair of first time starters there could be intent. #3 SUGAR COATED was
entered back on 2/9 in a $20k MCL, a stewards scratch that day she lands here
with a pair of works since. The most recent move could have been in company
with #4 READY FOR WINE one that makes her debut with Zimmerman, often a live
rider for this outfit.
Oaklawn Park Race 4
Post Time 2:17 PM CST
Maker could turn up with a pair in this race: #1 SAQEEL
appears pointed to this race a return fresh off the 75-day break with the class
and barn change for the same owner group. They could also be hopeful for a dry
racetrack something that has not been in the cards for them this winter season.
#3 CAMP DAVID finds a subtle change in class from the open $50k claiming event
last month and overall form and tactical speed to fit today’s race shape. He
prefers to race clear on the lead or outside horses, a trip he could find with
#2 CATDADDY one with early speed to his inside.
#4 EXPENSIVE CUT should be sitting on a top effort here; he
has shown progression with each start racing himself into shape and confidence
with the change in finishing position. He comes out of a common race with #5
UNINVITED GUEST back on 1/13 a race that looked to be a prep off the layoff and
now the two trade recency returning here and could be the separator for those
two.
Oaklawn Park Race 5
Post Time 2:47 PM CST
#1 LAURA BRANIGAN fits off her current form this season,
form she should be able to hold first off the claim and back under similar
conditions here. While she has been consistent figures and finishing position
she also has been consistently SLOG and should be factored into the price and
play here. #8 GREEK HEIRESS also returns from the 2/17 common race and with the
barn change. Her former trainer, Broberg sent out the winner Berties Cause in
that race and while she does not have to face her here with less intent she
still must show up and improve at this level. Diodoro picks up #7 TOFFEE one
that will make an aggressive drop off the claim and looking to move up on this
circuit. The timing and placement along with the WEATHER appeared less than
ideal back 1/27 and coming off a solid effort maiden win and taking on winners
that day. She has some early speed and routing though should still be able to
find a trip in today’s race shape.
The early speed is likely from the Asmussen runners starting
with #3 SUGAR MAMAS CAKERY as that has been the method of her success. She has
questions with current form especially with the pattern of layoff lines that
has been present throughout her career – something also in play for #6
HARMONICA something she looks to offset with the class drop. Form is less of a
question #4 LIL TOWN SIS one that has been consistent this season and should
hold her form once again though might just require that to be a enough.
Oaklawn Park Race 6
Post Time 3:18 PM CST
#3 THANKS FRANK scratched from a higher $50k MCL event last
weekend and figures some intent with the connections picking this spot instead.
He had a look returning from the layoff and class drop earlier this month.
While there might have been some intent with the change, the SLOG had him
compromised though still showed run making a WIDE move something that is not
easy to see in the running line and finishing position.
The class drop also comes into play for #4 ROCKETEIGHTYEIGHT
one that is who he is and the change all around should move him up naturally
and returning to the 12/31 effort he makes himself a main player. #8 MIRAGE has
paired up two in the money finishes from off the pace this season and with the
pattern of SLOG and lacking early speed he should be looking for similar. Race
flow did seem to assist in those cases and with the runstyle all around needs a
lot in his favor to win, though can get in the mix.
#6 PATRIOT HILLS has shown improvement race to race and finds
the distance change after losing ground in the two route races this season.
That could be the right change and with tactical speed and stamina along with
Torres sticking aboard. The change in class is more of a lateral move for #2
SIR OTTO shifting to MCL company for this second start and must show
improvement and not the most confident move to debut late and drop without
hesitation.
Oaklawn Park Race 7
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
A competitive group of sophomore fillies many that will face
off again here again back from the 12/31 common race: A new face to that group #1
SPIN THE BREEZE could be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing
positions coming into this race. While the two turns might not have been her
thing in January, the effort last month was competitive despite finishing off
the board. Isolating those sprint races and figures she stacks up in this group
and surface returning to the main track as she shifts over to this circuit.
SPIN THE BREEZE also has some hidden early speed something
that could change things up in here and put pressure on #3 HUSH IT HONEY one
that was dominant as the BOS back on 12/31 though today’s group a step up in
class from that event though a better spot in terms of class and shorter
distance after the Martha Washington stakes try.
#7 HITTIN MY STRIDE is logical of the Diodoro pair as she
returns off the 48-day freshening. She landed in a similar timing with a strong
place effort back on 12/31 and caught eventual stakes winners in the 2/2
allowance. Hartman will also send out a pair in this race with #9 READY FOR
TROUBLE the more established of the two though giving credit to #5 JANUARY
JUBILEE one that has two wins in her three starts. The12/31 common race was not
a race she was intended for on the day and drawing a line through that race and
picking up the two win figures another figure improvement does not have her far
off those other rivals.
Oaklawn Park Race 8
Post Time 4:22 PM CST
#5 PATTERN BET should be sitting in the right spot and
intent with the rider change as Bejarano takes back over. She is looking for a
better break something that has been an issue throughout her career and in the
two starts this season. The barn returns with #1 SULWE one that shifts back to
a sprint, a slight class rise though overall form that fits with this field and
like PATTERN BET has some tactical and early speed, something we could see here
with the rider change and rail draw.
#10 RUN FEARLESS might been sneaking into this race under
the radar. She comes into this race with progressive form in the third start
off the layoff with back numbers and class that fit today’s race. She has some
early speed that can be effective in today’s race shape even with the outside
post. #8 CHAI TEA also has held her form this season and can project
improvement after the X_WIDE trip last month as well as a rider change that
could suggest further intent today. #11 HEATED ARUGMENT has been overmatched at
this level though at longer odds can be left into the exotic mix.
Oaklawn Park Race 9
Post Time 4:55 PM CST
#6 RED VOLTA finds a hidden class change to run here and
should be overlooked off her current form. She has the foundation from the
races this season and upside not only with the change in class but subtle
change in post off the inside and reuniting with Harr along with second Lasix.
#9 RAETASTIC finds a subtle change in class though more obvious distance change
first off the claim for Rosin. Going back to the debut on 1/1, a race to key
off of with a similar par and visually showing run in spot making an inside
MOVE through TRAFFIC.
#1 CATTY CRUISE also finds the distance change returning
here. Some further intent could be in play with one that has been pointed to
this meet and the connections cutting back adding the blinkers and a rider
change looking to mix things up and on her best day she has turned in the r
aces on par with others in this field.
#3 TIZ A STRATEGY is one of the older runners in this field
and a lateral change in class making the shift to open company. While she needs
a lot in her favor she fits this race, has current form and upside off the
trips along with a better draw coming back from the outside post earlier this
month.