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Sat March 23rd, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
#2 UPBEAT MELODY sneaks into this race with the conditions posting
his two wins in 2023 though the recent win in May just weeks before the
eligibility cutoff. He will return to HAW the shorter distance, Baird aboard
and with a steady string of works – all around intent for this spot on opening day.
#9 LYRICAL POET also has early speed and will look to clear as he makes the
surface switch to stay on the dirt. He could deal with others in that role and has
never passed a horse. The far outside could be the big hurdle for #14 FEROCITY
(AE) if he clears the first big hurdle of drawing in.
#3 ONE LAST HAND also holds a pair of wins from early in
2023 and comes back today fresh for Watkins a barn that had a strong 2023
season and starting off 2024 with a win at TP and OP. The shorter 5f distance
could be a test for this one though can project them to show early speed as
many for this barn often do and similar for J. Felix. The shorter distance for
#8 RUSSIAN TO WIN is the bigger unknown that current form for live connections.
He has been training locally and facing tougher last season he fits on those factors.
The recency and shorter distance is the advantage for #11 HINK’S PALADIN,
though the only advantages as he comes into this race lighter than many others.
#5 BREAKING NEWS has the one win last year, a win under similar
$5k conditional claiming company. The majority of his races were contested at a
higher class, purse and par though requires a massive turnaround something that
could be in play given the freshening, a live rider in A. Centeno and could
also look for a front wrap removal with the wraps added in those most recent
three starts.
Granted #7 ALPINE GHOST was “second off” when he made his 2023
seasonal debut on 3/16 but that race was a legit effort in the 4th
place result sprinting 5f behind the pacesetters and if the pace is contentious
or there is some bunching up he is one that could benefit from that scenario
and just land in the right time and place.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:08 PM CST
Rivelli FTS starters take a lot of wagering support and for
fair enough reason as they often win. There are two in this field where the
older and Baird aboard #1 CROWN ROYAL KID is likely to be fancied over #6
SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD though probably not be much.
#8 MY TENNIS SHOES is one of the 4yo and one of the few
coming into this race with current and solid form from the FG meet. He turned
in a BTL effort on 2/9 and competitive show finish racing on the off-track
through TRAFFIC. While he has that going for him, he has not shown much early
speed and while he could be a solid anchor to hit the board the run style and
shorter distance is something to consider for the top spot.
#5 LATE BLACKSMITH might be worth getting creative with. He
is statebred bonus eligible, a 4yo, showed early speed first out, has recent
works and some subtle changes in class with the blinkers added. They could
present upside over #4 GOD GUNS N GUTS one that finds the right class change
with the DROP returning to this circuit.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:36 PM CST
#1 ROBUST took a tough beat and did a lot of running staying
on as the BOS last month at DeD. The effort was potentially taxing though
should have some recovery with the 36-day break since that race off the bench,
a quicker turnaround would be more concerning. They have early speed though
also have passed horses and do so from an inside post. That could be key here
with other E/EP horses in the field including #7 MCVICKER a main threat for
Vanden Berg as a lightly raced type that will take on older though first time
to run for a tag and looks to be very dangerous.
#5 MINNESOTA MOON will cutback to a sprint something he has only
done one other time but might be the right move for this one. The drop in class
is another positive as he is who he is and just needs to find the right group. He
has the one start this year back on 1/11 chasing WIDE early before losing ground
in a race that has held form and could present a further positive here.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:04 PM CST
As noted in Race 2, Rivelli runners get a lot of attention
in these type of spots and likely to be the case here with the lightly raced
second time starting #3 GIANNO though this is a different game. They will make
a second start must step forward, take on older and do something new as they
stretch out in distance with all of those factors needed to project a competitive
outcome here -and something that requires price compensation to make that leap.
It is also worth noting they have been entered a couple times since the
November debut, both races scheduled for turf and at the $32-30k MCL condition.
#9 REGIMENTAL is likely going to be the alternative and in
contrast has established form and recency out of the FG meet and on the one week
turnaround. The timing can go one way or another too much too soon or a ready
horse that after today will get a break. His main track races have been sneaky
good. His highest figure at CD around two turns and has a show finish with a
less than ideal trip here last July and a full EX - EXCUSE trip with TROUBLE on
1/7 at FG.
Perez has a pair of older, more seasoned, established
maidens that could take to these conditions and the edge in this field: #2 WOLF
HUNTER is the most established though has consistent figures on the main and
route distance and familiarity with Lezcano; #10 MONEY AGENT is unproven on the
dirt and willing to give a pass to the lone dirt start with the time off that
followed. He has upside all around and from the “trips” last year, proven
around two turns and today’s race par being softer than the events last year
moves him up naturally.
#8 WICKED GUS debuted in a common race with #7 ELECTRIC
CHARGE back on 11/4 at FanDuel and was a good debut given the challenges going
two turns first out, taking on older and showing run through some adversity with
the self-inflicted poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and making a MOVE X_FLOW.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:32 PM CST
While it might be worth trying to getting clever with prices
in the other maiden events, #1 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE is a use here at the projected
shorter number. He will make a belated debut as a four-year-old IL-bred with
some upbeat moves coming into this race. Given the delay to career and in MSW
company this one looks as race ready as they can be and should come out
running. Outside of the Chris Block trained #9 GOOD APPLE making some changes
for this second start, the rest of the field have shown who they are and can open
the door for a “new” face to jump up.
#4 HAND OVER MY HEART is lightly raced and still can present
upside. He will step up to take on older in this sophomore debut with the
circuit switch and rider upgrade. He showed run in the starts last year and with
a stronger rider on their back for the November race they might have already
cleared the maiden condition.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
This is a clever spot for #2 MADELYN BELLE first off the claim
and returning to Hawthorne. She was claimed for $25k and as an IL-bred can run
for the higher $20.3k tag in this spot and in for a number not far off what she
was claimed for and even if claimed with a win on top makes the investment.
#4 DESSERT FIRST comes into this race with current form and
local form from last season. She broke her maiden in the first local appearance
back in November 2022 and returning here last May put in a BTL effort with the
show finish sprinting 6f; a strong run after a messy break behind a very in
form Rivelli runner called Wilma Mankiller.
#7 APRIL’S GEM also must race for a tag today though had run
for a tan last season. Last season she also pulled off the upset in the first
part of the meet (3/16) when she was able to get to the lead (rail draw that
day) and took advantage of the cold wins to a front running 17.7-1 upset score.
O. Hernandez was aboard that day and for much of the 2023 success and his
presence noted elsewhere picking up the mount on #5 SMOOTH JUSTICE. On her best
day she can be right there, though will give up recency and remains protected,
a good spot off the bench to get some fitness at the least for this IN-bred mare.
Her stablemate #6 FIRST KITTEN last seen at HS Indy make a
return to Hawthorne, a track where she is a different race horse. She along
with Centeno had a ton of success going back to 2022 and tough to ignore though
will be tested to come out running off the layoff, this type of break is one
she has not has since the spring of 2022 – she did not miss a beat since the break
she returns from today.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
This is a race to get creative and seek value with
alternatives to #4 GOLD OAK and #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT in this spot looking at
horses that might been best suited to today, not necessarily seeking out the “best”
horse in the race.
#1 JOCELYN comes in with recency some subtle trips, a sneaky
close last month and a class drop shifting to this circuit and class level. Trainer
E. Lopez has found success with their runners as of late and had a strong 2023
Hawthorne meet including early on in the season picking up multiple wins in the
first few weeks.
#5 ARRINGTON is a longtime maiden and has those reservation
and requires some of those longer odds to hold and compensate. On her side, she
has local experience and has been able to fire fresh. She showed up on this
circuit for her second career start with a competitive place finish and last season
another competitive effort sprinting on 8/27 as part of a BLANKET finish under
today’s MCL conditions.
#8 BABAS GAL has struggled with the level of competition
this year at OP, though those races have kept her fit as she shows up here with
form for this race. She is on an every other pattern and while those numbers
are not anything with a big edge the timing is on her side all around and at the
longer projected odds gets consideration.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Morning line favorite, #1 LILY’S WOOFY takes the drop here
and with eligibility with the limited starts since the layoff. She is looking
for that first win since 2022 though has maintained form, has recency and some
early speed to factor in this race and from the rail.
Following the Oaklawn season and runners from the Genaro Garcia
barn shipping in from Turfway to Hot Springs and finding success with that move
something they will look for here with #2 CAN’T BE TOUCHED. She wheels right
back for this second start of the cycle and upgraded from the WIDE trip on 3/14,
a day/week that favored inside runners and her 5th place finish was
behind the top two that finished together and clear at the wire. While there could
be intent in play, trip is noted as she has yet to pass a horse and there are many
in here that will look to show early speed and kept honest as #4 PLAY TWENTY
and #7 SMILE AT THE STORM will be out there and willing to take this field gate-to-wire.
If they go quick, that scenario assists #3 PALAGO one that
has also had success first off the bench, though would want a little more than
the 5-1 ML given her trip from off the pace at 5f. #6 TIMELESS GLORY one that
has had most of her success at longer distances though a lot of that success
here and a couple of in-the-money finishes sprinting and some trouble with the trip
sprinting and less than ideal race-to-race timing last August.
The Bahena runner (BABAS GIRL) is worth a follow in Race 8
with a similar pattern for #5 MISS WINDY SLEW exiting the Oaklawn meet and
outclassed on that circuit though keeping her fitness and conditioning by
racing. She has a further interest as an IL-bred racing for the $7500 tag a
change from the one race here closing week (9/3) in against a higher class and
a tough set of mares in Samarita, First Kitten and Long Tall Woman all next out
winners.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 6:24 PM CST
#9 BASEBALL POLITICS makes sense as the favorite; he is one
of the few in this field that fits the condition with 5wins and the most recent
back in May. He has some published works over the winter at FD and was also entered
and a vet scratch from a conditional $10k claiming event earlier this month (3/7)
at Oaklawn. While logical there are others in the field also capable and might
present better value.
#3 CRANKSHAFT with his record of 8 wins to compete here. He comes
back from the 112-day layoff though throughout his career has not finished worse
than 3rd off similar breaks. One of those, one year to the date finishing
third after making an EASY_LEAD and lacking finish at the 5.5f distance and
will be a touch shorter at the 5f here. The tactical speed and inside post
could be the edge over his main rivals drawn outside.
#11 BERNIE LOMAX is one of those “logicals” and could battle
BASEBALL POLITICS for the role of the favorite. He will also come off the
layoff and has some tactical speed which will be necessary to compete to avoid getting caught wide. A similar
trip and necessary assertive tactics will be required for #12 JRUE BREEZE one
that has the edge on recency coming out of the FG meet. He was claimed back on
2/13 has been given the proper rest and recovery in his form cycle something that
was required after running a top, a peak effort (B+) with the win back on
12/21.
#4 LAKE MILLS takes the drop as he returns from the 206-day layoff.
The drop is less of a concern after the series of minor finishes and lack of
that win in 2023. He fits at this level off the consistency from last season,
and certainly capable here; however he will come off the bench and perhaps even
more questionable the shorter distance which could have him off the pace. The
off the pace trip is also factored for #1 MAQAMAT.