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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat March 30th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Malloy - 9/5 2 Kaely's Sister - 7/2 7 Indicia - 8/1

4-MALLOY could hold the edge. She was competing in Grade 1 events last year. She was an easy winner the last time she ran here, a race originally scheduled for turf. Had a nice tune up at Turfway last month. Should be able to take care of these. 2-KAELY'S SISTER makes her first start for this barn while making her first start since 2022. Her works give away little but have to figure that Rivelli will have her ready. 7-INDICIA usually runs well here. She's had four local races and finished second in three of them. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Sweet Nellie - 9/5 2 Ribaldry [IRE] - 2/1 3 Hallie's Rainbow - 6/1

5-SWEET NELLIE will be tough to beat. She always met far better. Can easily excuse her recent efforts at Oaklawn since she was simply facing far better rivals. Could go off at a short price but does seem worth it, especially if using in horizontal wagers. 2-RIBALDRY turns back in distance. She’s been racing in routes, and only one of her 22 previous races has been at this distance, but she did manage to finish third in that effort. She generally races near the lead but, with the turn back, her speed could be tempered a bit but she could finish with a ton of run. 3-HALLIE’S RAINBOW could be the best of the speed, at least early. She has been tiring late at six furlongs but just might be able to carry her speed all the way at five.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Maligator - 6/1 3 Strange Arrange - 5/2 6 Pinballer - 5/1 8 Lucky Shot - 4/1

Going to take a flyer on 7-MALIGATOR. He could be the best closer in a race dominated by early speed types. He has some recency and a history of success on this track. Might prefer more distance but could fly by if the tiring speed comes back to him. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE is hard to gauge. Only two of his 21 races were contested on dirt and he ran poorly in both of them. But, he has been racing recently which could give him a fitness edge and he does look like he could be the best of the speed. Hard call. The pair trained by Dee Poulos, 6-PINBALLER and 8-LUCKY SHOT both own good speed and both have done well here but they could also be a part of a crowded front end speed duel which would compromise the chances of both.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Golden Hornet - 7/5 1 Comiskey Park - 6/1 4 Tilted Towers - 7/2 3 Shackleford Strong - 10/1

2-GOLDEN HORNET gets the nod but not a strong one. He does race for Rivelli and gets Loveberry as the pilot but his dull effort at Oaklawn in last could be a cause for concern. On the other hand, he was making his first start in 11 months and the company at Oaklawn is always very tough. 1-COMISKY PARK has had a bit of a case of seconditis here but he usually runs well. Didn’t like his one-paced race at Fair Grounds last time out and not crazy about his recent drills but think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.  4-TILTED TOWERS has been training well for his first start of the year. Didn’t finish 2023 in the best of form but had been good for most of the year prior. His versatility makes him an obvious threat. But if you want to use Oaklawn as a measure, take another look at 3-SHACKLEFORD STRONG. Not only did he win a starter in last at Oaklawn but he’s been incredible at Hawthorne, winning six of his nine local race while finishing second in two more. He is meeting better here but think he has a great chance at a great price.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Modazzle - 7/2 3 Robust - 5/2 8 West Island - 2/1

4-MODAZZLE might get the trip. He’s not a big closer but there appears to be more than enough speed in this race to set things up for his late run, though he has also shown speed in the past. 3-ROBUST was an impressive winner in his local debut. He didn’t win by much but he led throughout and was pressured almost every inch of the way. He’s been showing speed in every start since getting claimed by this barn but, in his past life, he appeared to be a pretty good closer. No matter which tactic they decide to use, he has a good chance of a repeat trip to the winner’s circle. You can never overlook anything Rivelli sends out and he has 8-WEST ISLAND in this spot. The horse tends to run out of gas fairly quickly but there’s always a chance that he’ll fly right to the lead and stay there, especially at this distance.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Unified Weekend - 8/5 5 Right On Richie - 3/1 4 Perfect Wager - 8/1

Hard to really like a horse that never raced on dirt but this race did come up incredibly easy. Vanden Berg claimed 1-UNIFIED WEEKEND two races back at Gulfstream in December. He didn’t show a thing in his first race for the barn but now he’s dropping to try local dirt. His drills have been ok. Guess we’ll see. 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE looks like the best, possibly only, speed in the race. Could grab the lead quickly and never look back. 4-PERFECT WAGER can close a bit. Not sure what kind of pace will develop in this race but would expect this runner to be moving well late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Beehive - 4/5 3 Cheryl's Appeal - 7/2 5 Devil - 5/1

2-BEEHIVE seems likely to graduate. She’s had four races and ran well in all of them. With little speed in the race she should be prominent from the start. Might surge to the lead quickly and never look back. 3-CHERYL’S APPEAL’s local drills haven’t been anything special but her earlier works were much better. She’s a well-bred first timer racing for a barn that has a high percentage with runners making their debut. 5-DEVIL, stablemate of top pick, shouldn’t be ignored. She finished behind her stablemate the first two times they met but missed by a neck in last year’s Debutante, beating her partner soundly. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 Wild Bout Hilary - 30/1 4 She's Inthearmynow - 3/1 5 Rainy Mountain - 8/1

9-WILD ABOUT HILARY might be an interesting runner. She wired the field in her debut at Prairie Meadows then finished up the track in her next two starts. However, she was meeting far tougher. Now she’s making her first start of the year with sharp workouts and first-time Lasix. Noteworthy is the fact that Loveberry is riding. Could be poised to surprise. 4-SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW appears to be the speediest member of the field. Most of her races took place in California. She has tended to run out of gas late but the five-furlong distance works in her favor. 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN hasn’t been working especially fast but she has been working steadily. And steady also describes her races. She’s had nine races, eight here, and she finished in the money in eight of them. However she seemed to improve greatly in last, her first start with blinkers. Wouldn’t overlook.