Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 HARD SPUN FANTASY makes his belated return and with some changes to move up naturally off the bench. Going back to his debut, the lone sprint start, he recorded a top 80 figure that fits on par with many in this field and a number that could be improved on giving the timing with that race in January of his sophomore season.

#5 TRABR’S CREED holds early speed could find a subtle flow upgrade returning here and perhaps further upside in his second start of this cycle. He could find company with the seasoned #6 CLOUD WITHOUT REIN and even #3 SAFE BET depending on the tactics today from Quinonez.

#3 SAFE BET has been on the lead as of late though did not always have that runstyle and could return to a stalking trip here. He earned his top 89 figure coming off the layoff and first local start on 12/30 though has seen his figures decline since. Granted he can be given a flow-upgrade as part of the Very Fast early pace on 3/1, he was also a voided claim that day and today’s par is higher than that event last month.

The 5.5f distance should move up horses that have some early speed and could be what longtime maiden #7 DANCIN ROCKET requires. They should be all in here with the current form and wheeling right back in this spot as one that has held his form this season and does have some shorter sprint experience including a place finish last year. That said, his overall record makes him tougher to trust on the win end.

#6 EXPRESS CRUISER has shown some early speed and figures logical in here with a change in class as he returns from the 55-day freshening. They will also return with the blinkers on and Chuan remaining aboard and had been up on #4 WILLIE CAT for their debut three weeks ago. The Morse second time starter could present upside with the race under their belt and off the published works leads up to the debut could hold some early speed as well. They return today with some suggested intent given the change in class (lower purse) and first time Lasix in solid hands with E. Esquivel taking over. They could offer longer odds than fellow second time starter #2 PAINTED SUNDAY one that debuted last month in an off-turf MSW event at the FG though late in the season did not show much outside of a wide trip and take the class plunge giving up local experience here.

#6 BACKYARD MONEY scratched from the Matron stakes to run here instead. Not only should this group be softer than the stakes field last weekend but should give her a little more time between starts and a better draw here than that race where she was on the rail in a full field and the outside preferred for her overall. Still the timing must be considered as a lot has been asked of her this meet as she wheels back once again.

#4 I’M THE BOSS OF ME finds some class relief to run here and a different race dynamic. There are some in her to keep the pace honest though perhaps not as contentious to find the right trip. #2 LET’S BE CLEAR exits some of those common races and the recent Carousel stakes though her runstyle from off the pace is noted and while the barn has been sending out live and on her best day fits, she requires price compensation with her runstyle. #1 OFF RAMP could get the jump on her and while she gives up recency from the 215-day layoff there could be intent returning to Oaklawn and fit off the recent series of works and bullet from 3/17 and regular rider Gabe Saez in the saddle.

#4 AFTER FIVE comes in for live connections off the layoff and back under similar conditions when competitive closing out 2023. They appear well intended for this event and with C. Torres back aboard. Their early speed could be a further asset in this race and race shape with a better draw than common rival #10 SANTA CRUISER one that is draw outside and distance wise might prefer a little more ground.

Trip will be key for #11 AIR COMBAT one that otherwise fits off his current form and the connections taking the class drop returning from the slight 41-day freshening. The drop appears reasonable late in the meet and for the connections that have already picked up a win and a place finish check since the claim back in November.

#1 LIGHTNING STRUCK is interesting in here. He is a reclaim for Green back on 2/19 and makes his second start off the claim. The barn had this one for just one race last season placed at today’s conditions an open $16k event and they finished second on the day, though a winning race as part of the BLANKET finish at the wire. 

#13 J J’S JOY is worth a mention should she draw in and upgraded in the selections she was left out of sitting on the AE and preferred in the spot tomorrow. She will take the class drop for the this start this season, something that should move her up naturally in this field. She is a further “flow upgrade” with her early speed and would change the complexion of the race with her in or out of this event, #1 KOKOMO STARLET one of the older runners in this field, the lone mare, has some early speed and from the rail could certainly benefit from J J’S JOY forced to wait for another day.

#11 BENT HALO also has shown some early speed this season and could be given another look at this level. Going back to 3/1 she was restless in the GATE pushed through though did not run off though did not have a clean break and was in hand (NO_PUSH) all around unable to show her best of the day. The outside draw could find a trip similar to her debut run back on 12/31 and returning to that effort makes her a major contender.

#9 AMOUREUX could also be given another look as she makes some changes for this second start of the meet. Claimed from the 3/3 event she returns under similar conditions though a distance change back to a sprint and the blinkers removed as well. There was intent to stretch her out and the distance did not appear the main issue on the day as she was stuck with the outside draw and WIDE trip unable to overcome chasing up close to a solid pace with ground loss before losing ground. #7 SHEZA SHENANIGAN also finds the distance change back to a sprint and more of a lateral change in class for this spot though a rider upgrade as Vazquez, a journeyman rider takes over here. 

#5 MOTOWN DYNAMIC should get a lot of attention with the open length win and strong maiden figure earned last month. She was able to establish a LONE lead and Slow late pace and should find some company up front in here. #6 BELLA HAZE returns to make her first start of the season and going back to her juvenile form, she showed legitimate early speed setting contentious fast paces, in solid company and those efforts fit here and even upside as she makes her sophomore debut.

A contentious pace has benefit #3 TANYA SHOWERS in the past and could find that scenario and a positive distance change back to the sprint and timing with the 32-day freshening. #2 OUR KEEPSAKE finds a subtle change in class shifting back to face fillies. She has been consistent this season though has not shown much figure improvement and that is a concern for the top spot though tough to dismiss for another minor share.

#1 SPIN THE BREEZE had a big look two weeks ago and turned in a solid effort with the barn coming right back for this event. She had the buried form and competitive sprint races and the connections running back today like they did last out for the claiming tag despite not required to do so.  

#1 EGO turned in a BTL effort in his return last month something that might be tougher to see with the running line and finishing position. He had the hurdle giving up recency and had to make a RUSH and WIDE MOVE the timing of the trip was not ideal with the race flow. His stablemate #1A HEIR TO GREATNESS will be stepping up off the N2 win into this event though has some back numbers and some tactical speed that would keep him in the mix though preference to EGO and could be where Torres lands and worth following as he is named on both.

#5 CALIFORNIA SWING turned in a solid effort coming off the bench three weeks ago and should benefit from the start and returns under similar conditions where he can compete. The race shape could have a slightly more contentious early pace though requires a similar ride from Bejarano to maintain some contact with the field and not allowed to get too detached early on.

#11 DEEP STATE is worth keeping in the mix. His form this season has been average though he does find some hidden class relief today. That could move him up in this race and has back numbers that make him a contender returning to those efforts. There is some guesswork there, though given the recent running lines, finishing positions and connections he is sure to be overlooked and hold plenty of price compensation. 

#4 INTO DISCO has held her form and shown progression this year and could land her in the right time and place. She has fitness from the first two races returning from the layoff with the WIDE trip on 2/4 and a BTL effort making a MOVE through TRAFFIC last month. The race dynamic could also work in her favor with many in this field working with early speed to assist a stalking trip.

A similar trip could benefit #7 FROSTY O TOOLE one that on her best day is a major player. She will trade for the local experience though could be some intent coming out of the stakes races and Antonio Gallardo making the trip in to ride, his first local appearance and only mount on the card.

#5 CORNINGSTONE has the local experience going back to the spring of 2023 and those two races over this course and 8.5f distance. She must improve off those races and show up with the top form she was able to produce late last season and into this year with a strong figure and show finish earning some black-type at HOU. She showed early speed that day and has that option something that could be key and useful with the potential pacesetters on her inside including fellow IN-bred, #1 BLUELIGHTSPECIAL and #3 STELLAR LILY in this field. 

Sophomore #7 BLUE EMBER has paired up some of the higher figures in her two recent stakes and will look for that to transfer here though likely favored off those numbers and a rider upgrade with C. Torres taking over.

#6 ADAMANTLY is a new face on a few fronts with the changes for this race. She will find the class drop making just her second start at the MCL level and the right move for this individual. She will make her first start around two turns and the timing for that change could be right with the conditioning and big GALLOP+ out on 3/3. #3 MELANIA T off her form this season could move up with the added ground (STRETCH) and subtle class change. Her overall form is lighter than others though could be enough for a minor share.

#11 DR WOODS MIRACLE is one of the longtime maidens in this field though could catch the right field to clear the condition. Trip will be key from the outside post and timing with her run from off the pace, though could find a contentious pace with many in here making a distance to set up that run and trip.

#5 WHO LU finds a lot of changes for this spot and changes though could be positive here though getting a lot thrown her way. She had a big look returning from the layoff for the belated second start from a key race debut. She turned in a strong figure that day with the WIDE trip and finds the class drop to run first time MCL.