Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 3 Happy Little Lill 4 Mikis Duchess 5 Razzin Jazz

T 4 Convoy Hall 5 Captain Wania 3 The Canam Banker

P 1 Four By Four 8 Manhawk 6 Tricky McWicky

T 5 American Blizz 1 Southwind Caeser 7 Er Norma

P 9 Littlebearcat 5 Big Diamond 4 Fire Shine

T 2 Tuscan Prince 6 Like Chaos 2 Passarino

T 2 Villefranche 6 Kruise On Dover 9 Epic Dreamer

P 6 Geronimo Creek 1 Brookdale J Mac 3 Chalk Hanover

P 4 Cheesy Smile 5 Mist Amber 2 Talk Curdy To Me

P 8 Southwind Circuit 1 Price Control 3 Moonwalker

P 10 Duchenne 9 Splash Of Pink 6 Jks Rollin Baby

#6 LAVER could be overlooked off the recent running line and 8th place finish; an outcome compromised by the conditions and can IMPROVE off the near "excuse" that day. Working back from the November allowance he was upgraded X_BIAS and the show finish on 12/29 was an overcorrection staying on as the BOS through X_FLOW to hold in a BLANKET at the wire. 

#8 SUPER CONSTITUTION moved up on the drop and in the current cycle that could land him in the right spot for that belated win. He shifts to an outside post in this race and with some tactical speed can put himself in the race, something he was unable to do last out getting SHUFFLE early and late on the scene with a strong CLOSE.

#3 RAM makes his second start off the claim and returning to the claiming N3 level where he was competitive earlier this season. The class change also comes with the distance change a further positive for this horse and for today’s race shape give his tracking runstyle; a style similar to #5 PRESSURE one that has held his form though will be tested to do that once again (and likely shorter odds) coming back on the 19-day rest.

#2 LEAGUE OF LEGENDS has struggled to pick up a check and top three spot this year though has continued to hold his form and record numbers that fit on par and with this field. Trip is key once again with his off the pace style though getting late in the season for the connections looking for their first win, this could be their time.

#1 KENTUCKY BOURBON appeared claimed for Oaklawn though has had setbacks including a scratch on 1/1 from a similar claiming tag though at the N2 level they are eligible for and are racing above condition here. 

#4 FROSTY VI takes the big drop for this third start and not the big sign of confidence for this filly that was picked up for $250k one year ago. Overall she has not shown much on the track to give her a big push in this spot, though the drop should move her up naturally here.

In terms of the older mares, there is not much between #5 ZONGS IRISH FROST and #7 DANCE MY WAY coming into this race and could allow the board to provide the decision on race day. Both have competitive races at the level and similar figures, DANCE MY WAY coming out of the slightly higher par events of the two.

The entry could fit in this spot and complement each other: #1 MITOLEMYBELLE will make a belated second start and class drop returning with C. Torres. She has been entered a couple times since the February debut and brings in a series of steady works here. #1A MISS TERRE finds a lateral change in class as she makes her third start though has the recency, foundation and with the pattern of SLOG has shown a late kick and with some in this field that have shown early speed and a lack of finish, she could come running to pick up horses late. 

#7 CHUN MONEY could be flying under the radar and in the right spot to compete in this second start of the cycle. He raced for the higher tag last month coming off a two month break though a higher race par in against older and faces straight sophomores in this field. He comes back as a gelding with three works since, second time Lasix, the two turn experience and would also look for the front wrap removal.

#4 ALWAYS BE SMART has shown more and presents upside off their races to date and finishing positions. Bejarano looked to have some options in this field and sicks here as they comes back for this spot and third start this season. Their debut projected upside (IMPROVE) and similar off a BTL effort after missing (VSLOG) the break in the local February debut.

With Bejarano sticking with ALWAYS BE SMART, that will find a rider change for #8 PENROD one that comes back today as a first time gelding and looking to rebound after the TROUBLE trip in January and a case to be made they have not had the chance to show their best. #3 NULLIFY will reunite with K. Asmussen and with Lukas runners firing this one can be upgraded and off their current form should they hold here in for the higher tag; though the race par created a lateral move.

The class relief should benefit #6 TELL ‘EM I’M COMING one that has form and route foundation this season, though the lack of early speed and cold rider create other hurdles. #1 MELT WITH YOU has the foundation this season should move up on the required DROP as they have not show much figure progression this season. That could carry to #2 MAJOR MACK one that has a change in post, though has had favorable trips and going back to the debut was not on the level of CHUN MONEY on opening day. 

The two Asmussen runners #4 FASTENED and #7 AMERICAN ICON are capable though the pair are likely to be short given the connections and recent finishing positions and lack an edge at the projected shorter odds in this field to look for value; #1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE catches the rail once again and with a slight 34-day freshening going first off the Moquett claim will look to return to top form. His race off the bench in February fits on par and following that event was not at the right level and even timing might have played against him in the two races that followed wheeling back on shorter rest and slightly higher par than today.

#2 UNCLE BERLEY makes a belated return though a return to Oaklawn where he had run in the past and some intent as they return here. He will require a top effort though could produce that race with the steady works coming into this event, an assertive rider in R. Vasquez and today’s race shape with their early speed. That could give them the edge and jump on #10 CRAVENSWORTH one that has held his form and competitive races at the N2 level, though their lack of early speed can leave them a lot to do late and number wise must step forward as well.

The former Dan Ward runner, #3 ASYMMETRIC must also improve though has had some subtle trips this season with the outside draw and WIDE trip that followed on 3/2 and less than ideal timing both wheeling back in two weeks and from the ride on 3/15 and has a slight freshening returning here first out for K. Jansen.

The trips and ground loss impacted #5 SIR one that must turn things around though with those slight excuses that could be the reason for the appearance of “off form” something that could follow sophomore #9 SUPER RENZO one that takes on older though a slight drop in terms of tag and par with their early speed that could impact the race shape and try to hold for a share. 

#4 SEVEN FLAT gets another look at this level and wheeling back from a subtle BTL effort given the trip last month under similar conditions. This will be the third start off the layoff and has shown progression and intent race to race and lands back in the right level to compete. #5 LIL SWEET THANG returns from the same 3/9 common race though despite longer odds than SEVEN FLAT on the day that should shift here returning from the place finish.

The two outside runners, #8 DANCE SOME MO and #9 CABALLO FELIZ should keep the pace honest especially with #2 SOUTHERN SUNSET in this field and on their inside coming off a from running win last out to clear the N2 condition, something of a slight step up in class here. That scenario could create enough pace for #7 LONG CROW to target. He brings in form from the races this season at the N3 level and might benefit from the slight 53-day freshening they come back from in here.

A solid pace has assisted #1 HARLEEZY in the past and since their dominant win back in January the connections have kept this one protected and not as effective in the allowance conditions. They could cycle back to a top given the time to reset and that timing paired with the class drop back to claiming company. 

#3 THE REDS drops into straight claiming company and the connections have done their best to place him where he can compete without having to make this clear class change throughout his career. His one race back in claiming company was competitive place finish at KEE with a similar par and purse last October. The connections were holding to catch the surface switch entered MTO last month at the FG unable to get that to go and rerouted for this spot.

#6 ROMAN CENTURIAN returns with a slight class and key rider change (TACTIC- last out) looking to get back on track and to competitive ways. He has shown run in spots this season in contentious events and while this spot is no layup, his form should be buried enough to create price compensation here.

#1 PERFECT FLIGHT could land in the right spot to rebound and with some subtle changes and a confident move to take this spot a slight step up in class first off the claim. While this one must return to his top form to compete, he has held his form this season and upgraded from that 3/17 race when chasing in the pocket on a race day with the course favoring off-the-pace runners. The rider change to Vazquez, could also signal intent; he was aboard for a win and their place finish in the La Jolla (G3) going back to the CA racing days. 

The class drop for #1 YOU VEE CEE was logical looking to place them where they can compete at the statebred level in the 3/17 common race. They ran a solid race chasing inside up close to the pace on a day where the course assisted horses from off the pace and Holding Pattern, the winner from well off the pace and even #3 STOMPING HOTROD was in TRAFFIC before making their first run to hold for place. #4 HERTIAGE PARK set the pace on that day, given the upgrade here though one that must show up and run back to his top efforts to compete though could be the time and value off the recent running lines that bring upside. His front end trip could be assisted with #14 MACCO ROCCO on the AE and one that would bring early speed should that one fail to draw in.

#7 IM THE MACHINE wheels right back for the second start this meet and could be the right timing and placement for this one. Going back to the layoff return last month, he had a look off his prior form and runstyle though on race day was COLD on the board, a sign this one could need the race and ran to it on the track. The timing coming back in two weeks with the class DROP and fitness from the WIDE trip could have him sitting on an improved effort and overlooked in this group.

#12 CHOCTAW ZIP takes what looks like the drop in class however today’s par is higher than his recent events. His runstyle fits today’s race and overall has been consistent though could be a shorter number in this field off the recent finishing positions and if that is the case would look for others for the top spot, though can be left in the mix. 

#3 FLASHY LASS has improved with each race this season and while she requires another step forward this could be the time for her. She had the excuse back on 2/11 and caught the outside post last month and poor WEATHER conditions all season. #6 PARIS STYLE has held her form and shown progression at the level and more obvious of the pair with the place finish, the photo with race winner, Insensitive. #4 WILDWOOD BYE takes a different N1 allowance path into this race and while she is tough to known off her efforts this season she does not have much time between starts requires another top effort and today distance is slightly longer than her ideal and the price could be as well.

#1 ROSE PARADE and #8 MY GOOD FORTUNE book end the field on post as well as runstyle. ROSE PARADE will take on winners though the connections patient to wait for this route event rather than run in a similar N1 allowance last week at the 6f distance. She is not a need the lead type, however with the complexion of this field she projects to be forward early on and could take the lead if required. #8 MY GOOD FORTUNE has the pattern of SLOG and making the late CLOSE something she showed in the 3/7 common race. She comes into this race with form though a deeper closer and does appear pace/trip dependent. 

Santa Anita is on break this week and could be part of the reason Baffert and Juan Hernandez make the trip and lone appearance on the card with #1 GRAZIA. This filly gives up recency as she returns from the layoff to make her season al debut, though off her works appears race ready. For this filly the rail draw is not the most ideal though could make it work in this group and show early speed something to her debut though on that day she was not inside.

Looking at some of the “less obvious” fillies in this group ones that could be overlooked off recent running lines and for their connections: #5 DIVINE GAL returns to a sprint distance and seems some further intent with that change and timing back on two week. She had some subtle trips in those route events and not the distance alone something that could give her another look going longer at the same time improve off those efforts.

#3 FLOATING BEAUTY had a big test to close out 2023 in the Years End stakes as she was coming off a dominant maiden win giving up local experience and a distance/class change for a second start. The timing also was not ideal for her as ran a huge race first out, the type of effort that could require recovery to get back to another peak performance and does not have to face Tarifa, a rival from the 1/20 FG event, one that could be one of the KY Oaks favorites. FLOATING BEAUTY has that time since to regroup and reset also noting the connections passing the Sunland Park Oaks as they look to get back on track here. 

#1 COLT FICTION could be well intended off the claim for the live connections and a rebound is not out of the question. He was claimed last month as the favorite and failed in that role though was compromised with the SLOG and from the inside unable to recover. They have a couple of bullet works for the new connections and live rider in Torres.

#5 LAMUTANAATTY remains at the claiming level, a change that looked positive and resulted in the part of the BLANKET finish last month. They takes a subtle change from that open claiming event first off the Rarick claim and given a little more time between starts with the 36-days and with a live rider with Arrieta aboard. #6 CRÈME DE LA CHROME also finds that subtle class change from open company into this conditional claiming event. They have held their form this season and in terms of runstyle that fits today’s race shape. His runstyle is similar to #12 CIBOLO one that must return to his top form on this circuit and a lateral change in class for the new connections claimed from live connections back in February.