Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 TIZWOW is upgraded in this race looking at OptixPLOT a position in line with #1 LIBERTY’S HAULER one that should be shorter of the two. TIZWOW has some hurdles to overcome on the win end though should hold the morning line in this race and could be overlooked for the connections with upside given the benefit of a start this season and upside on the class drop. While they did come up short at this $12.5k N2 level last year, the race par for those events was higher than today and there were some competitive sprint efforts and figures many that carried into the summer series at FAN with returning and maiden win rider Victor Bailon aboard.

#3 MR. CHIVAS shows up on this circuit for Manley and the barn had a similar runner last weekend in Cocktail Cutie finishing second. Following that pattern, MR. CHIVAS has form on his best day and favorable runstyle with the subtle distance change and second start off the layoff and only the second time in for the claiming tag. Chris Emigh had been aboard Cocktail Cutie last week and his presence is noted on #10 PHILIPSBURG in this race. This one finds a lateral change in class with the circuit since and one that has been consistent number wise something they will look to transfer today on the dirt for the first time.

#6 NEON DEION has the edge in local experience over the other two. Number wise he is on the lighter side, though could present upside given the races last year as a sophomore. He will return to the main track and for a claiming tag, something they have tried to avoid though at the same time need to place him here he can compete, and this could be it. 

The potential for a contentious early pace should benefit #4 NO NANNETTE NO in this spot and off the slight freshening returning to Hawthorne. She holds form at this level from last year and a win over this main track under a similar par as today’s event back on 8/24.#5 ZENCHUA SKY also has a strong late kick could benefit from a stretch out in distance, though number wise is lighter than others in this field.

Morning line favorite, #6 TIMELESS GLORY has two wins over this course and at this level from last season. One of those was a “match race” last June and benefit form a perfect trip on 8/10. The timing could suggest intent as she makes her second start off the layoff and stretch out in distance, though projects to be a much shorter number today than the 15-1 last out though the form from the 3/23 Lily’s Woofy race has held up going forward. Trip wise she could find early contention or at the least forced to put herself in the race with #2 EMITYAAZ; one that has some of the stronger figures on her best day that make her the horse to beat and even the horse to catch on the front end. The layoff lines coming into this race create some reservations, though E. Gallardo taking the call is a positive.

Brian Cook could look to play spoiler sending out a pair in this race: #3 STACK SHACK takes this drop back in for the $5k tag, a level where she was competitive this season at the FG and appears the right timing for her stretching out in this second start of the season.

Chris Emigh picked up the win aboard Go Stormin Girl last week for Brian Cook and noted as this pair return with #1 LOONA LUV from that common race. Go Stormin Girl was fancied of the pair on the day though in this spot LOONA LUV could move up presenting some upside for this race and at this level. Prior to the race two weeks ago her other two starts on this circuit were contested at the higher $12.5k condition and coming back from the 3/31 race, she showed run after bobbling (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate, SAVED ground and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. The added ground to a route could be a positive and intent here.

This is a tough race where a chase can be made for every horse in this field. The case for #2 SALLY’S SURPRISE is one of value though buried form that could land in the right time and place. The barn has #6 VISIONISTA and could bet the intended of the two and holds form at the route distance, an unknown for SALLY’S SURPRISE. With that change and post and in this field, she could present early speed and with the main players in the race, stalk-and-pounce types, there is a scenario where SALLY’S SURPRISE could look to clear and carry the field. She has numbers on par with the main rivals in this field including her stablemate and form over this course and allowance condition going back to the races last year at this level contested at a higher par than today. 

Longshots to upgrade from Plot: #7 BABA’S BOY will look to turn things around for Bahena and themselves returning to this circuit. Trips and class have been contentious at Oaklawn and could return to form on this circuit, class change and back with Ulloa, a rider that has been aboard in the past including one of their recent wins over this course and distance in November 2022. A return to their better days does not have them a “longshot” quite the opposite as a top effort has them as one of the horses to beat. #3 FUTURE VISION one that does not look to hold an edge “on paper” though could move up in this race shape.

#8 WHERE’D THE DAY GO scratched from that 3/24 common race and fits at this level and in this spot with their early speed and perhaps some intent to follow as well with tactical speed that can present a threat (Quad I) in this race shape. He could find company with #9 SIERRA HOTEL in this field, one that has comparable turf form though will be tested with the surface switch and to move forward off their current form needed to compete.

In terms of the 3/24 race: #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT gets another look returning from a competitive claiming event on opening weekend. The winner of that race, Impulsiveness rallied from well off the pace and CHRISTMAS PRESENT was chasing early with some ground loss and adversity a similar trip though not the ground saving run for #1 FLASHY RICHIE and could look for similar here and what should be a much shorter number today. #4 MILLARD’S SMILE finishing 4^th and BTL as he was caught WIDE and put in a strong late CLOSE. 

#7 MAQAMAT is upgraded from the effort and placement on opening day and remaining on the main track and sprinting where he has shown his better races to date. Going back to 3/23 event he needed the race and the move off the rail – the effort showed ore run with the majority of the running after the wire/GALLOP+.  The changes in play here should have him competitive in this spot timing as many A. Meraz runners needed their first start and the barn has started to show up with live runners as of late he should be sitting on a peak effort.

Looking at the Plot, MAQAMAT should find a trip similar to #2 SCHMOOZIN and #6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and in agreement with the ML, could sit higher of that group come post time.

In terms of ML favorite, #1 SNOOZER he has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though will be required to transfer that form to this circuit and off the layoff as well as in today’s race shape, a downgrade on the OptixPLOT as a Large Q1 Circle with the “Fire” Contention and others such as #5 BERNIE LOMAX and #9 LAKE MILLS upgraded with a similar Plot position (trip) and better finishing (Square) ability. 

It is encouraging to see #8 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE wheel right back for this second start. He showed some ability though had some setbacks leading up to the belated debut three weeks ago. While there was intent first out, mentally WHOLE LOTTA LUTE might have lost his race before it started, he WASTED a lot of energy on the track and the was very fractious in the GATE. The race was won impressively by Good Apple, one that wheeled right back to win a contentious allowance race last week. WHOLE LOTTA LUTE presents the ability for improvement in his second start giving him the edge over the other more experienced types that lack the same upside and has the edge on experience over the debuting sophomores. 

Going back to Race 5, MAQAMAT is worth a follow as stablemate #9 FIRST KITTEN follows a similar pattern in this spot. The return on opening day appeared a PREP for FIRST KITTEN despite being heavily supported by the public as she was returning and first off the layoff, a change from last season and had not had a layoff return since the spring of 2022. She can step forward given the TROUBLE_S, RUSH and WIDE trip that followed and given the attention last out and outcome should hold longer odds this afternoon.

It is interesting that A. Centeno, the regular FIRST KITTEN rider will shift to the J. Arnett trainee, #2 GIRL PRO and this combination has had a lot of success this meet. GIRL PRO is capable here though will give up recency and local experience though to her credit has a couple of local works and the connections landing here where she can remain protected, and the connections have been creative with the placement that has kept her protected since last summer.

Meraz will also send out #5 SMOOTH JUSTICE one that is sifter on numbers that can be upgraded on Surface/Distance Plot and hold for a share. The Large Squares, #3 AWESOME SUNDAY and #6 STYLE are given a mention at the longer odds in this event. The trip for #10 RACETOTHEFINISH could be just that as they will be forced to clear from the outside and project to take pressure from #4 MAFELYN BELLE and #7 LILY’S WOOFY runners that could present REGRESS? off their recent efforts. 

This pattern with the maiden races this season continues with the mix of seasoned older horses or some lightly raced younger horses and the battle of where to land; experience or upside.
When it comes to lightly raced, #10 CASCADE CRUISER has been consistent number wise and those figures fit with the older seasoned runners. He will make a third career start and second at the route distance, something that was projected off his debut and moved forward last month with a subtle trip on 3/16 and both races have held form and productive. CASCADE CRUISER is given preference over #3 GIANNO despite giving up local experience with a similar foundation of races. First time starter #8 DAKOTA INVADER could be live and a threat on debut for live connections and steady work tab.

Trainer Manny Perez will send out a pair in this race and both deserving of a look: #9 WOLF HUNTER has the experience edge and on his best day has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and will make his second start off the layoff from a TROUBLE trip on opening day. #11 LAUREATE earned a follow off his debut last year. The trip was GREEN and lost his race at the GATE and was NO_PUSH after, though was heavily backed in the will pays, opened up as the heavy favorite and appeared some intent first out for a barn that does not have the strong first out numbers.