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Sat April 13th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
#4 TIZWOW is upgraded in this race looking at OptixPLOT a
position in line with #1 LIBERTY’S HAULER one that should be shorter of the two.
TIZWOW has some hurdles to overcome on the win end though should hold the morning
line in this race and could be overlooked for the connections with upside given
the benefit of a start this season and upside on the class drop. While they did
come up short at this $12.5k N2 level last year, the race par for those events
was higher than today and there were some competitive sprint efforts and
figures many that carried into the summer series at FAN with returning and
maiden win rider Victor Bailon aboard.
#3 MR. CHIVAS shows up on this circuit for Manley and the
barn had a similar runner last weekend in Cocktail Cutie finishing second. Following
that pattern, MR. CHIVAS has form on his best day and favorable runstyle with
the subtle distance change and second start off the layoff and only the second
time in for the claiming tag. Chris Emigh had been aboard Cocktail Cutie last
week and his presence is noted on #10 PHILIPSBURG in this race. This one finds
a lateral change in class with the circuit since and one that has been
consistent number wise something they will look to transfer today on the dirt
for the first time.
#6 NEON DEION has the edge in local experience over the
other two. Number wise he is on the lighter side, though could present upside given
the races last year as a sophomore. He will return to the main track and for a
claiming tag, something they have tried to avoid though at the same time need
to place him here he can compete, and this could be it.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
The potential for a contentious early pace should benefit #4
NO NANNETTE NO in this spot and off the slight freshening returning to
Hawthorne. She holds form at this level from last year and a win over this main
track under a similar par as today’s event back on 8/24.#5 ZENCHUA SKY also has
a strong late kick could benefit from a stretch out in distance, though number
wise is lighter than others in this field.
Morning line favorite, #6 TIMELESS GLORY has two wins over
this course and at this level from last season. One of those was a “match race”
last June and benefit form a perfect trip on 8/10. The timing could suggest intent
as she makes her second start off the layoff and stretch out in distance,
though projects to be a much shorter number today than the 15-1 last out though
the form from the 3/23 Lily’s Woofy race has held up going forward. Trip wise
she could find early contention or at the least forced to put herself in the race
with #2 EMITYAAZ; one that has some of the stronger figures on her best day
that make her the horse to beat and even the horse to catch on the front end.
The layoff lines coming into this race create some reservations, though E.
Gallardo taking the call is a positive.
Brian Cook could look to play spoiler sending out a pair in
this race: #3 STACK SHACK takes this drop back in for the $5k tag, a level
where she was competitive this season at the FG and appears the right timing
for her stretching out in this second start of the season.
Chris Emigh picked up the win aboard Go Stormin Girl last
week for Brian Cook and noted as this pair return with #1 LOONA LUV from that
common race. Go Stormin Girl was fancied of the pair on the day though in this
spot LOONA LUV could move up presenting some upside for this race and at this
level. Prior to the race two weeks ago her other two starts on this circuit
were contested at the higher $12.5k condition and coming back from the 3/31
race, she showed run after bobbling (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate, SAVED ground
and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. The added ground to a route could be a
positive and intent here.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
This is a tough race where a chase can be made for every
horse in this field. The case for #2 SALLY’S SURPRISE is one of value though
buried form that could land in the right time and place. The barn has #6
VISIONISTA and could bet the intended of the two and holds form at the route
distance, an unknown for SALLY’S SURPRISE. With that change and post and in
this field, she could present early speed and with the main players in the
race, stalk-and-pounce types, there is a scenario where SALLY’S SURPRISE could
look to clear and carry the field. She has numbers on par with the main rivals
in this field including her stablemate and form over this course and allowance
condition going back to the races last year at this level contested at a higher
par than today.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Longshots to upgrade from Plot: #7 BABA’S BOY will look to
turn things around for Bahena and themselves returning to this circuit. Trips
and class have been contentious at Oaklawn and could return to form on this circuit,
class change and back with Ulloa, a rider that has been aboard in the past including
one of their recent wins over this course and distance in November 2022. A
return to their better days does not have them a “longshot” quite the opposite
as a top effort has them as one of the horses to beat. #3 FUTURE VISION one
that does not look to hold an edge “on paper” though could move up in this race
shape.
#8 WHERE’D THE DAY GO scratched from that 3/24 common race
and fits at this level and in this spot with their early speed and perhaps some
intent to follow as well with tactical speed that can present a threat (Quad I)
in this race shape. He could find company with #9 SIERRA HOTEL in this field,
one that has comparable turf form though will be tested with the surface switch
and to move forward off their current form needed to compete.
In terms of the 3/24 race: #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT gets another
look returning from a competitive claiming event on opening weekend. The winner
of that race, Impulsiveness rallied from well off the pace and CHRISTMAS PRESENT
was chasing early with some ground loss and adversity a similar trip though not
the ground saving run for #1 FLASHY RICHIE and could look for similar here and
what should be a much shorter number today. #4 MILLARD’S SMILE finishing 4th
and BTL as he was caught WIDE and put in a strong late CLOSE.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
#7 MAQAMAT is upgraded from the effort and placement on opening
day and remaining on the main track and sprinting where he has shown his better
races to date. Going back to 3/23 event he needed the race and the move off the
rail – the effort showed ore run with the majority of the running after the
wire/GALLOP+. The changes in play here
should have him competitive in this spot timing as many A. Meraz runners needed
their first start and the barn has started to show up with live runners as of late
he should be sitting on a peak effort.
Looking at the Plot, MAQAMAT should find a trip similar to
#2 SCHMOOZIN and #6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and in agreement with the ML, could sit
higher of that group come post time.
In terms of ML favorite, #1 SNOOZER he has recorded some of
the higher figures in this field though will be required to transfer that form
to this circuit and off the layoff as well as in today’s race shape, a downgrade
on the OptixPLOT as a Large Q1 Circle with the “Fire” Contention and others
such as #5 BERNIE LOMAX and #9 LAKE MILLS upgraded with a similar Plot position
(trip) and better finishing (Square) ability.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
It is encouraging to see #8 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE wheel right
back for this second start. He showed some ability though had some setbacks
leading up to the belated debut three weeks ago. While there was intent first
out, mentally WHOLE LOTTA LUTE might have lost his race before it started, he WASTED
a lot of energy on the track and the was very fractious in the GATE. The race
was won impressively by Good Apple, one that wheeled right back to win a
contentious allowance race last week. WHOLE LOTTA LUTE presents the ability for
improvement in his second start giving him the edge over the other more
experienced types that lack the same upside and has the edge on experience over
the debuting sophomores.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Going back to Race 5, MAQAMAT is worth a follow as
stablemate #9 FIRST KITTEN follows a similar pattern in this spot. The return
on opening day appeared a PREP for FIRST KITTEN despite being heavily supported
by the public as she was returning and first off the layoff, a change from last
season and had not had a layoff return since the spring of 2022. She can step
forward given the TROUBLE_S, RUSH and WIDE trip that followed and given the attention
last out and outcome should hold longer odds this afternoon.
It is interesting that A. Centeno, the regular FIRST KITTEN
rider will shift to the J. Arnett trainee, #2 GIRL PRO and this combination has
had a lot of success this meet. GIRL PRO is capable here though will give up recency
and local experience though to her credit has a couple of local works and the
connections landing here where she can remain protected, and the connections
have been creative with the placement that has kept her protected since last
summer.
Meraz will also send out #5 SMOOTH JUSTICE one that is
sifter on numbers that can be upgraded on Surface/Distance Plot and hold for a
share. The Large Squares, #3 AWESOME SUNDAY and #6 STYLE are given a mention at
the longer odds in this event. The trip for #10 RACETOTHEFINISH could be just
that as they will be forced to clear from the outside and project to take
pressure from #4 MAFELYN BELLE and #7 LILY’S WOOFY runners that could present
REGRESS? off their recent efforts.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
This pattern with the maiden races this season continues with
the mix of seasoned older horses or some lightly raced younger horses and the battle
of where to land; experience or upside.
When it comes to lightly raced, #10 CASCADE CRUISER has been consistent number
wise and those figures fit with the older seasoned runners. He will make a third
career start and second at the route distance, something that was projected off
his debut and moved forward last month with a subtle trip on 3/16 and both
races have held form and productive. CASCADE CRUISER is given preference over
#3 GIANNO despite giving up local experience with a similar foundation of races.
First time starter #8 DAKOTA INVADER could be live and a threat on debut for
live connections and steady work tab.
Trainer Manny Perez will send out a pair in this race and
both deserving of a look: #9 WOLF HUNTER has the experience edge and on his
best day has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and will make
his second start off the layoff from a TROUBLE trip on opening day. #11
LAUREATE earned a follow off his debut last year. The trip was GREEN and lost
his race at the GATE and was NO_PUSH after, though was heavily backed in the
will pays, opened up as the heavy favorite and appeared some intent first out
for a barn that does not have the strong first out numbers.