Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 JOLIE RULER was the second choice behind dominant 1-9 Lily’s Woofy back on 3/31 coming back off the layoff and should benefit from the start and move up in this spot second off class change. The race shape should set up her runstyle with positional speed with a strong late kick – Large Q1 Square.

The Plot position (Q2 Circle) is a downgrade today for  #3 SWEET NELLIE one that returns off a win two weeks ago, this is a slight step up in class and given the connections could be a strong second choice or even favored here. She is drawn inside other “speeds” with #4 HELEN MAE’S SONG upgraded moving off the rail and #5 COOKIN ROSES one that should be on lead at the first call according to Q1 Plot position. #6 THINK BLUE fits at this level on her best day, though might require a race as she returns off the layoff as one that has raced herself into shape in the past and this will be her first local start and just one published move since the layoff to create some reservations as the potential second wagering choice.

#2 MISS WINDY SLEW has back races that fit for this level and could be the time and place for her to turn things around. Her for at Oaklawn was against tougher and making the shift back to Hawthorne she took kick back in both starts and some progression with each start could her run on for a share.  

#2 RAVIN’S TOWN recorded the highest figure in this field when he made his debut last Summer as a juvenile and off that race should be competitive here. He will give up recency to #1 MOONLIGHT ROAD, one that turned in a game effort opening weekend second best to Rivelli runner, Gimme The Candy the even money pacesetting winner, though keying off the pair from last year, Ravin’s Town had the edge over Gimme the Candy at the time of their juvenile season.

Rivelli will also be represented by #5 GAVEL one that makes a return to Hawthorne where he debuted late in the 2023 meet. He has yet to take that big step forward with the races that followed and will look to get on track here and could be the timing with the strong half mile move on 3/16, though still must translate that on the track. Going back to that 9/3 debut race, #7 MIDTERM made his debut that had a showed a ton of run making a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW and one that has a steady strong of works coming back this year and should be the higher of the two returning here. MIDTERM has the one start this season back on 2/16 at Turfway the races cancelled due to very cold temperatures after his race that event produced one next out MSW winner and others came back to improve on numbers. 

While #3 CAT ATTACK appears to hold a pace advantage solo in Quad I and the most likely winner, will take a stab with #4 BABY GUNDIN to attempt the upset. She is not one that holds the same tactical speed though can stalk (Quad I/II Square) she comes into this race with form out of higher level N1 allowance races this year at TP both in par and purse and her dirt figures stack up as a contender to suggest intent making that surface switch and showing up on this circuit. 

The return visuals for #3 NIFF on 3/30 suggest she could be showing a form cycle reversal as she comes off the layoff and this season. Going back to her better days she has form and figures on par for this race and stack up with the others in this field. Today’s race shape could suit her runstyle given “Fire” Contention with four of the five others sharing the EP runstyle and a “bunched” scenario from Surface/Distance to set up the stalking run for  NIFF, the lone P runner in this field. 

With many in this field returning from the 3/24 race; a race where #6 R KATIEBUG was compromised given an EX – EXCUSE on the day losing her race at the GATE (very fractious) and stumbled (TROUBLE_S) -- with some consolation as stablemate Rietta wired the field. R KATIEBUG unable to get into the running showed most of her interest after the wire with a solid GALLOP+ out and wheeling back for this spot should return to front running ways and keep #4 WILDWOOD TRIPLE honest up front. #3 MISS RIVER RAT turned in a BTL effort after breaking SLOG put in a strong CLOSE and will look to be more alert today with the blinkers added and the slight addition of ground works in her favor.

Boyce will also return with #5 RUMBRANDT an better spot for her in this second start of the season (PREP) as she was overmatched against open company on 3/30 though finds a tough test here for the top spot though can find a way into the mix for a minor share. 

This is a tricky race as looking at Surface/Distance Plot, #3 RACETOTHEFINISH has a “lone speed” scenario though folding in Standard (current form) there should be a contentious (above ParLine) duel with #6 RIETTA. Those two could have enough separation for a “best of the speed” outcome though could start up for a stalking trip for #1 WHITE LIES (upgraded both Standard and Surface/Distance) to stalk from the inside and look for first run.

The Surface/Distance positional trip for WHITE LIES sits not far off rivals #5 COMMISSIONER GULCH and #7 CANTOO and those two should present value over #4 RAINY MOUNTAIN one that does not have an edge in this race shape and at the ML would give preference to #2 CHROME ATTACK of that pair. 

#8 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS had a strong look going back to opening weekend when entered at this $8.5k condition and less so on 3/31 in a tougher spot; a tougher spot that was only made worse when encountering legit TROUBLE+ and given a full EX – EXCUSE on the day. They fit back at this level as an individual though in today’s race shape they will be tested from the outside draw, required to clear (avoid early ground loss again) and stamina (Circle) could be a concern late with the Fire Contention and honest 40 SpeedRate as #6 FLYING SAMURAI moves into that group. Those factors could further compromise and present vulnerabilities to #1 GITA’S LAD and #4 DANVILLE on the win end and at their projected shorter odds.

Part of that contention includes #2 DOUBLE THUNDER as a Quad I Square upgrading them of that group and a contender returning with a top effort. The time off after the 2/17 win could be required and the right move as they were clear late but tail flashing aggressively to the wire and they were heavily backed on the day from the assigned 8-1 ML. DOUBLE THUNDER has some back class going back to their juvenile season winning the Bashford Manor (G3) and Sapling Stakes as a juvenile.

#5 ROGUE ELEMENT was not as effective in his graded stakes appearances in his sophomore season, though has has found the right level for his current abilities. He should be overlooked in this race coming back from the 3/31 race with the running line and finishing position. While his excuse was not as obvious as KHOZAN’S SUCCESS, the TACTIC- did not give him his best chance on the day and might have just needed the race and noted rider change today that should keep the number in that double digit territory required to make the longshot case.

There is the scenario where the Fire and SpeedRate catches up to that first flight and upgrades runners from off the pace. #3 ROCKET HOTSHOT and #7 CHICKS FOR FREE return after chasing the lone GITA’S LAD though a Very Slow early and late pace and giving that Quad IV Square pair an upgrade (and downgrade to the last out winner) in this race shape.  

In terms of the early pace, #7 ONE WAY HOME returns to make his second start off the layoff and a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) on 3/24 setting an honest pace where the winner, Impulsiveness sitting a dozen lengths off the early pace at the first call. While they present upside and an upgrade here the pace should still be contentious and #9 UNIFIED WEEKEND could secure the right tracking (Q1 Square) trip, a logical runner in this spot.

#10 NOT VERY GENTLE fits at this level and had sun well off a similar layoff in a similar spot going back to last season. He finish second int eh 3/26 return, though had a different dynamic in the four horse field and lone winner that day. Giles was aboard that day and for the win closing out their 2023 season.

#6 MISTER CHARMING should move up in this second start off the layoff, a PREP going much shorter opening week off  183-day layoff. He will return today back at the route distance where he was effective last season despite coming up short on the win end, though going back to December 2022 he secured that win with R. Blanche, the rider aboard today. 

Interesting race starts the day as there's a bit of pace in here. Hoping 3-SWEET NELLIE can rate a bit early and look to run on in the lane as she comes off a solid victory in her last. With Helen Mae's Song and Cookin Roses likely to hustle away, she should be able to rate in the second flight and get the jump at the top of the lane. 6-THINK BLUE makes her first start of the year and she comes in with just the one work into this spot. She may eventually want to go longer but while sprinting she tends to settle and make one late move. 1-JOLIE RULER ran well while facing better in her last. She has been good at Hawthorne throughout her career and runs for the increased Illinois claiming tag.

Not a ton of pace in this race as it appears 2-RAVIN'S TOWN will be able to clear and possibly never look back. He gets Lasix for his first start as a 3yo and has been working well. Let's see if he can shake loose early and never look back. 1-MOONLIGHT ROAD ran well in his first start of the meet. He may benefit from the added distance today as Mojica takes over in the saddle. 7-MIDTERM debuted here last fall, posting a good effort first out. He got away slowly in his most recent race and was never in the mix. He has since worked well toward the return as he figures to close ground late while at a price.

A short field for this quality bunch with a couple of talented Illinois-bred runners in here. Looking to the speed of 3-CAT ATTACK to make the top and wire this bunch. She has been good over this track throughout her career and comes in off a sharp workout. 2-COTTON CANDY ANNIE may be chasing the entire way as she makes her Hawthorne return. She ran a good second at this level here last summer and is working consistently as she prepares for her return. 1-QUILTING PARTY will be running on late as she has always worked forwardly toward her return. She's another that has been very good over this Hawthorne strip and the distance suits her nicely.

Lots of pace in this race which could be beneficial for 1-HALLIE'S RAINBOW.  She makes her second start of the meet as she had a bit of a troubled trip last out. With the added distance and inside draw, I expect her to tuck in right behind the early leaders and look to take over in the lane. 6-YOU'RE A DANDY is one with speed who ran a game race in her last. This barn has gotten off to a sneaky good start as we will see if she challenges for the early lead once again. 2-OPALINE makes a quick return as she comes off a game win in her last. She runs for a strong barn and is another that could be close early. 

The added 16th could be all 3-MISS RIVER RAT needs off of her first start of the meet. In that spot she was left to chase a good one in Rietta as she closed well from the outside draw. She comes into here off a nice workout and should get enough pace to chase. Another likely to improve is 7-REBA ATTACK as she ran a strong race in her last at huge odds. She was coming into that race off a lengthy layoff but had been working well. Don't be surprised if she's able to repeat that performance today. 6-R KATIEBUG has some speed as you can put a line through her last as she stumbled at the break. If she gets away clean in here she has a chance to make the top and try to steal this race.

I really like this spot for 8-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS as he makes his second start of the meet. He had some traffic trouble early in his first start of the meet on a day where speed was good. He was still able to run on in the lane against a quality bunch. With the class drop today and the outside draw, I expect he finds a good spot early and runs on in the lane. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER runs for the tough Arnett barn as he is one that could show some speed in here. He steps up off a good victory in his last and has a couple of works over this strip. Let's see if he can stalk the speed of Gita's Lad and get the jump on the closers late. 4-DANVILLE has been very good at Hawthorne, hitting the board in 10 of 13 starts over the track. He drops in class off a couple of tougher starts to open 2024 but is another that likes the distance and figures to get a good tracking trip.

Surely he needed his last start as I expect a much improved effort out of 7-ONE WAY HOME today. The 9yo made his first start of the year around two turns in his last off just one drill. He chased well into the lane before tiring late. With the second start out, expect him to show speed and carry it to the wire on the drop in class. 9-UNIFIED WEEKEND comes in off the claim as he chased the lone speed in his last. He could be in a similar stalking spot today as a repeat of that last performance will put him in the mix once again. 3-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE comes out of the same race as Unified Weekend last out as he chased in that spot. It wasn't a bad effort effort while at a big price as he figures to contend once again in here.

Not a strong selection but have to give the advantage to 5-COOKIN ROSES. She is far from the only speed in the field but think she could be the quickest. Barely lost her first start of the year. Might be able to make amends on the lead in this event. 3-SWEET NELLIE had been in poor form at Oaklawn but woke up in a big way in her first local start of the year. She pressed the pace early and then drew off late. Could get the same kind of trip today. 1-JOLIE RULER drops a notch after a solid third-place finish in her first start of the year. She has some speed but think she’s better when racing right off the pace and the pace should set up well for her.

It’s going to be hard to separate the three most likely to win this race but someone will finish first. Going to give the nod to 2-RAVIN’S TOWN. He had only one race, and that was at four and a half back in July but love the speed he showed in that race along with the tenacity. He fought throughout but came up a nose short. This race is longer but he has been training well and he gets first Lasix. 1-MOONLIGHT ROAD finished second in his first race of the meet and came back with a super-strong four-panel drill. He could be ready for these. 5-GAVEL, stablemate of top choice, didn’t handle the Fair Grounds turf in last but he was far more competitive in his first two races, including a narrow loss here when he debuted last year. Likely awakens with the return to dirt.

3-CAT ATTACK certainly looks like the one to beat. This swift mare will be going right to the lead and the pps of her rivals say she’s going to get there unchallenged. However, she’s been far better on turf and she managed to win only one of her six Hawthorne dirt races. They’ll have to catch her but they might be able to do it. 5-FIRESIDE KITTEN will be stalking the pace, waiting for top pick to run out of gas. Like that rival, she’s been better on turf, and even synthetic surfaces, but she has finished second in a couple dirt events. 2-COTTON CANDY ANNIE has been far better on dirt than the top pair. She finished second to the tough Journeyist in her lone previous local dirt start. She does have the capability to run well on or off the lead.

There doesn’t seem to be a lot to separate these runners. Going to try with 1-HALLIE’S RAINBOW. She finished third in her first start of the meet. Has speed, the rail, and she’s reunited with Santiago as the pilot and Victor was aboard for this mare’s previous two wins. 2-OPALINE wired the field in her first start of the meet. She’ll be racing under a tougher condition (NW3) but this field really doesn’t look any tougher than the one she just beat. 6-YOU’RE A DANDY has speed, the rail, and she finished ahead of top choice in last.

This is another wide-open race. I can make a case for most in here but ended up with 6-R KATIEBUG. Her two races this year have been awful but her first was on a synthetic track and she stumbled in last. She’s probably at her best on turf but her early dirt races last year suggest that she should be effective on either surface. 3-MISS RIVER RAT races with blinkers for the first time. 4-WILDWOOD TRIPLE runs for the first time in over a year but she has been training well. Her barn is expert at bringing runners back from layoffs. She could turn out to be the best of the speed. She finished well in her first start of the year but ran out of real estate. The extra sixteenth of this race will work in her favor. 

6-RIETTA has had three races on three different surfaces and ran well in all of them. She wired the fields twice and came from slightly off the pace to finish second in her lone loss. She’s meeting far more seasoned and successful runners today but don’t think we have seen the best of her yet. 3-RACETOTHEFINISH has eight wins to her credit and earnings in excess of $187k. She’s racing for the first time since November but she has a history of running well off layoffs. She’s training forwardly for a barn that knows how to win with fresh horses. 1-WHITE LIES likes to do her bet running late. She hasn’t raced since August but four useful recent drills should have her ready to roll. 

1-GITA’S LAD seeks his second straight victory and there’s a good chance that he’ll do it. He led every step of the way in his first start of the meet, giving him 11 wins from 29 local starts. He’s facing more rivals in this spot but none seem likely to challenge him early and that could result in another easy early lead. Delta invader 2-DOUBLE THUNDER moves up in class to make his local debut but his red-hot trainer has been spotting his horses perfectly. This multiple stakes winner in 2021 has earned over $400k in his career. He’s obviously not the same horse that ran in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Futurity but he did win two of his last three in Louisiana. 4-DANVILLE drops to his lowest level in a year and a half. His last couple races in Florida weren’t that sharp but he has an outstanding local record and he can awaken with the return home and drop in class.

9-UNIFIED WEEKEND can make amends. He chased a fairly pedestrian pace in his first start of the meet but was unable to make up any ground late. He got claimed from that race but figures to fare just as well for his new barn that wins with 22% of their first-time claims. 10-NOT VERY GENTLE ended his 2023 racing season with a victory. He ran well here all last meet and scored three times. He had only a couple slow drills coming into his first race since August but think they’ll have him ready. Flies late. 7-ONE WAY HOME obviously needed last. He pressed the early pace before fading badly down the lane. But that race should have set him up well for this one. He’s a threat to wire the field.

Late Pick 4 Ticket:  3,4,6 / 6 /  1,2,4,7,8 / 9  ($15 for $1)

Race 5:  6 - 4 - 3

Trainer Michele Boyce has a nice one on her hands with #6 R Katiebug (3-1) in this state-bred affair. She had little to no chance last time in her 4yo debut after stumbling out of the gate. You could argue she’s a better turf horse than dirt, but her numbers on the dirt are simply better than her counterparts in this field, plus she probably needed her last. A clean break / trip should send her directly to the winner’s circle at a short price. 

Race 6:  6 - 1 - 2

If the name of #6 Rietta (9-2) looks / sounds familiar, it’s because she’s a stablemate of Michele Boyce’s R Katiebug and beat her last time. One could argue her figs are too low to be my top selection, as this field is competitive on paper. But two back, Rietta received a 68 Beyer in a tough open-company race at Turfway, where the racing this past winter/spring was very good. She faces older, more experienced runners and will have to earn her victory, but she has a decidedly early pace advantage on paper and should be tough if clearing to the lead early. I’m expecting another big effort today.

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 8

Nice field going two turns in Race 7, and while I’m a bit worried the early speed won’t come back to the field with the two “bookend” runners (rail and outside horses), #4 Danville (5-2) should be tactical early with talented jock Loveberry in the irons. Consistent but not spectacular, the 7yo has finished in the money 30 out of 53 times he’s raced, so he’ll give you an honest effort…stalk and pounce.

Race 8:  9 - 7 - 6

The finale is designated for horses who have not won in a year, $5k claimers….and there’s a horse who TOWERS over the field based on class. If #9 Unified Weekend (5-2), trained by Reavis, loses today, something went drastically wrong in my opinion. Look whom he’s faced…and last time was his first-ever dirt effort after racing on synthetics, and ran well as the heavy favorite. He should get the job done today and will be singled on many Pick 4 tickets. If you can beat him, you’re going to get a price for sure.

P 3 Filthy McNasty 8 Cheeky Cherry 6 Fifthshadesofbliss

P 2 Born To Dance 1 Vicious Blue Chip 7 Out Cold

T 5 Doc’s Spirit 7 Betmetowin 2 Barn Hall

P 7 Brooklyn Blues 2 Hungry For Kisses 5 Feelin Fancy

P 2 Summer Lovesginger 6 French Shaker 1 Navagio

P 3 Deciding Factor 4 Victoriousbluechip 7 Rock The Hill

P 1 Quality Closer 8 Bit Of Luck 6 Clever Character

P 2 Hornall 4 Catch Me Conrad 6 So So De Vie

P 5 Last Bet 8 Roan Color 4 Hes Got A Vandetta

P 1 The Real Way 2 Lyons Friends 8 Rose Run Xiled

P 7 Birthday 6 American Fling 8 Bernie

P 1 Dragon City 3 Twin B Nation 2 Pound Sign

P 3 Coop A Loop 4 Double Up 1 Colin Your Bluff

P 9 Tremendous Play 2 The Cruz 8 Admiral Adam

P 4 Record Machine 5 Base Steeler 6 Elver Hanover

P 5 Oberlin 1 Noblight 7 Print Media