Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 BRICKLAYER brings the most upside into this race with changes on a lightly raced runner. He will make both the racing debut on the main track and route distance and could move up on that change. While the efforts at TP left something to be desired, he had some subtle trips and extreme race shapes in those sprints. #6 LIAM'S JOURNEY has the class edge based on his races to date and will look for that to transfer to the dirt. He does hold one dirt start, the effort back in January earned a figure in line with the trip numbers and appears versatile on the surface switch. 

As far as #1 ULTIMA GRACE she projects to be a heavy favorite in this race and the barn sending out live runners this one would be no surprise. There are some concerns with the rail today for this filly based on her physicality and mannerisms. 

#1 SABRINA caught a competitive compact field on debut in December and can IMPROVE, she was entered in a $50k MCL last month at TP and scratched will race here to remain protected. 

#1 SMILE MON is a weaker favorite if the ML holds on race day as they lack any edge in this field at the shorter odds. Given the rail, they should be involved early with #2 PRESIDER, #3 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY and #4 JOINT VENTURE in the early pace. 

#7 OUR DREAM RYE'D has just the one dirt start though recorded a figure on par with the turf and synth numbers to suggest they can translate here. He has upside from the 2/28 event given the race shape and still turned in a competitive (B-) effort despite the 5th place result. 

#3 BEYOND LUCKY has been pointed to this meet the turf and route distance entered and unable to draw in off the AE last Saturday. She was named with Saez aboard (shifts to #7 FIGGY) though grabbing a live rider in I. Ortiz. 

#6 BLUE HAIRDO has run and looks well-prepared and intended in this spot. B. Colebrook has sent out live runners including a pair of open length mtb winners. 

J. Ortiz is named aboard both C DeVaux runners with #9 DEEP SATIN in the main body of the field with #14 PISCIOTTA sitting on the AE and making a belated debut as she was entered and scratched from a MSW event similar conditions last summer at SAR. 

#1 UNLIMITED POTENTIAL has definite potential to go off favored once again. Number wise he has been consistent and those figures standing out in here. He two races back in 2022 stand out strongly and one of those the October race over this course and distance. 

#5 TAPIT'S TALE presents the most upside and intention for this second start. He took some money on debut from the 10-1 ML, though no match for the other FTS Polster (one that worked with Blue Hairdo in R5) on 3/16 at TP. TAPIT'S TALE has trained consistently since the initial start and plenty of foundation here at his Keeneland base. 

#3 L J'S EMMA is a solid turf sprinter for this shorter distance. She closed out the 2023 season over this course and allowance condition with a compromised TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip showing run and likely cost a better position if not the win on the day. She appears well-intended in this spot returning from the layoff with L. Saez back aboard.

*Some others can be added, though this analysis is pre-scratch and I do not know who else is running in this race. 

There are a lot of question marks on #1 FITZPATRICK though sunning back to the race at this claiming level (B TRAFFIC) has them a contender here and turned in a solid effort with KICKBACK over this course in the April OC N2X. The price compensation should be there with the barn change for the same owner group. 

#8 ZIPPIN GIGI has spent most of his recent career overmatched in allowance company though picking out the two wins both were at the open $50k claiming conditions one over this course and 7f distance in April 2022 the other (9/22) at 7f at CD.

#7 VULCAN could also be sitting on a rebound and reset from Oaklawn where his season and timing was thrown off with the early weather cancellations and then had to rush back into races that were not ideal. 

Tough to see the ML odds hold on #2 SHORE WAR with the barn sending out live runners and holding experience over this course and distance from last fall. That 10/19 effort can be upgraded as she made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and a MOVE through TRAFFIC from off the pace over a course that was tough to make up ground on.