Handicapper Tips & Picks

As an individual, #3 SOLOMON VANDY has an advantage in this field and the horse to beat, though in the race shape he loses that edge. He could still overcome though as the projected favorite, that could present a value opportunity on others.

#2 MONEY AGENT returns from the same 4/6 common race as SOLOMON VANDY and recorded the same B- OptixGRADE, overall effort on the day. The two both showed run with different type of “trips” for the minors and looking at OptixPLOT there is not much between the two as they return today.

Keeping on the OptixPLOT theme, #1 MY TENNIS SHOES is upgraded in today’s race shape both on Standard and Surface/Distance. His Past 3 Runlines show a BTL and B OptixGRADE from the two recent (Standard) starts at the FG and in the 3/23 event had a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) making a WIDE MOVE and visually could hand the STRETCH out in distance, the change in today’s race.

#6 EIGHT MAY also returns with a positive PREP? Projection from opening week, the 3/24 race where they broke SLOG and continued to GALLOP+ and returning to the Plot, could present a pace advantage scenario with the Quad I Square position – the edge over #7 SHARPENYOURFAITH. 

#1 ALDORA fits as the favorite recording some of the higher figures in this field by a commanding margin. She meets a smaller field than what she has faced in the past and moves from one post extreme to another following the 3/31 local start when stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a RUSH for position stalked by the winner, Fast N Happy trained by the on fire T. Young.

#7 TILL caught a solid group in her debut closing weekend at TP and showed early speed, legit early speed part of a Fast early pace before losing ground. She will return here with the blinkers on and an upgrade for this second start is not out of the question. Bendezu sticks with TILL departing #6 CITY SHACK as they were aboard for that 3/31 start. #5 SPICY DELIGHT also showed credible early speed on debut and stayed on well while WIDE, though gives up recency and a significant class rise returning today against open company.

The class drop looks key for #3 COLLIER though another that must improve and going back to her MCL efforts prior to the claim raced under a similar par to today and was not effective in those events. There could be some upside from those efforts recorded as a juvenile and does pick up an “out of town” live rider in R. Gutierrez for this event, that could present some intent.  

#4 FLATHEAD FINALE recorded a solid figure on debut (the lone Surface/Distance start as shown on the Plot) though has struggled to get back to that effort or take a step forward. The cutback in distance could assist though still leaves some questions that require price compensation. #2 HATTIE BLOOM will also exit the FG meet and also making the transition to MSW from the recent MCL events on that circuit. While the move could be taken as a lateral if not a slight drop showing up here they still must collectively improve. There are some subtle upgrades for HATTLE BLOOM from her recent starts as she projected to IMPROVE off the debut, stepped forward in the second start three weeks later and was compromised X_BIAS back on 3/24. 

This is a bada** race; there are six legit racehorses in this field that know how to win and all capable in this spot to do just that. Starting with ML favorite #4 WENT WEST he will take the class drop and looks placed properly here and the connections taking the gamble to run in this spot as they must race for the $50k tag, the first time he’s been in for a tag in his career. He does hold a race over this course from last may and finished off-the-board and was also cold on the board for the connections that day and could be something to monitor both of the board, early action in the double pool and the will pays.

In terms of race shape, #1 LOOKIN FOR BALA is as quick as #2 FAITHFUL RULER and the two drawn side-by-side along the inside project and should be engaged right from the start and in a spirited duel. #6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG can keep pace with that pair (Quad I Square) and look for first run on those two as well as looking to get the jump on WENT WEST.

#3 CORTESE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance back from the layoff on 3/30 and a gave effort under similar conditions with a subtle trip strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ past the wire. He does not hold much of an edge to justify the morning line and coming back much shorter especially compared to the overlay three weeks ago. #5 TRY TRY AGAIN is the “longshot” in this field as he returns from the layoff and showing up at this higher level the connections can race slightly “protected” in for the higher $50k tag. While he is least likely and has finished behind SHACKLEFORD STRONG last year there was June 4^th when the tables turned. 

There are no knocks on #7 CLYDE’S GREEN GO in this race though coming back from the 4/6 event shifting to team #3 WILDWOOD RUBEN in this spot. WILDROOM RUBEN was giving up recency making his first start back off extended 301-day layoff and gave up any advantage after missing the break (VSLOG) and made a huge early BURST into a fast (X_FLOW) early pace while X_WIDE and still to his credit stayed on late for show.

WILDWOOD RUBEN was given an EX – EXCUSE that day and his ability to show early speed (a serious wire-to-wire threat) and class from the races last year he is upgraded here. In addition, he could be given a slight maturity edge being a 4yo the over the sophomores including #2 JOE THE TAILOR.

JOE THE TAILOR is capable though could end up the strong second choice (if not co-favored) and that would be a shift from last year in the Futurity when he was second choice behind rival #1 RHODIUMS PRIDE one that has the benefit (PREP) of a start over this course and can step forward off that race and into the 2024 season. 

#2 GUN RUSH should be the “speed of the speed” in this race position as a Large Quad I Square over his rivals that share a similar Plot position in this race. #1 WICKED SUPRISE and #8 HOT DAME (stepping up from F&M) look to get “cooked” in this race shape and #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE has a scenario to try and sit right off that trio and look for first run as outcome to win, though in the right spot to key around in exotics. GLOBAL EMPIRE is preferred in that role over #3 COUSVINNYSACANUCK and #5 AVIANO, tracking above the ParLine a slight shift from their preferred PC Runstyle.

The ”Fire” Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate could be the key for #6 BEEALEA (Quad IV Square) one that comes into this race with solid form and BTL effort from the 3/31 common race. 

This race as it could be as straight forward with #8 TIME HEIST logical and fits right back under similar conditions, form, and trip to pair up wins with Surface/Distance Plot race shape scenario.

That scenario could downgrade #9 ROBUST whereas Standard (current form) presents a scenario where he could “wire” the field, though is stepping up in class and wheeling back from a HARD effort three weeks ago. #7 RISKY BOY has held his form this season and tough to knock especially if once again dismissed on the board and similar for #3 READTHETRANSCRIPT one that would be no surprise to hold his form and turn in another honest effort. #2 GREENSFELDER and #6 REMEMBER THE MAINE could look for that “bunched” scenario to pick up horses. 

#9 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR had a longshot look under these conditions last out and while he must improve off the C+ to compete back under similar conditions, he showed run making a MOVE through TRAFFIC and has back numbers on his best day that fit here and might be the timing for him in this spot and should present value once again. Given the finishing position, MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR should go off longer than #7 VALIANT WEST from the common race and one that gave an honest effort (B- CLOSE, GALLOP+) and has continued to progress with each race with the added furlong in their favor.

#1 RICHIESONAROLL has a similar Plot position and pace scenario to Gun Rush in Race 2, with a Large Quad I Square and the edge of the E/EP type runners in this field. He started to find his best form and strong figures for Jose Rodriguez and should be fit in this second start off the layoff and quick return from the Commonwealth (G3) two weeks ago. #5 BEEEASY is part of the “Fire” Contention though with a lower 13 SpeedRate could stick around or even present the edge should RICHIESONAROLL falter as the other Quad I Square and sitting above the ParLine.

#2 TWIRLING ROSES  will be stalking looking for that “Fire” to develop in front of them to pounce and should be assisted with that trip with front running stablemate, #3 PHILIPSBURG in here. There is that scenario to get the win (and a share at the least) in today’s race shape and in terms of form cycle wheeling back from a competitive effort (B- OptixGRADE, WIDE MOVE) three weeks ago and returning with Emigh a rider that was aboard for the place finish last month and two of his starter allowance wins in fall 2022.

Value is a slight concern for #6 SILENT SUNDAY with the change in class, a slight step up if not closer to a lateral change in class coming off the win three weeks ago at longer odds than projected today. 

A competitive race to close out the card. The class change along appears to move up #1 LARRY THE POET in this field. The timing could suggest further intent as they make their second start off the layoff and had a subtle trip on 3/31 taking up soon after the break (TROUBLE_S) as a rival came over and showed run to follow making a WIDE MOVE, something that might not show up as clear off the running line and finishing position. He has ability to show early speed as shown prominently on the Surface/Distance Plot and make things tougher on #5 GIMME THE CANDY.

#2 JET FLIGHT moved up last year off his debut around two turns cutting back to a sprint and follows a similar pattern in this second start of the season. He will also reunite with A. Lezcano, the rider aboard for their maiden win on 9/28, following the conclusion of the 2023 Hawthorne meet.

Two turn maidens kick off the day in a race that looks to have some pace. Gave the nod to 2-MONEY AGENT off a good effort in his last. He stalked the pace in that spot and ran on nicely in the lane. A similar trip should put him right there at the wire with these. 3-SOLOMON VANDY runs for the hot Rodriguez barn as he made a wide move in the same race as Money Agent last out. He makes his second start of the meet today and is another that will benefit from the pace ahead of him. 7-SHARPENYOURFAITH is one of those who could show some speed. He was the favorite when facing these in his last but had to steady in that spot before giving way late. Let's see if he hustles to try to clear in here.

Off a good effort in her last, have to think 1-ALDORA will be very tough in here as trainer Wayne Catalano approaches 3,000 training wins on his career. Despite the outside draw, she found good position early in her last and battled to the wire. With the move to the rail, there's the potential for her to clear and never look back. 2-HATTIE BLOOM comes in from New Orleans for this race as she ran very similar races in all three starts. She comes in off a good work over the track and may be able to rate a bit closer to the pace today. 4-FLATHEAD FINALE shortens up as she transitions to Hawthorne today. She has a pair of snappy drills over the track but may need to get away a bit more quickly from the gate.

A really solid field of sprinters here as the pace upfront should be swift, and likely contested. Gave the nod to 4-WENT WEST as he is well spotted and had a style to suit this field. He comes out of a stakes try in his last and should benefit from a fast track return. 3-CORTESE ran a good second while facing similar last out. He settled nicely in that spot before closing well in the lane. If that race were at today's distance he would have been the likely winner. 6-SHACKLEFORD STRONG comes out of the same race as Cortese as he also posted a solid effort. He loves this racetrack and is another that will benefit from the added distance.

Will take a little shot here with 1-RHODIUMS PRIDE as he adds Lasix today and should get a good pace setup in front of him. He ran evenly at this level last out but with four possible horses to contest the lead he could get the perfect trip. 7-CLYDE'S GREEN GO is one I gave a look to the last time he ran and he held his own, chasing a good winner in Good Apple in that spot. He's another that should benefit from the added distance and just needs to avoid getting into the speed duel. 2-JOE THE TAILOR is one that could be a factor as he comes in from Kentucky for this race. He improved with the addition of Lasix last out and ran better from just off the pace in that spot.

Although 2-GUN RUSH is the most likely winner, it's worth looking for a bit of value in here as 3-COUSVINNYSACANUCK comes back at this level. He ran a solid race from an outside draw in his last and should be able to tuck in right behind the leaders in here. If Hot Dame goes with Gun Rush, it may give Cousvinnysacanuck the opportunity to pull off the upset. 2-GUN RUSH really hasn't done anything wrong in his starts at Hawthorne as he has speed to burn and could clear in here. If loose, he may never look back but he's going to be a very short price. 4-GLOBAL EMPIRE figures to stalk the pace once again as he chased in his last and ran on late. He's another that has been good at Hawthorne and could be in an upset spot as well.

This is a fun race for this level as some talented lower level claimers meet up. The late move made by 8-TIME HEIST last out was very solid and somewhat unexpected as he was flying in the final 16th of that start. With the added distance and solid amount of pace ahead of him, it could be the perfect setup today. 7-RISKY BOY has run a pair of good races on the meet and should get a good stalking trip once again. He likes this track and I expect will be a square price. 9-ROBUST was claimed from his last as he won impressively on the front end in that spot. He's at his best when showing speed and may be able to outkick Bourbon Teddy to the lead.

This is a compact, yet very competitive field for the return of the Illinois Derby. A case can be made for most, especially as the two longest prices in the M/L, Raguel and Ravin's Town both possess the ability to show speed and could steal the race. Going to give the nod though to 5-LE GRIS from the barn of Al Stall as he has enough tactical speed to contend the entire way. He was an impressive winner in the slop in New Orleans two back and ran a much better race than the ninth place effort shows in the Rushaway at Turfway last out. He gets Loveberry back aboard who is not only familiar with the horse but with this racetrack as well. There's the potential that he sneaks away at a bit of a price too. 2-WOODCOURT also gets the benefit of an experienced Hawthorne rider as Manny Esquivel returns to ride in here. He held his own in a very tough Rebel at Oaklawn and didn't run poorly in the Jeff Ruby Steaks in his last. A claim for $50,000 last December, I wouldn't be surprised if he were to win here and have a big stakes season ahead of him. 2-PATRIOT SPIRIT is the most stakes-tested runner in this race. After a good win in the Inaugural at Tampa he was a bit disappointing in the Sam F Davis. He came back to run big in the Hutchenson in his last and has the benefit of a solid workout over the track.

An evenly matched bunch closes the day as any in here could honestly win. Went to 3-ALIBI IKE off a solid victory in the slop in his last. He runs for a barn that had a big year last year and is starting to heat up this meet. It appears that there's enough pace to chase in this race as he should be in a great stalking spot. 5-GIMME THE CANDY was a good maiden winner in his last. He cleared quickly in that spot and was never challenged. The second place finisher of that race, Moonlight Road, came back to win his next out as this one looks to try to steal the race once again. 4-T LAW makes his first start of the year off a solid workout pattern coming into here. He will need that pace to chase but has the potential to come flying late. The main question is if he needs a race before stretching out.

2-MONEY AGENT could get the trip. He has been overmatched for most of his career but he did come on late to finish second in last when dropped to this level. This is his third race after the layoff and the pace should set up for his late run. 7-SHARPENYOURFAITH tired late in all of his races but he does run for the top barn and every one of their charges is eligible to win on any given day. 3-SOLOMON VANDY finished a couple lengths behind top pick in last but he was also racing at this level for the first time while making his debut for this barn. He could turn out to be the longest lasting of the speed.

1-ALDORA went off as the lukewarm favorite in her local debut but she was coming off a brief layoff and starting from the 11 hole. She finally made the lead late but getting there from the outside post expended too much energy. Drew the rail today. Makes her second start after the layoff. Faces a field without much other apparent speed, though Till could be first from the gate.  4-FLATHEAD FINALE adds blinkers and turns back in distance. She really hasn’t shown anything yet but she’s the only one in here with speed figures even approaching those of top choice. 7-TILL is another adding blinkers. She tired badly in her lone start but she was close through quick fractions in her only start. 

Multiple stakes placed 4-WENT WEST could be the best of these. He’s a versatile sort, with the ability to display speed or to come from off the pace but have to think with the abundance of speedsters in this race, his rider will be patient early and make a run at them in the lane. He finished third in the Work All Week stakes here last year in his last local appearance. 3-CORTESE is another with the versatility to handle any pace. He came from far back to finish second in last, his first start of the year. Might be able to finish even stronger this time around. 6-SHACKLEFORD STRONG was claimed for $5,000 almost exactly a year ago but has gone on to have a tremendous career, winning five of his next six starts. He finished an even third here a couple weeks ago. Would like him better if there wasn’t so much other speed in the race. 

7-CLYDE’S GREEN GO finished fourth in his career debut but hasn’t finished out of the money in six races since, with one third, one win and four close seconds. He ran well on dirt and turf, in open company and against state breds and he’s been adept both on and off the pace. Of course, he is a seven-year-old with only seven career races so that just might be a cause for concern. 2-JOE THE TAILOR wired the field in his career debut, showed little in the Futurity in his next start, and then came from off the pace to beat open company going away in his last start at Turfway. Certainly figures. 3-WILDWOOD RUBEN finished about 8 lengths behind top choice in last but he was running for the first time since June and he was caught in a speed duel with fast fractions. Think he’ll be the best of the speed today and should be far fitter with last tough race behind him. 1-RHODIUM’S PRIDE is hard to figure. He was a daylight winner in his first two starts but showed little in his last two. Maybe first time Lasix will get him headed back in the right direction.

2-GUN RUSH has been sensational at Hawthorne. He had six local races and won five of them while finishing second in the other. He took some time off after last summer’s meet but returned to racing at Turfway and was just as good, with a win and a close second in his first two races there. But then he tossed in a clunker in last, when he started for a different barn for one race. But, he’s back with Watkins today and will be reunited with the rider who guided him to five straight victories last year. Expecting him to wake back up. 8-HOT DAME was ignored in last and she wired the field. She ran under essentially the same conditions. However, that race was against the ladies and she’s meeting the boys in this one. On the other hand, her speed figures suggest she’s just as fast as many in here. Would like her better is there wasn’t so much other speed in the race but there is a chance that she’ll last long enough to share. 3-COUSVINNYSACANUCK should get an ideal pace ahead of him. He finished a distant third in his first start of the meet but he drew a much better post for this race and the pace could set up even better.

8-TIME HEIST was able to take advantage of a fast pace in last and fly by late to win going away. If anything, the pace of this race could be even better for him. The field is overflowing with front runners. If his rider stays patient again, he should get an ideal trip. With a win and a second to top choice in two races this year, 7-RISKY BOY certainly deserves consideration. He’s another with a pretty good closing move. He finished second to top choice in last. It can happen again. 9-ROBUST could be the best of the speed. He wired both local fields he faced and won three of his last four, finishing second in the other. He changes barns often, he was claimed again from last, but seems to do well with all connections. Very dangerous at this distance.

They were a little ambitious entering 1-RICHIESONAROLL in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland in last, especially since he had to race without Lasix, but he could be tough to beat in his first local start of the year. He was claimed for $12,500 here last year but improved dramatically for his new barn. He went on to record two seconds and a pair of wins against much better company prior to last. He’s dropping into an allowance today and facing many rivals that were once, as he was, lower level claimers but many that also improved dramatically. He seems like the most logical winner but think there’s a good chance he could be overbet in what appears to be a deceptively competitive field. 3-PHILIPSBURG was pretty darn impressive in his local debut. He was also making his first start for this barn. This $300,000 auction purchase was claimed twice for $7,500, both from a maiden start and then from his first start against winners. That last race was his first on dirt. Somewhat surprisingly, his rider from that last win will be riding another from this barn in the same race. But that just means that they’ll be able to utilize a talented apprentice with his five-pound weight allowance. Has to be caught. Few of 6-SILENT SUNDAY’s races have been on dirt but he did win two of three on this surface. All but his last race were in California. He came from far back to score in his last at Turfway. Think he’ll be coming late.

Very tough race despite the short field. Can make a case for most in here. But also against. It should be noted that the runners in here can’t use Lasix. Most have had at least some degree of success without it and the cool temperatures on Sunday will help. Not sure what accounted for the terrible effort by 1-REAL MEN VIOLIN in last (besides the company) but he had a couple good works since so hopefully his connections have him figured out. 4-WOODCOURT effort in the Grade 2 Rebel wasn’t bad, considering the company he faced. 5-LE GRIS would probably be my selection but his races without Lasix left a lot to be desired. However, he is one of the two in here with a win at 10 furlongs, though his came on the lawn. 3-RAGUEL had two good races at the distance, his maiden win and a third in last. He’s adding blinkers for this. 2-PATRIOT SPIRIT is hard to gauge. He’s bred to run all day but his lone race around two turns was terrible. But, if that race was a fluke, he could turn out to be the best of the speed. 6-RAVIN’S TOWN is still seeking his maiden win. He will most likely be on the early lead. He has yet to race beyond five and a half. However, his barn has a history of surprising in big races and if his sharp pilot can lull the rest to sleep by putting up slow fractions, who knows what will happen.

5-GIMME THE CANDY can make it two in a row. Lightly-raced runner wired the field in his first start of the meet. Meets others with speed but can put them away and finish with something left. 2-JET FLIGHT needed last and might still be short. He had only one short and slow drill going into that race and it showed. But, he’s turning back in distance and should be fitter with a race under his belt. Can come rolling late. 3-ALIBI IKE scored in his local debut. This runner faced better for most of his career. He seems to have the perfect running style to score in a race like this.

Race 6:  8 - 7 - 9

Pick 4 Ticket: 7,8,9 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,3 / 1,3,4,5  ($48)

The last time #8 Time Heist (5-2) hit the track, he was super-impressive in victory. The running line doesn’t even tell the whole story. Giles rode with the utmost confidence, didn’t even ask the horse until the far turn, and blew by the competition with ease despite being on the wrong lead most of the stretch. A repeat of that effort will make him tough here.

Race 7:  6 - 1 - 2 

I believe this race has a chance to fall apart. If it does, there are two logical choices, the #2 and #6. I’ll go with the horse that I believe will be the higher price of the two, #6 Silent Sunday (9-2). He has races on the dirt back in California that would be competitive here, and his synthetic starts have been on par with most of this field. The heavy favorite, Richiesonaroll, will take a ton of money. But he’s hard to trust if he doesn’t have the lead, and there’s no guarantee that will happen with the presence of the #3. This is a very important race for the Illinois Derby Contest…if the #1 loses, the leaderboard will change dramatically in my opinion.

Race 8 (Illinois Derby):  1 - 3 - 4

Welcome back, Illinois Derby!! The $200k 9-furlong race for 3yo’s brings together a small but competitive field. The winner will get an automatic bid to the Preakness Stakes, the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. There is enough early speed in this race to set up for a mid-pack / closing-type runner, and therefore I’ll go with the #1 Real Men Violin (3-1) for jockey Reylu Guiterrez and trainer Ken McPeek. At his best, I feel he is the most talented horse, although he has not shown that speed in his last two races. It should be mentioned that the jock just wrapped up on him in mid-stretch in the Louisiana Derby, so the losing margin was exaggerated. That being said, it wasn’t a good effort. However, since that race, he’s recorded two solid works and Reylu was on him in that last work. If he runs back to any of his races at the end of 2023, I believe he’ll beat this field. #3 Raguel for Brendan Walsh should improve with some time off and blinkers on, and #4 Woodcourt has run two competitive races back-to-back. This is a fun rendition of the Illinois Derby.

Race 9:  5 - 1 - 4

#5 Gimme the Candy (3-1) will try and wire the field again today to close out the card. He’s very quick and will be gunning for the lead for sure. There is other speed in here, so Gimme will have to be at his best. In addition, he has to stretch out to 6f, so he’s no sure thing. However, many horses in here do not like to pass others, so maybe the speed of the speed will prevail.

ILLINOIS DERBY:

#1 REAL MEN VIOLIN after the two recent starts, might not be favored and in my opinion, can rebound to his peak efforts and in that case is the horse to beat. He showed class in his juvenile season and after what appeared to be a starting off point in 2024 was not a successful pair of starts at the Fair Grounds. While those efforts, leave something to be desired, he looks to have come out of the LA Derby (G2) well working twice since and back in less than 30-days looking for this “win and you’re in” to the Preakness (G1) as the plan for the connections. R. Gutierrez coming in town to ride could suggest further intent and could be a positive change all around and show more tactical speed given the complexion of this field. He should take up a favorable stalking trip as shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Square, giving him the edge over #4 WOODCOURT by comparison and from #3 RAGUEL and #5 LE GRIS. 

#6 RAVIN'S TOWN might be the biggest "stab" in this field as a maiden and lacking the foundation of many of his rivals. With that said, he has the edge on local experience and while they will be stretching out and stretching out quite a bit, Mojica will have them on the lead and is going to take them as far as he can on the front end. #2 PATRIOT SPIRIT might try and be the only one in the field to run with him early though has been exposed (SPRINTER) at the longer distances. 

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