Handicapper Tips & Picks

As an individual, #3 SOLOMON VANDY has an advantage in this field and the horse to beat, though in the race shape he loses that edge. He could still overcome though as the projected favorite, that could present a value opportunity on others.

#2 MONEY AGENT returns from the same 4/6 common race as SOLOMON VANDY and recorded the same B- OptixGRADE, overall effort on the day. The two both showed run with different type of “trips” for the minors and looking at OptixPLOT there is not much between the two as they return today.

Keeping on the OptixPLOT theme, #1 MY TENNIS SHOES is upgraded in today’s race shape both on Standard and Surface/Distance. His Past 3 Runlines show a BTL and B OptixGRADE from the two recent (Standard) starts at the FG and in the 3/23 event had a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) making a WIDE MOVE and visually could hand the STRETCH out in distance, the change in today’s race.

#6 EIGHT MAY also returns with a positive PREP? Projection from opening week, the 3/24 race where they broke SLOG and continued to GALLOP+ and returning to the Plot, could present a pace advantage scenario with the Quad I Square position – the edge over #7 SHARPENYOURFAITH. 

#1 ALDORA fits as the favorite recording some of the higher figures in this field by a commanding margin. She meets a smaller field than what she has faced in the past and moves from one post extreme to another following the 3/31 local start when stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a RUSH for position stalked by the winner, Fast N Happy trained by the on fire T. Young.

#7 TILL caught a solid group in her debut closing weekend at TP and showed early speed, legit early speed part of a Fast early pace before losing ground. She will return here with the blinkers on and an upgrade for this second start is not out of the question. Bendezu sticks with TILL departing #6 CITY SHACK as they were aboard for that 3/31 start. #5 SPICY DELIGHT also showed credible early speed on debut and stayed on well while WIDE, though gives up recency and a significant class rise returning today against open company.

The class drop looks key for #3 COLLIER though another that must improve and going back to her MCL efforts prior to the claim raced under a similar par to today and was not effective in those events. There could be some upside from those efforts recorded as a juvenile and does pick up an “out of town” live rider in R. Gutierrez for this event, that could present some intent.  

#4 FLATHEAD FINALE recorded a solid figure on debut (the lone Surface/Distance start as shown on the Plot) though has struggled to get back to that effort or take a step forward. The cutback in distance could assist though still leaves some questions that require price compensation. #2 HATTIE BLOOM will also exit the FG meet and also making the transition to MSW from the recent MCL events on that circuit. While the move could be taken as a lateral if not a slight drop showing up here they still must collectively improve. There are some subtle upgrades for HATTLE BLOOM from her recent starts as she projected to IMPROVE off the debut, stepped forward in the second start three weeks later and was compromised X_BIAS back on 3/24. 

This is a bada** race; there are six legit racehorses in this field that know how to win and all capable in this spot to do just that. Starting with ML favorite #4 WENT WEST he will take the class drop and looks placed properly here and the connections taking the gamble to run in this spot as they must race for the $50k tag, the first time he’s been in for a tag in his career. He does hold a race over this course from last may and finished off-the-board and was also cold on the board for the connections that day and could be something to monitor both of the board, early action in the double pool and the will pays.

In terms of race shape, #1 LOOKIN FOR BALA is as quick as #2 FAITHFUL RULER and the two drawn side-by-side along the inside project and should be engaged right from the start and in a spirited duel. #6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG can keep pace with that pair (Quad I Square) and look for first run on those two as well as looking to get the jump on WENT WEST.

#3 CORTESE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance back from the layoff on 3/30 and a gave effort under similar conditions with a subtle trip strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ past the wire. He does not hold much of an edge to justify the morning line and coming back much shorter especially compared to the overlay three weeks ago. #5 TRY TRY AGAIN is the “longshot” in this field as he returns from the layoff and showing up at this higher level the connections can race slightly “protected” in for the higher $50k tag. While he is least likely and has finished behind SHACKLEFORD STRONG last year there was June 4^th when the tables turned. 

There are no knocks on #7 CLYDE’S GREEN GO in this race though coming back from the 4/6 event shifting to team #3 WILDWOOD RUBEN in this spot. WILDROOM RUBEN was giving up recency making his first start back off extended 301-day layoff and gave up any advantage after missing the break (VSLOG) and made a huge early BURST into a fast (X_FLOW) early pace while X_WIDE and still to his credit stayed on late for show.

WILDWOOD RUBEN was given an EX – EXCUSE that day and his ability to show early speed (a serious wire-to-wire threat) and class from the races last year he is upgraded here. In addition, he could be given a slight maturity edge being a 4yo the over the sophomores including #2 JOE THE TAILOR.

JOE THE TAILOR is capable though could end up the strong second choice (if not co-favored) and that would be a shift from last year in the Futurity when he was second choice behind rival #1 RHODIUMS PRIDE one that has the benefit (PREP) of a start over this course and can step forward off that race and into the 2024 season. 

#2 GUN RUSH should be the “speed of the speed” in this race position as a Large Quad I Square over his rivals that share a similar Plot position in this race. #1 WICKED SUPRISE and #8 HOT DAME (stepping up from F&M) look to get “cooked” in this race shape and #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE has a scenario to try and sit right off that trio and look for first run as outcome to win, though in the right spot to key around in exotics. GLOBAL EMPIRE is preferred in that role over #3 COUSVINNYSACANUCK and #5 AVIANO, tracking above the ParLine a slight shift from their preferred PC Runstyle.

The ”Fire” Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate could be the key for #6 BEEALEA (Quad IV Square) one that comes into this race with solid form and BTL effort from the 3/31 common race. 

This race as it could be as straight forward with #8 TIME HEIST logical and fits right back under similar conditions, form, and trip to pair up wins with Surface/Distance Plot race shape scenario.

That scenario could downgrade #9 ROBUST whereas Standard (current form) presents a scenario where he could “wire” the field, though is stepping up in class and wheeling back from a HARD effort three weeks ago. #7 RISKY BOY has held his form this season and tough to knock especially if once again dismissed on the board and similar for #3 READTHETRANSCRIPT one that would be no surprise to hold his form and turn in another honest effort. #2 GREENSFELDER and #6 REMEMBER THE MAINE could look for that “bunched” scenario to pick up horses. 

#9 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR had a longshot look under these conditions last out and while he must improve off the C+ to compete back under similar conditions, he showed run making a MOVE through TRAFFIC and has back numbers on his best day that fit here and might be the timing for him in this spot and should present value once again. Given the finishing position, MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR should go off longer than #7 VALIANT WEST from the common race and one that gave an honest effort (B- CLOSE, GALLOP+) and has continued to progress with each race with the added furlong in their favor.

#1 RICHIESONAROLL has a similar Plot position and pace scenario to Gun Rush in Race 2, with a Large Quad I Square and the edge of the E/EP type runners in this field. He started to find his best form and strong figures for Jose Rodriguez and should be fit in this second start off the layoff and quick return from the Commonwealth (G3) two weeks ago. #5 BEEEASY is part of the “Fire” Contention though with a lower 13 SpeedRate could stick around or even present the edge should RICHIESONAROLL falter as the other Quad I Square and sitting above the ParLine.

#2 TWIRLING ROSES  will be stalking looking for that “Fire” to develop in front of them to pounce and should be assisted with that trip with front running stablemate, #3 PHILIPSBURG in here. There is that scenario to get the win (and a share at the least) in today’s race shape and in terms of form cycle wheeling back from a competitive effort (B- OptixGRADE, WIDE MOVE) three weeks ago and returning with Emigh a rider that was aboard for the place finish last month and two of his starter allowance wins in fall 2022.

Value is a slight concern for #6 SILENT SUNDAY with the change in class, a slight step up if not closer to a lateral change in class coming off the win three weeks ago at longer odds than projected today. 

A competitive race to close out the card. The class change along appears to move up #1 LARRY THE POET in this field. The timing could suggest further intent as they make their second start off the layoff and had a subtle trip on 3/31 taking up soon after the break (TROUBLE_S) as a rival came over and showed run to follow making a WIDE MOVE, something that might not show up as clear off the running line and finishing position. He has ability to show early speed as shown prominently on the Surface/Distance Plot and make things tougher on #5 GIMME THE CANDY.

#2 JET FLIGHT moved up last year off his debut around two turns cutting back to a sprint and follows a similar pattern in this second start of the season. He will also reunite with A. Lezcano, the rider aboard for their maiden win on 9/28, following the conclusion of the 2023 Hawthorne meet.