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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Not in love with 3-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS by any means but even
less fond of her rivals. Her last race was one of the best in her career, putting
a halt to a long series of poor efforts. Making her case even stronger is that her
second-place finish there was coming out of what would be considered a “key”
race, when at least two members of the field came back to win their next start,
which the first and third runners did. But her form prior was dismal and she
lost the services of the apprentice rider so she will be carrying an additional
five pounds. Her only real competition, however, would seem to come from
stablemate 4-HEAVENLY HASH. That filly broke her maiden in last, her first
start for this barn, her first start at Hawthorne and her first on dirt. She
utilized the same rider as top choice in that prior race and, without his
allowance, will be carrying seven pounds additional and taking on “tougher”
rivals. 6-MS KS DYNASTY also broke her maiden in last. However, that race was
last year and it was on synthetic surface. Her best races came in routes,
including her win, so must wonder if this race is too short for her.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
6-SET THE PACE could be ready to do just that. She’s
making her first start since October but she has been training well for a barn that
wins with a high percentage of runners coming off similar layoffs. She isn’t
the only speed in the race and she might need the tightener but believe she put
away the other speed and have something left for the stretch run. 1-BLESSED
ANNA was favored in her local debut but had to settle for a third-place finish.
Although she has shown decent speed in the past, I think she’ll be tracking the
pace today. Her last two races came on off tracks so and two of her five wins
came on “wet” surfaces so if weatherman’s advance forecast is current, it could
turn out to be to her advantage. 3-IZZY’S MONSTER has four wins to her credit
but, according to speed figures, her second-place finish in last could have
been her best race yet. She generally does her best running late but she did
have a near wire-to-wire winning effort a few starts back. Figures prominently.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
6-COCKTAIL CUTIE displayed unusual speed, for her, in her
first start outside California. She just missed hanging on. She’s meeting a
similar group of runners, though this field might contain more early speed. Might
be taken a bit off the pace with the hope of coming on late. 3-FERGIE ATTACK
doesn’t own blistering speed but she does appear to be the quickest member of
this field. She tired in last but was chasing a tough winner while making her
first start since October. 5-COWGIRL FRANKIE doesn’t always fire but, when she
does, she can close a ton. Has a legitimate chance to mow them down in the
stretch.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Closer 1-MILLARD’S SMILE was able to take advantage of a
fast pace in last and proceeded to fly by the field late. If anything, the pace
of this race could turn out to be even more favorable. Not only will the two
members who fought for the lead in last return in this one, but they will be
joined by a couple others that relish the front end. 7-BLOOMING GARDEN was
overmatched in his first start of the meet but there’s a good chance that he’ll
be the best of the speed with the drop to this level. Not sure he’ll be able to
clear the field but his presence should certainly guarantee a quick pace which
helps the chances of top choice. 2-STORM BORN is another possibly capable of
coming on late, although he is often sent for the lead. But, if he’s allowed to
relax early, he could pass the tiring speed runners in the stretch.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Have to give 5-DIALED INNA the benefit of the doubt. Her
two races this year were awful but both were against better rivals than these. They
drop her into a more favorable condition today. She’s had the versatility in
the past to handle any pace. Should wake up at this level. 7-EMITYAAZ and
2-TIMELESS GLORY dueled for the lead in last and both held on well to finish
third and second, respectively. However, that was Emityaaz’s first race of the
year and she should be fitter after that effort while Timeless Glory will carry
an additional seven pounds with the switch to a journeyman rider. Might switch their
finish order because of those changes.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Love the versatility of 8-READTHECLIFFNOTES. Obviously
this 9-year-old has lost a few steps but he is as game as they get. He won 10
of his 17 local races, nine of 17 at the distance, and he’s two-for-two on off
tracks. Don’t think he’ll get involved in an early speed duel with his younger
rivals but do expect him to have dead aim late. 6-CAMP DADDY was impressive
when wiring the field in his local debut. However, like top choice, he’s been
just as impressive when coming from off the pace. If he goes for the lead again
they might not catch him but, even if he doesn’t, expect him to be a factor
nearing the wire. 4-ARDENWOOD owns good speed but he does tend to tire. He won
four of five in 2023 but hasn’t even hung on to finish in the money in five
2024 starts.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
6-KINGSWOOD only raced evenly in his local debut but
think that race was a little tougher than this one and he did have some
trouble. He’s at his best when tracking the pace so he needs an alert break to
get him into position quickly. 5-JRUE BREEZE and 2-MAQAMAT both drop from a
tougher condition. Neither showed much there in their last couple races but
both are eligible to improve in this one.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
5-SECESSION turns back in distance to make his local
debut. He tired late when stretched out for the first time but he barely lost
the last time he sprinted. Not sure how he’ll handle the transition to dirt but
would imagine it won’t pose a problem. 9-SENDMEDOWNTHEROAD makes his debut. Leading
barn wins about 22% of their first timers though not quite as often with the
low-level maiden claimers. We’ll see. 4-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX finished in the money
in last couple at this level. He was far back from the winner in each event but
the winners of those races were far ahead of everybody else and don’t think there
are any of that type in this race.