Handicapper Tips & Picks

#9 SALLY O’MALLEY could step up in her second career start and from a subtle trip on debut. Since the March initial start, she has trained forwardly and holding her own in the 4/27 work with the older stablemate Huntress For Hire one that stepped up to break her maiden on this Derby/Oaks weekend last year in her third start coming over from races at the FG.

In terms of the FTS (have not seen #7 ROCK HARBOR) train #6 THOUGHTFUL has the nod, the 4/7 move was strong and showed speed and class when headed pulling away from her workmate. #1 FLAWLESS QUALITY second best to Bee Dancer. PENNY ROYAL just okay

#10 BELLOFTHEBLUEGRASS has consistently recorded solid figures with the place finish from #4 SUNDANCE FEATURE also credible (despite being fractious in the GATE) from her TP debut.

#11 SEDONA was professional breaking her maiden on debut at GP and since the race has trained forwardly and should move up with that start under her belt and based on her physicality appreciate every bit of the route of ground.

#9 SIDAMARA was impressive in her maiden win last month and should be able to take the step up in class to compete with today’s group.

#6 WONDER RIDE will make her belated return and has been working her way around this week training with Oaks contender, Thorpedo Anna. 

#7 CYCLONE MISCHIEF should be sitting on a peak effort and could be dismissed and should offer the necessary price compensation. He turned in a solid effort and figure under similar conditions to today’s race on 11/25, a first start back off the 204-day layoff. From here he had a “trip” in the F. Hooper (G3) at GP and moved forward three weeks ago at KEE at a distance further than his ideal and should be at the right ONE_TURN design and looking for that win.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF had run faster races than #8 ARTHUR’S RIDE one that shown class and improvement race-to-race and figures to hold favoritism as projected. Certainly capable though there are the value alternatives as he still must show he can continue to improve with the other established runners in this field.

That includes #5 INJUNCTION comes into this race with current form and upside in this third start off the layoff. He did not handle the inside post and trip that followed from the layoff return at OP and gained fitness with the WIDE trip over the KEE turf last month. The turf-to-dirt move has been used in the past resulting in a forward move and INJUNCTION also holds solid form at the one-turn 7-8f distance with figures on par.

#12 LUGAN KNIGHT has upside though could come down from the 15-1 ML given the connections, stakes finishes and figures overall. A value case can be made though has some hurdles all around and still requires price compensation. 

#4 MYRISKYAFFAIR does not technically hold the N2X win though has “winning” race at this level and similar par from the events last season. He has remained consistent throughout to suggest she can hold her form back off the layoff here and preferred surface/distance. #9 EMBRACE ME takes the big class drop from stables company and the right move to place her where she fits. She ha the benefit of a race over this course and solid effort here last May in N1X company. #11 FREYDIS THE RED will also drop down from stakes company though still must show where she fits and projects to be shorter of the two and perhaps three. 

Tough to argue this race does not go through #4 IDIOMATIC as she makes her return here. Her early speed makes her a threat on the front end and can force the others (#6 XIGERA, #7 DORTH VADER) to run with her early.

The pace advantage could give her the jump on the returning #5 PRETTY MISCHEIVIOUS the 2023 Oaks (G1) winner that continued to improve throughout her campaign holding her own in G1 company and tough to dismiss on class. #2 TAXED has the edge on recency and will be tested to step up though can improve off the less-than-ideal Apple Blossom (G1) trip last month. 

California turf form makes an easier transfer sprinting and willing to upgrade those runners shipping in. #10 TONY ANN will give up recency to stablemate #5 ELM DRIVE though preferred of the two D’Amato runners suiting perfectly for the 5.5f distance and today’s race shape. The race shape should be honest early with #2 OVA CHARGED down inside though will have to hold her form shipping out of the FG and deal with the heat from others in this field including an in-form and well-intended #8 AG BULLET for R. Baltas. #9 SECRET MONEY can often level herself too much to do though has been competitive from an outside post and upgraded X_FLOW bac in March at GP and put in a strong CLOSE in the Giants Causeway (G3) three weeks ago. 

With price compensation (12-1 FO) willing to take a swing with #10 TRADEMARK in this competitive group where a case can be made for any in this field. TRADEMARK might have been a little lucky with the Clark (G2) scenario and not on the level, timing, distance, or trip in the Pegasus (G1) to start off the year in a race that has held form and stayed productive. They have regrouped and reset here at CD and this course and distance where they have been effective and should present value in this event and from the recent running line.

This is another competitive event though at 6-1 #2 ASPEN GROVE is the play and value in this field. She has class and consistency to her and despite settling for place behind #10 SPARKLE BLUE last out, ASPEN GROVE had to deal with subtle adversity and was giving up recency at the time making her first start of the season off a 153-day layoff. 

#4 TRIAL is always striving towards ascension and cutting back to the one-turn things should line up with her foundation. In the Bourbonette Oaks she was one step away going a bit further than her ideal and should be sitting on a peak effort back at ONE_TURN and to the CD main track then scene of her debut maiden win last year.

#9 HALINA’S FORTE should also appreciate the cutback in distance and from the fitness exiting the Ashland (G1) when forced to RUSH and PRESSED on the lead before losing ground. Things were unknown for her that day and with nothing to lose taking the chance around two turns, this race was always sitting in their back pocket.

Those two should present value with the two Cox runners, #1 IMPEL and #7 DENIM AND PEARLS in this field; capable types that will be high owned runners and tougher to back straight up at short odds. 

Will look to beat #11 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET as she projects to be favored in this race according to the ML. She earned a solid figure and the win on debut last month at OP though did not catch the strongest group and the waters are much deeper today.

Preferred the debut OP maiden win by #7 TWEETSTER she had to do a lot of running to get the win and has been given the 35-day recovery since and a quality type that can step up and compete against winner. #8 TWIRLING GOOD TIME also turned in a dominant maiden win and has the benefit of a start taking on winners and upgraded coming back to the SHORTER, ONE_TURN distance from that return event last month at KEE. 

#3 ABBY THE BULL DAWG has kept up her conditioning since the claim and from the 47 day break following the recent win. She has remained consistent this season recording figures that fit with this field and that is key to compensate for her run style making the late dramatic run from well off the pace.

There should be some pace in the race including #6 DIVA TREVA coming back off a front running win and the necessary drop to move her up where she can compete on this circuit. The connections keep her on this circuit scratching from the Wilma Mankiller stakes last month. She could be the speed of the speed though does not appear to be lone with others in this field and #7 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF to her outside. Fit made easy work of the group last month and while on the lead that day can rate of necessary. She fits with other overall form and for the new connections that will be able to keep her protected here first off the claim. 

#9 LIGHTENING STRUCK could be a bit of a stab in this spot though comes into this event with form here this season and could land in the right time and place for that win. His efforts back in January at the higher claiming level make him a player and then following those events has some subtle trips from the inside and the subtle change in post could be another positive factor here. Court will take over today and requires the right handling, a rider that has not had the strongest meet though capable.

#4 TROPIC STORM finds a subtle change in class from the races this season. The overall conditions are lighter while the par could be closer to a lateral move. The timing creates a further change given a little more time between starts with the 42-days and that could be what they return to get back to the efforts from earlier this season to compete here.

#11 TEE BURNS will take the same path and timing into this event and one that one his best day has legitimate early speed and a threat to take this field gate to wire. He took the drop the higher claiming level following a slight break into the February start and returned with front wraps something to look for here and as they return pick up a rider change to journeyman, R. Vazquez and that could be a positive sign today as well. 

#1 BARSTOOL BABE perhaps the most likely of the group to hit the board though has not show much progression and could see one of the lightly raced types step up in this spot. #2 OUTWORK MOM caught a competitive group on debut. The winner of the race came back to win a N1X last month and a few others stepping up to clear the maiden condition and improve their figures she had some quick works leading into the debut and a pair of published works since though a gap from 3/30 until that recent 4/21 move.

IL-bred #5 IRISH SPARK will make their belated debut here as she has been training all season long here at Oaklawn. There was a gap following the trio of December moves and since March has been consistent and appears race ready.

S. Asmussen has the two first time starters #3 ROYAL ARTS and #4 LEMONESSE and tough to split the pair coming in off steady works. LEMONESSE had a couple of local works though overall longer published tab than ROYAL ARTS one that topped off the series with a bullet from the gate on 4/21. 

#13 HEATED ARGUMENT moves up big time in this spot though will require some racing luck sitting on the AE. Her presence in or out of the race would impact the race shape as her early speed could be dominant here making things tougher on some others with that trip though unable to draw in could upgrade #6 THE GIRL IN RED and #8 TIMBAVATI.

The change in class should also assist #1 UNBRIDLED TWISTER as she had held her form this season though not quite on the level of her competition and finds a much softer race par today, a big change for her and should have her right on par to compete on that move alone.

#4 GOLD STRATEGY finds a lateral change in class though placed where she can compete and due for some racing luck on the track. She has had the WEATHER this season though also WIDE trips including the 4/20 start even with the rail draw as she broke in a tangle and behind the field made a WIDE MOVE to try and recover to get into the race. 

#10 LOST LOVE had a love just over a week ago and was compromised by the SLOG and outside post WIDE throughout. The connections might have had some intent on the day and wheeling right back to drop down in the final week and make further changes with the blinkers on and Vazquez up.

Arrieta aboard LOST LOVE last month and a couple other times sticks with #12 Q’S YOUR MAMA one that make a lateral class change to race here for a tag against open though also finds the stretch out in distance and one that shown early speed that from the outside must try to clear. #7 AIR CASTLE makes a belated second start from the 2/3 common race and further changes with the distance and blinkers and almost treated as a first time starter with all the changes and from the debut over the off track she did NO_HANDLE.

#5 ELUSIVE EMPRESS might not appear as obvious as some others in this field though could present some upside overall and in this second start of the meet. She dropped in for the tag last month in a higher MCL event and along with LOST LOVE flattered as the winner, Thorny returned last Friday to win a higher level N1 allowance.

#6 DR. WOODS MIRACLE is tougher to trust on the win end though one that can move up from her most recent starts and back at a level where she has consistently hit the board. 

Longtime maiden #7 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN could just catch the right spot and group to pick up the belated sin. She has turned in some competitive races this season and overall at this level. That carries to her conditioning cutting back from the recent route races and her early speed should be effective in today’s race shape.

The class change and cutback in distance should also assist #3 GOGO BOBBYJO one that turned in a competitive race in the place finish back in February pairing up her figure in March at the two turn distance a tough beyond her ideal. She shares that 2/2 common race with #1 ART QUEEN one that returns with a slight 43-day freshening second off the claim. There should be intent with that timing as well as the blinkers back on after coming up short following a poor start as the favorite last month. She is one that can be kept in the mix and no surprise to win though requires some price compensation with the off the pace run style.

#11 DEVLISH GAL makes some changes for this second start and could move up naturally with the experience. Going back to the March debut she had a rough start and made a middle MOVE before losing ground as the top two finished together and clear. Many from that group return here and Q’S YOUR MAMA returning in race 5 worth a follow.

#13 THIS DAMSEL MAYFLY can be kept in the mix should she draw in. She follows a similar pattern and class level going back to the competitive place effort on March 23^rd. 

The early pace should be contentious and the edge of the front runners sides with #11 EXCESS MAGIC though they have hurdles draw well outside the other speed and would still require to carry their speed the 6f distance.

The pace should assist #4 SPEIGHT AND MALICE one that returns to the 6f distance and at the right level to compete looking for that first win since summer 2022. A top effort is required though has the races to get there. #5 UPSTRIKER also has races that fit and while trip is key he could find the right handling returning with Arrieta, the rider aboard for the open length win last summer. His form this season has been consistent with progress race to race and upgraded from the WEATHER impacted poor track conditions and traffic trip in March. His runstyle and top efforts are in line with #3 DERBY DATE one that could be shorter of the two and kept in the mix. 

#12 HERE U COME AGAIN appears a standout in this field and should be bet accordingly as perhaps the shortest price favorite on the card. She turned in a dominant effort breaking her maiden on debut and taking nothing away the place finish in the Adirondak (G3) in just a second start and juvenile finale.

Hartman has a pair in this race with the local experience siding with #4 BROOKLYNN DREW over #1 FLOWER MOUND in this spot. BROOKLYNN DREW was giving up the local experience shipping in for the Purple Mountain stakes a competitive event for a $200k purse even with the compact field. She has been on track training locally since and along with the freshening for this allowance will race back on Lasix as well.

Bejarano shifts and sticks with #7 HUSH IT HONEY one that has held her own against open company the change in play for rival #8 HAULIN ICE wheeling back form the Rainbow Miss Stakes where there was not much between the pair on the day and those two well clear of the others.

#9 SHY SHY is the wild card in this field making a belated return  she did finish behind rival #3 TAPITURE’S LADY last season at CBY though not much between them overall and SHY SHY closed out the year in a competitive claiming event last October at Keeneland and with a pair of strong local works into this race and like her stablemate #11 SPIN THE BREEZE will race for the $100k tag.

Asmussen also brings in a pair with #2 AFFECTION stepping up off a dominant debut maiden win though faces a much tougher seasoned group today with #5 FREEBURN holding experience at this level though coming back from a favorable ground SAVED trip three weeks ago with a lower race par than today’s event. 

#6 KANTEX appears pointed to this race and off her solid form this season. She turned in a competitive effort in this race last year despite the outcome had a less than ideal ride racing in TRAFFIC and won the GALLOP+ out. This will be her first start back around two turns this meet though appears they were waiting for this event for that distance change.

#9 KABOOM BABY won this race last year with a favorable trip and one that has held her form this season. Distance wise this route of ground can be hurdle unless that perfect trip is established and something that should be considered on value.

Trip will also be key for #10 BENNYKAYANDSUZYTOO from the outside and should be hustled along with that post and her preferred front running way. If able to clear and establish position she could be dangerous and to take this field a long way on the front end and make things all around tougher on #2 MOZINGO stretching out for the first time. Trip will also key for #1 SULWE at the rail and Barbosa taking over for the first time today. That could create some value that otherwise might not have been there coming off a win and competitive efforts all around this season. 

#11 PATE makes some changes as she return this season and looking to improve and compete as expected from the public in those races. Ortiz will take over and add the blinkers as well as the timing since that change. While she is looking for that first win this meet. She turned in a solid effort off the bench with the place finish given the TROUBLE in running and back to finish in a BLANKET at the wire in February.

#7 TITLED LADY has held her form this season and at this allowance condition coming back from the BLANKET finish last month. She has the edge of the group from that common race and now with the edge in local experience making her second start on this circuit. She is not a true front running type though should be able to show tactical speed in today’s race shape and did break her maiden lone on the lead giving her that option for Arrieta as well.

#12 TIFFANY TWIST will give up local experience though shows up in form and transferring her current form sits on par with many in this field. Her runstyle should also fit with today’s group to work out a trip even with the outside post. 

#4 APRIL FLOWER BOUND turned in a BTL effort last month and that race should be overlooked given the running line and finishing position. Like others in this field she will stretch out for the first time though there was intent last year to stretch out keying off a scratch prior to the layoff she returned from in that most recent start.

#1 MY JULIA has shown mild progression race to race and that could come at the right time and place with the class drop today. She will stretch out in distance though as good a time as any with the fitness and the extreme post position change dropping to the rail from the far outside two weeks ago.

#2 LADY WOOPIG has the route experience and experience at this level with the class drop from facing open company and higher race par last month. She should be sitting on a top effort and looks to have come out of the race well recording two published works since that 4/6 start. The 3/8 race at this level was a common race with #7 KAVA, LADY WOOPIG shorter than the two on the day though KAVA likely overlooked and had a compromised TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip and returning with the barn change could see her step up and hold her form, a lateral change in class from the 4/17 maiden event that also carries to the place finisher, #10 ARIEL M D one that projected to and improved off her debut.

#12 PRESLEYS TURN has followed and every other pattern and should be sitting on one of her better races and those efforts sit in line with some of the more “obvious” runners and could be overlooked off the recent finishing positions and outside draw.

T 7 Sue Anne 2 WIllys Home Run 6 Muscone

P 9 Wicked Games 3 Tymal Envoy 2 Twin B Crunch Time

T 3 Valuable Miss 5 Love Those Legs 7 Lexus Angel

P 8 Gogettermisscheddr 7 Premier Heiress 5 Whole Lotta Luck

P 9 Darandawgswatchin 4 Angostura Hanover 3 Wildcat Star

P 7 Lightning Lizzie 2 Wicked Weather 3 Pass Line

P 6 Century Komodo 4 Lous World 3 Dab Ocolor

P 5 It’s a Love Thing 7 Odds On Platinum 8 Sorcha Seelster

P 1 Ms Quick Sand 4 fear The Crush 7 Caviar N Crackers

T 8 Give Me Karets 3 American Blizz 5 Angel Of My Dreams

P 5 Sweet Loving 1 Littlebearcat 4 Raptors Won

P 6 Snow Shark 7 Kele Kele 2 Ethel

KENTUCKY OAKS (G1)

#5 THORPEDO ANNA is a legitimate contender in this race and even as an obvious type should not be favored (though a case to be made she should be) given the depth of this field. THORPEDO ANNA has been campaigned for this race. She dominated the field breaking her maiden on debut making a WIDE MOVE and came right back and did it again two weeks later in her first start against winners. She was favored in the Golden Rod (g2) though asked to do a lot of running in a short period of time, she might have been the best horse though the wrong bet that day. The connections found no reason not to run giving her experience around two turns and in graded stakes company, regardless of outcome was going to hit the bench and point for Oaks (G1) 2024. That brings the story to the Fantasy (G2) where she was back with another dominant effort and just enough to give her the confidence on the win end and conditioning though not taking too much out of the tank with this race 34-days out.

The lone “A” is joined by a lone “B” sitting with #13 JUST F Y I following a similar path into this race as THORPEDO ANNA for the connections. While she did not win her return in the Ashland (G1) she ran a solid race and given a lot of credit to finish second behind a strong performance by #14 LESLIE’S ROSE one that did have a perfect trip, though still visually had to like the way she did it. From the early stages, LESLIE’S ROSE looked strong and comfortable whereas JUST F Y I was the opposite and betting in-running early you could have been tempted to lock in off the board rather than the place outcome, a credit to her class.