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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri May 3rd, 2024

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Stakes Spotlight

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

KENTUCKY OAKS (G1)

#5 THORPEDO ANNA is a legitimate contender in this race and even as an obvious type should not be favored (though a case to be made she should be) given the depth of this field. THORPEDO ANNA has been campaigned for this race. She dominated the field breaking her maiden on debut making a WIDE MOVE and came right back and did it again two weeks later in her first start against winners. She was favored in the Golden Rod (g2) though asked to do a lot of running in a short period of time, she might have been the best horse though the wrong bet that day. The connections found no reason not to run giving her experience around two turns and in graded stakes company, regardless of outcome was going to hit the bench and point for Oaks (G1) 2024. That brings the story to the Fantasy (G2) where she was back with another dominant effort and just enough to give her the confidence on the win end and conditioning though not taking too much out of the tank with this race 34-days out.

The lone “A” is joined by a lone “B” sitting with #13 JUST F Y I following a similar path into this race as THORPEDO ANNA for the connections. While she did not win her return in the Ashland (G1) she ran a solid race and given a lot of credit to finish second behind a strong performance by #14 LESLIE’S ROSE one that did have a perfect trip, though still visually had to like the way she did it. From the early stages, LESLIE’S ROSE looked strong and comfortable whereas JUST F Y I was the opposite and betting in-running early you could have been tempted to lock in off the board rather than the place outcome, a credit to her class.