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Sat May 4th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Churchill Downs Race 12
Post Time 5:57 PM CST
THE KENTUCKY DERBY
Fierceness might be the best horse in the race but there’s no
guarantee that he’ll get the best trip or even a good trip. I know his
connections say they like the draw but he’s going to have to work awfully hard
to get position from out there with all the speedy runners to his inside. So, I
opted to look for a runner that could take advantage of what promises to be a
blistering early pace and that seems to have the ability to get the 10-furlong
distance. 2-SIERRA LEONE just seems to get better with every start. He’s only a
nose away from a perfect four-for-four record. Like that he was starting to
draw away in his two races this year, both at nine furlongs. The pace sets up
but, as always, it’s going to come down to the trip. 4-CATCHING FREEDOM is
another who could be favored by the pace. He’s another that has been steadily
progressing. He finished a couple lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star
but went on to capture the Louisiana Derby at a mile and three sixteenths. However,
like top pick and all the other deep closers in this race, they have to deal
with traffic jams and one brief check could cost them the race. Obviously 17-FIERCENESS is the one to beat.
The Beyer Speed Figure (110) he generated in the Florida Derby was INSANE and
people often use the last Beyer as a handicapping source. Obviously in a
20-horse field the trip is all-important and he could struggle to get the right
trip from his outside post but he might really be that good. Would love to see
the Japanese entrant 11-FOREVER YOUNG run well. By most reports, he is one of
the best Japan ever sent here for this race and his perfect record, 5-for-5, lends
credence to those reports.
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
3-LITTLE
STEVEN could be tough. He’s stretching back out after a competitive
sprint effort in his local debut. There is plenty of other speed in this race
but he could outlast the rest. 2-BOURBON
LIFE finished second here in early April. He didn’t show much in his follow up effort in Indiana but he was taking on tougher company. He
looks like one of the few in here possessing any late run. If a heated pace duel develops,
he could fly by. 6-T
LAW was one paced in last, his first start for this barn, but that race was probably only
a prep. He was racing for the first time since August
and he was sprinting. Stretches to a better distance today. Guessing he’ll
be close at the finish.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
The first local turf race of the season
is an interesting affair. Not many of the entrants are confirmed turf sprinters,
though most have had at least some experience. As usual, in these short turf
sprints, there is an abundance of early speed. Not sure if
anyone in here really stands out but have to go with 5-SHE’S
INTHEARMYNOW. She has had two turf sprints, recording a win and a
second-place
finish. Plus,
she’s trained by Wayne Catalano. She’ll
have plenty of company on the front end but might
be able to outlast the rest. 7-MITOLE
MAGIC finished third in her two turf sprints, racing at Aqueduct. Both races
were contested early last fall
and both were against maidens. However, her “figs” from those races were
competitive and she looks like she will do her best running late. 8-ANGEL
EXPRESS lost ground throughout in her
first start of the year and beat only one rival. However, that was on dirt and she had been far more effective on turf
in the past. Like that she has some versatility and is capable of running well on or off the pace. Think we’ll
see a far better effort today.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
5-RED
LABEL is a slim pick but he’s coming off a strong effort in Indiana, he’s
a versatile kind of runner that is adept at coming from off the pace or going
right to the lead, and he has
the right rider to make the right decision depending on the way the pace
develops. 2-RIVSONAROLL
drops in class. Speedy runner races for the top barn and is another with a
sharp rider in the irons. However, he tends to run out of gas late and there is
plenty of other speed in here to keep him honest on the front end. 1-TIME
HEIST figures prominently. He’s two for two at the meet and won both fairly easily.
Might be able to handle this slightly better company.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
6-GO
STORMIN GIRL has been solid against rivals like these, especially at Hawthorne.
She’s been in the money in 17 of her local races,
winning seven times, including last. She likes to come from off the pace but think
she can lead all the way if they send her. It was hard to pick against 2-STYLE.
It’s not like she’s been in good form
but she hasn’t been in bad form
and she’s been in against much better rivals. She’s
dropping to the lowest level of her career and racing without blinkers. Would
like her better at a slightly higher claiming level. Drops like this can be a
cause for concern. Use caution. 7-
SUMMER AT THE SPA might be the best of the rest but think she would have a far better shot on
turf.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Very
interesting maiden race. 7-RIVER
RIDGE might have the edge. He had one race, at Tampa, where he split the field.
Adds blinkers for this outing. Worked well, apparently with
blinkers, since that start. 4-TOSCANO
is a first timer with great drills. Heard rumors that he was fast and his drills suggest that he is. Races for
the top barn and they win with 21% of their first timers. Beautifully-bred 1-YOUNG
MISCHIEF shouldn’t be overlooked. His drills downstate have been
very good. He’ll be a much longer price than the top pair. 2-PONTUS
finished third versus Illinois breds
in his only race. This could be a tougher field
but his race was good enough to warrant another look, at least as an inclusion on the
bottom of vertical gimmicks.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Don’t
think it will rain enough between Thursday and Friday for races to come off the
turf but, just in case, we need to take a look
at 12-JEFF
THE LION. He’s entered for main
track only and he could prove best if this race does get moved to dirt. 4-SIMPLE
LOGIC seems to hold a huge advantage on turf. Ignore his last
couple on dirt. Although he has only one turf victory, he is a turf runner and this could be the easiest field he ever
met on the lawn. 2-RED
HORNET is another with poor recent form but another that has been far better on
the weeds. He was stakes placed early in his career and has earned over $170k
in turf races. 8-LAND
MARK DEAL has been better in turf
sprints but he’s another that will benefit
from the move back to grass.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Have to give 7-DEFIANT MALICE another chance at this level. He’s
been ineffective in his two local starts but he was routing in his local debut,
against maiden specials, and he had some trouble, on an off track, in last in
what turned out to be a “key” race from which multiple members came out of that
race to win their next. 8-THE SPEEDY ONE finished second in the first two races
of his career but up the track in his last two. Now he’s turning back in
distance and dropping in class. Could reawaken. 9-BORDER PATROL makes his 2024
debut. Five of his seven races have been on turf and all have been at longer
distances. But his trainer sports a 22% win average with runners returning from
similar layoffs and when they trainer and this jockey team up, they win 38% of
the time.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
11-BATTLE SCARS gets the nod. He finished fifth in the Hawthorne
Derby in 2021 in his lone previous local start, after winning his first two
career starts at Arlington, but has been far more competitive in many of his
races since, despite winning only once since then. He’s been drawing outside
posts all year, today included, but typically runs competitively. The big
change is adding blinkers for the first time in his career. That just might
make the difference. 1-DEGREE OF RISK takes blinkers off after a three-race
experiment with them. This Grade 1 placed runner, in 2021, is hard to figure. He’s
spent most of his career on the West Coast where he has had only minor success.
In ten career turf races, he hasn’t won and managed to finish as high as second
only once. He sports the highest turf figures of any in here and it might be
argued that he’s facing easier company today but that won’t be determined until
after the race. 3-PROFESSOR HIGGINS could be interesting. This lightly-raced
runner ran well in two of his three turf races but both were claimers. He’s
been gelded since his last start, however, and his recent drills have been
brilliant. Might be headed to the best race of his career.