Handicapper Tips & Picks

On current form and figures #2 MO SMOKING and #3 PRINCESS TENKO appear strong as contenders with the edge on recency and perhaps tactical speed (Quad I) to MO SMOKING. There is a scenario for the two to run 1-2, though might force the hand of Mojica to put PRINCESS TENKO in the race and keep NO SMOKING honest as there might not be any others to take on that role.

It is still a long shot scenario for #1 POINT OF INFINITY though respect her return effort making a sneaky CLOSE and on her best day can stick around for a share. 

The case with #1 HEAVENLY HASH last week stepping up to winners was an identical race par from the maiden win on 4/7. That par changes here; and while she is not out of it, she must step up deal with the other Quad I pace pressure. #4 SWEET CRYSTAL being one of those runners and one that has run well here over this course and looks well intended off the layoff with the class drop.

#6 ZENCHUA SKY will need all the assistance in the pace department though as an individual she has moved forward with each return start, finds a lower par from the most recent race, and turned in a BTL effort closing out the 2023 season at FAN. 

#2 BEEHIVE has enough foundation to step up back up against winners and in this second start of the season. She paired up her top fig from 8/31 in the recent maiden win and that number standing out some of the higher in this field. #1 MISS RIVER RAT is right there with one of her better numbers to date the EX – EXCUSE on 12/10 at the FG a race moved to the main track. She has returned to this circuit with the BTL effort opening weekend (3/24) and stepped up with the B OptixGRADE with a big CLOSE after doing herself no favors – fractious in the GATE and TROUBLE_S. 

#7 WRITTEN CONSENT has recorded some of the higher figures and competitive numbers that fit at the MCL level she returns to here. She has the benefit of a local start on 4/7 a day impacted by the WEATHER conditions racing in the steady rain and win and chasing lone winner, Problematica, and with Tribest in a place photo.

#2 COLLIER had a right to step forward especially with the class drop. She had a near excuse two weeks ago taking a legit stumble (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate and even before that was given a very aggressive WARM_UP that day by out of town rider, R. Gutierrez. She will pick up solid local rider holds the fitness from that race and moves up naturally on the drop.

The change in class is closer to a lateral move for #1 CHERYL’S APPEALS one that really must turn things around and while she has not had the cleanest trips, some of that has been self-inflicted. If she is to be more effective today that is likely to happen showing early speed from the rail and if so can make things tougher on #4 MAGGIE E one with quick early speed though runs out of gas. 

#3 I’M BOX OFFICE was one to follow from the 2022 season two strong efforts that did not yield the best outcome but visually the talent was there and showed it coming back in 2023 with a dominant (B+) MSW win. She held her own against allowance company on 8/2 though had a full EX - EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ and despite the running line and finishing position showed a strong turn of foot and made a serious late CLOSE.

#7 SECRET OPERATION might lack the same class as I’M BOX OFFICE though should present value in the mix and as an alternative to the likely co-second options in #1 GRACELEADSUSHOME and #6 VISIONISTA.

*If this race comes off the turf and on an off-track #5 PINK LADY LU SHA is a serious off-track specialist, a true type in that category. 

#5 RONIC could present a weaker favorite in this group considering the complexion (Plot) of this field and a solid alternative in #7 JOYFUL GHOST. He comes in with competitive efforts in the N3 conditions at TAM, a move off the rail that has been a long time coming and into this race with the 39-day freshening.

#6 SLAVA UKRAINI has progressive form and numbers that fit here, and early speed will make things tougher on RONIC from a pace standpoint. #4 JIM AND JIM could be assisted by the “Fire” Contention and upgrade position on Surface/Distance. Getting out of the gate (VSLOG) has been a hurdle this season at OP though the effort making a MOVE after missing the break was a positive sign things could be turning around for them.

If there is a scenario (as suggested on OptixPLOT) for #1 DRIVEN ONE and #5 PARKER to take part in a Fast early (above ParLine) pace, that can assist and set up a trip for others in this field and value with DRIVEN ONE as the projected favorite.

#3 MISTER CHARMING could secure first run. He has enough tactical speed Quad I Square to rate off those two and track with an inside trip, likely #4 NOT VERY GENTLE looking for a similar run to his outside. Those two can “get the jump” on #8 MILLARD’S SMILE (Quad IV Square) as he wheels right back from a big effort just last week making his run against the dynamic and wind, a potentially HARD effort that has not been given much recovery time from.

#2 FUTURE VISION does not have a strong a Plot position, however some of that could be die to  the recent trips especially the TROUBLE on 4/14, the type of trip (including TACTIC-, TRAFFIC) that gives them an upgrade coming right back under similar circumstances with price compensation. 

There is a safer and “stabby” way to approach the finale: #1 EUCLID AVENUE created his own hurdles that might have given the race to the winner, Electric Charge last month. There are little concerns with the surface switch as they are proven a this MCL level and distance along with tactical speed from the inside.

#2 GIANNO has been entered a couple of times for the turf prior to today as well as placement at the MCL level. Those two combine here and off the MSW form that was a touch below does appear the right moves today for this individual.

In terms of class #9 MONEY AGENT made the drop to the MCL level this season, though this will be his first start back on the grass while in for the tag. Going back to last season, he started locally on the turf and his figure from the local debut in June earned the highest number in the field. Number wise #7 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM figures to be right there and has the turf foundation and out of the higher FG races,  though on stamina still must prove himself, the class drop should assist though there does not project to be much in terms of price compensation.

That couple shift back to #3 PERFORMANCE PLUS with the foundation this season and a return to the turf.  The same pattern of MCL races carry to stablemate #6 MY TENNIS SHOES one that could run a big race again today and get overlooked. The added ground was to his benefit and while he will make a turf debut here, the connections tried a couple of times to run on the FG turf to no avail and picking up Gallardo give them a look.

The surface switch to the grass should also move up #5 TEMPLE FOOL one that has just the once start making a CLOSE in a sprint on closing day against the profile and looks every it a TURF horse. 

Not going to overthink this race too much. It appears that 2-MO SMOKING is going to be very tough on the drop as she is the horse to beat. She has tactical speed and may inherit the lead in this race with no pace. She held her own against allowance runners in her last and is expected to be a short price today. 3-PRINCESS TENKO looks to pose the biggest threat in this spot as she has posted a couple of victories this year. She may need a little pace to chase but can't be dismissed. 4-LOTTA ROSES has run some solid races over the track in the past and could be worth consideration at a price. Her best races have come at Hawthorne but she might be a bit better on the turf.

The barn has been hot and the races over the track look to make 1-HEAVENLY HASH very tough to beat in here. She has gotten similar trips in her last two starts and responded nicely under Cohen in her last. There looks to be more than enough pace to chase which should set things up nicely for her once again. 4-SWEET CRYSTAL is one with some speed who comes off a layoff into here. She has a pair of wins over the track as well and has worked forwardly toward her return. 3-C C'C World appears to be fit off the races this spring at Mahoning Valley. She's been better on a fast track and should find those conditions today.

A competitive allowance field with numerous horses in with a shot. Looking to 6-REBA ATTACK in here as she has run a good second in each start on the meet, just missing in her last. The added 16th should help as this is another live mount on the card for jockey David Cohen. 2-BEEHIVE has speed and was a strong maiden winner in her last. She has since worked well toward the return as she figures to be on or near the lead in here. 1-MISS RIVER RAT rallied late in her last two and is another that should welcome the added distance. She added blinkers in her last and figures to be right there once again.

This is a tricky race. We know 4-MAGGIE E is going to be on the lead, and eventually she will hang on, but the question is when? She does ensure a quick pace which should help the chances of 2-COLLIER in this spot. Collier raced well in her last as she has improved since the addition of Lasix. With the class drop and expected pace ahead of her today, she may be able to run everyone down. 7-WRITTEN CONSENT has tactical speed as she ran on late in her last. She's bee relatively consistent over her recent races but the 0 for 14 record makes it tough to endorse her on top. 4-MAGGIE E is an all or nothing horse. She is going to be sent and may be clear to the top of the lane. She gets very short in the stretch though. The question is if any will be rallying to get to her in time.

The inside three appear to be the toughest in here as the move to turf moves up 2-R KATIEBUG for the Boyce barn. She just missed in a pair of turf tries at this level and races for the added money being an Illinois-bred in an open race. 3-I'M BOX OFFICE has run strictly on turf as she makes her 2024 debut. She won off a long layoff last summer and was a good third two starts back. She may get enough pace to rally behind in here. 1-GRACELEADSUSHOME is one with speed that may try to steal things from the inside. She was a solid winner in her last and is fit off a good work pattern coming into here.

5-RONIC scratched as an AE out of a turf event on Saturday for this spot and should be very tough. He was claimed for just $5k off a strong win in his last and looks to show potential on turf or dirt. The only question is how he handles the sprint but this barn has been strong all meet and he has worked very well over the track. 4-JIM AND JIM is tough to figure as his races at Oaklawn don't look great as he has appeared to tail off after being claimed from Diodoro. He turns back to a sprint in here as we welcome Constantino Roman back to the jock's room/ 7-JOYFUL GHOST has tactical speed as there's not a ton of pace in this race. He ran well on the rise after being claimed three back and could look to clear from the outside.

Turf maidens with some unknowns in here as few have made turf starts. Looks like 2-GIANNO should be a factor as he gets some class relief. He raced well two back, almost winning be rating a bit closer early in his last before backing out in the lane. Let's see how he takes to the grass. 9-MONEY AGENT has had some past turf tries as the class drop could put him in the mix today. He ran well in a couple of starts against tougher last summer and does come in off a pair of near misses on the dirt. He's worth a look at a price. 1-EUCLID AVENUE moves back to the grass as he comes off a near miss in his last. The stretch to two turns looked to be no issue as he could show speed in here.

2-MO SMOKING raced unexpectedly well in her local debut. While not close at the finish, she dueled better rivals for much of the race and held on to lose by only a couple. Drops to a more realistic level today. She was racing for $5k a couple months ago so this drop shouldn’t raise caution flags. 3-PRINCESS TENKO seems like the only competition. Tampa shipper didn’t show much in her first start after getting claimed by this barn but her speed figures suggest she’s just faster than any in here with the exception of top choice. 1-POINT OF INFINITY showed little in her first start for this barn but she was racing for the first time since August and obviously needed the race.

1-HEAVENLY HASH is two-for-two since getting claimed by this barn and shipping to Hawthorne and racing on dirt for the first time. She’s taking on a bit better today but does seem likely to keep her recent win streak intact. 4-SWEET CRYSTAL drops in claiming price to make her first start since August. Her works have been moderate but her barn brings them ready. 2-YOU’RE A DANDY finished second in her last two races. However, her recent speed figures suggest that she might not be nearly as fast as Sweet Crystal. Guess we’ll see.

There is other speed in the race but think 2-BEEHIVE holds the edge in that department. She’s coming off a wire-to-wire maiden victory. Believe she’ll be able to score back-to back front-end victories with a similar effort today. All the 1-MISS RIVER RAT lacked so far has been real estate and the slight stretch in distance to six furlongs gives her that missing ingredient today. If top pick grabs an easy lead, there might be no catching her, but if a contested pace does develop, this filly might be the first to fly by. 6-REBA ATTACK faced two tough winners in her first two starts this year and finds herself in against some tough foes again today. She did finish second in those last two races. However, she tends to lose ground late and the extra distance of this race doesn’t work in her favor. 3-BOYCE’S BANDITA graduated in open company. This will be the first time that she faces state breds since her debut last June. Certainly worth a look.

2-COLLIER has never shown a lot but her last couple races here weren’t terrible and she’s dropping to face, by far, the easiest field of her career. 4-MAGGIE E is likely to break on the lead and will take it until she runs out of gas. Just not sure she’ll last long enough. 7-WRITTEN CONSENT has been in better form than most in here, she finished in the money in seven of her 14 starts, and her speed figures suggest she’s among the fastest. 

2-R KATIEBUG could be tough on the front end. She appeared to be all out to beat state-bred allowance foes, in a dirt sprint, in last but doesn’t seem likely to face a whole lot of competition for the front end today. She just missed in her previous two turf races. Maybe she’ll hang on today. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE could finish fastest of all. She hasn’t raced since August and a troubled start in her last made her effort there far worse but she’s been training well for a barn that brings them off layoffs ready to roll. 1-GRACELEADSUSHOME has been racing competitively against Louisiana breds this year. Her two turf victories stand out in this field. Seems likely to be the one racing closest to top pick early and could be the first to move if R Katiebug runs out of gas.

3-COUNTRY GUY could be a bit of a sleeper. He finished second in his local debut after winning his previous two starts in New Orleans. Loses his talented “bug” rider but utilizes a top-notch journeyman instead. His barn is quietly having a great meet. Might surprise with this one. Morning-line favorite 5-RONIC could easily be the best of these. He was claimed from an easy win at the Fair Grounds in his last start and his barn has been on fire all meet. However, he has been better going long and most of his previous races were on the lawn. He’ll be coming late but he just might be vulnerable. 7-JOYFUL GHOST certainly figures. He’s been in great form at Tampa where he finished in the money in six of his last seven races. He’s dropping a notch after a lackluster effort versus better in last and he does fit perfectly at this level.

Hated to pick 1-DRIVEN ONE for many reasons but he does seem most likely. He’s dropping to a better level, he owned good speed in the past and there is virtually no other speed in the race, and he races for talented connections, and he’s done well with Felix in his irons. However, his first two works of the year were great but his last two not so much and he’s been far better on turf. 4-NOT VERY GENTLE returns from a lengthy layoff with only modest drills but he has done well on this track and at the distance. He beat better claimers in his last race. Might be ready for these. 8-MILLARD’S SMILE has a win and a place in his last two races. Meets better here but does seem to fit.

2-GIANNO has had three races. He just missed in one of them and finished up the track in the other two. But this will be his first race on turf and the first time he takes on maiden claimers. He’s bred for the lawn and races for the top barn. Might get it done. 7-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He’s been meeting mostly Louisiana breds with little success but it could still be a whole new ballgame with runners at this level. 1-EUCLID AVENUE has been much better since dropping into maiden claimers. His barn does well with runners making the transition from the main track to the weeds. With his good speed, he’s a threat to take this from flag fall to finish.

Race 5: 1 – 2 – 3

Pick4: 1,2,3 / 5 / 1 / ALL  ($15)

A nice allowance field going two turns comes together to kick off the Late P4, and I’ll go with #1 Graceleadsushome (4-1), who has been facing La.-breds in New Orleans recently. Those races are on par with company here, and I like the tactical speed the mare will show from the inside. Trainer Roussel spots his horses well and should have this one ready off the brief layoff.

 Race 6:  5 – 7 – 3

 I’ll be very surprised if #5 Ronic (7-5) losses today. He won last time routing and now turns back to a sprint, but he had been facing MUCH tougher throughout his career until he dropped down to $5k claimers in his last. Back up the class ladder, but one he should handle with aplomb.

Race 7: 1 – 5 – 4       

#1 Driven One (9-5) is only 3-for-23 lifetime, but has found a very good spot today from the rail while making his 2024 debut. He’s effective on both surfaces and tries dirt today vs. a very soft field. If he’s ready off the layoff for talented trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, he’ll be tough to beat with Felix in the saddle.

Race 8: 9 – 1 – 2

The last race today is a real puzzler. So much so, that I’ve decided to hit the “all-ball” in the Late Pick 4. And because it’s wide-open, I need to find a price, and that horse will be #9 Money Agent (8-1). Even though the 4yo colt is stepping up in class from $6,250 to $20k, those cheaper races were on dirt. He’s been much more effective/faster on turf however, and has never faced this low a level on the grass. If he gets a good trip/ride, he has a big shot to upset the well-balanced field.

P 4 Captain Leblanc 1 Roll With Jr 3 Buy In

P 2 B Like Cruiser 9 Sporty Deal 5 Lucky To Be Sweet

P 4 Camouflage Money 6 Y S Mathis Bro 1 Number One Hit

P 1 Devious Dame 2 Justabitofcharm 8 Ginger Tree Lena

P 6 Always At My Place 5 Pickled Preacher 1 Current Yankee

P 4 Kneedeep N Custard 5 Pound Sign 2 Father Ted Gb

T 2 Rodeo Hill 5 Phantom Tom 4 Sweet Honey

P 1 Tre Cruz 6 Buddythebookie 4 Melodies Major

P 6 Coop A Loop 2 Joker Rockwell 1 Linnycalledfrankie

T 1 Mind Yown Business 9 Winning Shadow 6 Jacked

P 8 Birthday 1 One Last Laugh 4 Louie The Horse

P 3 Master Yossi 9 The Real Way 2 Cowboy Cool

P 1 Legendary Doowrah 2 Ego Trippin 9 Mr. Legend

P 5 White Hair Rocks 1 Sawyer’s Desire 4 Captainofrocknroll

P 7 Cold Creek Guerero 5 Beauty Desires 3 Mikimoto