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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu May 9th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 LADY MERCEDES makes a return to CD where she picked up her maiden win over this course and distance. She has held her form since that claim and since returning from the extended layoff for Forster. One of those races over this course and distance and another win back in January at the FG with  B. Hernandez aboard. Following that win she was protected at the higher allowance company on the FG turf turning in a sneaky good effort despite the running line (CLOSE, GALLOP+) and remains protected here as a further positive off the bench. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 EPIC BATTLE fits as a contender and with intent as they make their return in this spot. The connections had considered returning in a higher level N1 on Oaks day scratching for this spot, a lighter event with still holding a higher purse and willing to take the gamble with the $80k tag.  His form from last season was competitive breaking his maiden on debut and stepping up holding his form with the improved effort back on 9/15 and willing to give a pass for the TACTIC- trip and layoff surrounding 10/29.

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 7:23 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive event where many fit at this level as contenders. That includes (15-1 ML) #6 MILA JUNES returning from an EX - EXCUSE on 3/15 with TROUBLE in against older and in her first start off the claim and the form from that race has held up. They were intended to return last month under similar conditions to today's event though had a slight set back and showing up here suggests intent and should be flying under the radar.