Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-GIMME THE CANDY isn’t the only speed and not even sure he’s the best but his two dirt races were very good. He wired the field in last and just missed in his debut. Throw out the turf race that was contested in between. Might be able to put away the rest of the speed and finish with something left. 1-MAHONEY ROAD has been racing against good company at Oaklawn. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but believe he’ll be flying late and can roll by them all. 3-HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC is hard to gauge. He had two terrific races at Canterbury, generating some of the highest speed figures of any in here, but the races were against Minnesota breds, he hasn’t raced since August, and there is plenty of other speed in here. 4-SECESSION is an interesting runner. He’s taking a huge jump in class after getting claimed from last but he simply crushed the field in that last race and he was claimed from one torrid trainer by another.

There seems to be three logical contenders in this race. I went with 7-SOVIET STANDARD. He’s making his third start of the meet and should finally be at the top of his game. He does seem like the only one of the three that can close a bit. Might run down tiring speed. 5-WEST ISLAND is fresh off a good second-place finish. However, he tired late in his recent races and the longer distance of this race could work against him. 2-CHARLIE LIGHTNING drops in class. Interestingly, he was claimed at Tampa two starts back, ran one race for that new barn, and then transferred to this group despite the other barn having a presence at this meet. Especially don’t like only one workout in the two months since his most recent race.

The pace of this race should set up well for 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT. The winner of last takes on a bit tougher in this spot but his barn is on fire and his rider has been riding extremely well. The speed figures for this runner are incredibly consistent and they rate among the highest of any in here. If the contested pace does develop, he should have dead late. 2-WICKED SURPRISE takes a much-needed drop in class. He showed little at Gulfstream over the winter and was majorly outclassed in his first start of the year but he has traditionally done well on this racetrack and with the drop to the right level, he figures to wake up big time. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE enjoys good speed and comes off a wire-to-wire victory. However, this 11-year-old is taking on a somewhat tougher group today and many of his rivals are also front-running types. Not sure he’ll be able to hold off the other speed in the early stages of the race and still have enough left to hold off top pick late.

Great race. Almost every runner has a legitimate chance to win this. But have to go with the hot hand. 3-RICHIESONAROLL is fresh off a victory over similar runners. He was claimed for $12,500 last June and since then has been on quite a roll. He finished second in his first two starts for this barn and then won three of his next four, losing only in a Grade 3 stakes at Keeneland. He’s capable of winning on or off the pace and is likely to be tough either way. 2-SHACKLEFORD STRONG figures prominently. He’s another former low-level claimer, he was running in $6250 claimers a year ago, that has gone on to become an accomplished runner. He’s been victorious in seven of his 11 local races, including last. 4-CORTESE isn’t quite as accomplished as the top pair but he possesses a strong closing move and could easily be a late factor.

Don’t really “like” 6-PALACE MAGIC but she does look like the only real closer in a field featuring an abundance of early speed. The drop in class is a great help. Might be able to surprise. 3-PLAY TWENTY can win right back, though she’s certainly no lock. She was able to wire the field in last, relatively unchallenged the entire race. However, this field is overflowing with early speed and some, although not in good form, appear to be quicker than she and she has not done well when she doesn’t get the lead quickly. Not sure what to make of 1-AVARSARALA. Last year she was racing competitively in allowance fields and now, after a year-long layoff, she’s in the basement. Her works give away little. If she has anything left, she’s the quickest of these, but she might be just a shadow of her former self.

On paper, it would appear that 4-IZEONDEC is the one to beat. However, he has a severe case of “seconditis”. I really can’t find anyone that seems capable of beating him but can’t give a strong recommendation to bet him to win. A place bet might be safer. 8-BRODY’S FLY takes on a bit easier and takes blinkers off. He’s one of the few in here seemingly capable of making a late move.7-STOLICH could be worth a look. He’s certainly not quick but his one and only win came the last time he was stretched out from a sprint to a route. 

Not sure this race will stay on the lawn but figure 10-RAVIN’S TOWN will be tough on either surface. He displayed good speed in both of his races, both on dirt. He appeared to be well on his way to victory in his last start but got passed late. Still, he was well clear of the rest of the field. Might hold them all safe today. 8-MIDTERM finished a distant third in his first start of the meet. He was three lengths behind Ravin’s Town at the finish, though over five lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher. He’s been gelded since that race and adds blinkers for this. We know he’ll be competitive on dirt and his barn’s turf success and his own pedigree suggests that he’ll do every bit as well on the lawn. 1-LICENSE TO STEAL makes his debut. Debut runners from his barn don’t win at a high percentage but the barn does win with about 26% turf sprinters. 

1-MON AMIE FUZZIE drops. He finished second by a head the only time he raced at the $5k claiming level. He should have dead aim late. Not in love with 3-VIOLENT GIGI but he has been meeting a bit tougher while racing in Arkansas. He finished third the last time he raced here in August. Might be able to do at least as well today. 4-CHRISTMAS PRESENT just finished second. Think he’s better going long but that second-place finish was at this distance. 5-CARL G has been in great form at Turfway on synthetic but his most recent form on dirt wasn’t nearly as good.8-PINBALLER meets possibly his easiest field ever. He backed up badly in his last three races but could finish with a little more in reserve in this easier field.