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Sat May 11th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
5-GIMME THE CANDY isn’t the only speed and not even sure
he’s the best but his two dirt races were very good. He wired the field in last
and just missed in his debut. Throw out the turf race that was contested in
between. Might be able to put away the rest of the speed and finish with
something left. 1-MAHONEY ROAD has been racing against good company at Oaklawn.
He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but believe he’ll be flying late and can
roll by them all. 3-HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC is hard to gauge. He had two terrific
races at Canterbury, generating some of the highest speed figures of any in
here, but the races were against Minnesota breds, he hasn’t raced since August,
and there is plenty of other speed in here. 4-SECESSION is an interesting
runner. He’s taking a huge jump in class after getting claimed from last but he
simply crushed the field in that last race and he was claimed from one
torrid trainer by another.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
There seems to be three logical contenders in this race.
I went with 7-SOVIET STANDARD. He’s making his third start of the meet and
should finally be at the top of his game. He does seem like the only one of the
three that can close a bit. Might run down tiring speed. 5-WEST ISLAND is fresh
off a good second-place finish. However, he tired late in his recent races and
the longer distance of this race could work against him. 2-CHARLIE LIGHTNING drops
in class. Interestingly, he was claimed at Tampa two starts back, ran one race
for that new barn, and then transferred to this group despite the other barn
having a presence at this meet. Especially don’t like only one workout in the
two months since his most recent race.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
The pace of this race should set up well for 6-ROCKET
HOTSHOT. The winner of last takes on a bit tougher in this spot but his barn is
on fire and his rider has been riding extremely well. The speed figures for
this runner are incredibly consistent and they rate among the highest of any in
here. If the contested pace does develop, he should have dead late. 2-WICKED SURPRISE
takes a much-needed drop in class. He showed little at Gulfstream over the
winter and was majorly outclassed in his first start of the year but he has
traditionally done well on this racetrack and with the drop to the right level,
he figures to wake up big time. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE enjoys good speed and
comes off a wire-to-wire victory. However, this 11-year-old is taking on a
somewhat tougher group today and many of his rivals are also front-running
types. Not sure he’ll be able to hold off the other speed in the early stages
of the race and still have enough left to hold off top pick late.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Great race. Almost every runner has a legitimate chance
to win this. But have to go with the hot hand. 3-RICHIESONAROLL is fresh off a
victory over similar runners. He was claimed for $12,500 last June and since
then has been on quite a roll. He finished second in his first two starts for
this barn and then won three of his next four, losing only in a Grade 3 stakes
at Keeneland. He’s capable of winning on or off the pace and is likely to be
tough either way. 2-SHACKLEFORD STRONG figures prominently. He’s another former
low-level claimer, he was running in $6250 claimers a year ago, that has gone
on to become an accomplished runner. He’s been victorious in seven of his 11
local races, including last. 4-CORTESE isn’t quite as accomplished as the top
pair but he possesses a strong closing move and could easily be a late factor.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Don’t really “like” 6-PALACE MAGIC but she does look like
the only real closer in a field featuring an abundance of early speed. The drop
in class is a great help. Might be able to surprise. 3-PLAY TWENTY can win
right back, though she’s certainly no lock. She was able to wire the field in
last, relatively unchallenged the entire race. However, this field is
overflowing with early speed and some, although not in good form, appear to be
quicker than she and she has not done well when she doesn’t get the lead
quickly. Not sure what to make of 1-AVARSARALA. Last year she was racing
competitively in allowance fields and now, after a year-long layoff, she’s in
the basement. Her works give away little. If she has anything left, she’s the
quickest of these, but she might be just a shadow of her former self.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
On paper, it would appear that 4-IZEONDEC is the one to
beat. However, he has a severe case of “seconditis”. I really can’t find anyone
that seems capable of beating him but can’t give a strong recommendation to bet
him to win. A place bet might be safer. 8-BRODY’S FLY takes on a bit easier and
takes blinkers off. He’s one of the few in here seemingly capable of making a
late move.7-STOLICH could be worth a look. He’s certainly not quick but his one
and only win came the last time he was stretched out from a sprint to a route.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Not sure this race will stay on the lawn but figure 10-RAVIN’S
TOWN will be tough on either surface. He displayed good speed in both of his
races, both on dirt. He appeared to be well on his way to victory in his last
start but got passed late. Still, he was well clear of the rest of the field.
Might hold them all safe today. 8-MIDTERM finished a distant third in his first
start of the meet. He was three lengths behind Ravin’s Town at the finish,
though over five lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher. He’s been gelded
since that race and adds blinkers for this. We know he’ll be competitive on
dirt and his barn’s turf success and his own pedigree suggests that he’ll do
every bit as well on the lawn. 1-LICENSE TO STEAL makes his debut. Debut runners
from his barn don’t win at a high percentage but the barn does win with about
26% turf sprinters.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
1-MON AMIE FUZZIE drops. He finished second by a head the
only time he raced at the $5k claiming level. He should have dead aim late. Not
in love with 3-VIOLENT GIGI but he has been meeting a bit tougher while racing
in Arkansas. He finished third the last time he raced here in August. Might be
able to do at least as well today. 4-CHRISTMAS PRESENT just finished second.
Think he’s better going long but that second-place finish was at this distance.
5-CARL G has been in great form at Turfway on synthetic but his most recent
form on dirt wasn’t nearly as good.8-PINBALLER meets possibly his easiest field
ever. He backed up badly in his last three races but could finish with a little
more in reserve in this easier field.