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Fri May 17th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
#12 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD comes into this race off a full EX - EXCUSE last month at KEE and holds form to run back to on the main track. The early pace should be honest with the bookend runners #1 BEAR RIVER and #14 SILVER HALO jumping in as MTO to set up SUGAR GRAY LEONARD one that has similar form (if not subtly stronger) than ML favorite, #10 DEMOLITION DUKE.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
#7 QUARRYMAN looks live in this spot both as an individual and for the connections this meet. He has enough tactical speed to sit off pacesetters, #6 MAUNA KEA BOUND and SOUND DOCTRINE (potentially even #1 FAMILY FACTOR and #2 WRITE OFF JERRY) to take first run on that group and the jump on the closers #4 MORE THAN FIVE and #5 SMOOTHDINI.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Hawthorne "fan favorites" #7 GUN RUSH (and A. Centeno) invade CD and a threat in this race. He must overcome the pace complexion, in what could be a bigger test than the added ground. Rivals #1 SUPER CURIOSO and #5 P H FACTOR (and perhaps #8 BORN FLAWLESS stretching out) bring in early speed, though they will not beat GUN RUSH at his game.
The biggest threat #6 HOODLUM as he should stalk that first flight and look for first run. A similar trip could fall to #3 ON A SPREE one that is weaker of the two in that role and based on the ML could be shorter of that pair.
#2 NEPAL UP comes from further off the pace though should have the higher SpeedRate and "Sun" Contention to target with his late run/Q4 Square.
Santa Anita Race 1
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#6 BRING HIM HOME could catch the right group returning to the claiming level and route distance second of this cycle. The early pace should be honest with some making the distance change paired with #3 LUTHER PASS the projected controlling speed. #5 SCORPION SHOT is one of those on the distance change and coming off an EX_EXCUSE in their debut. The BTL effort from #2 BIG DRINKER last out would make them a player right back though had to do a lot of running (HARD) for the outcome.
Santa Anita Race 4
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Trip will be key for #3 BARSABAS one that has struggled on that front including last month compromised with the trip from start to finish and still showing run. He comes into this race with form that does not "jump off the page" and could jump up today at a big number. The same "trip" factors come into play for #6 KIMMER with a similar runstyle for today's race shape though has races that fit here as a contender on their best day paired with racing luck.