Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Preakness got a whole lot more interesting with the news of the scratch of Muth earlier this week as I figured he was an absolute lock to win this race. With Muth out, here's my horse by horse thoughts for the Preakness.

1-Mugatu: He was fifth in the Blue Grass, closing later than Sierra Leone. In the Preakness I don't expect him to get enough pace to chase to truly contend.

2-Uncle Heavy: An off track will move Uncle Heavy up quite a bit as he grabbed back to back wins over sealed tracks. He may not be fast enough though as the field he beat in the Withers didn't show much after that race.

3-Catching Freedom: He was one of the horses I had in the mix for the Derby and I thought he ran a solid race. This is a quick return though but he is also an every other race type of horse which could mean that he's sitting on a big one in here. He scares me but with Muth out he will likely be the second choice.

5-Mystik Dan: He ran the race of his life in the Derby and needed a perfect ride by Brian Hernandez to win. Can he win back, of course, but he will provide little value and the last time he was asked to return quickly was the worst race of his career.

6-Seize the Grey: He seems to be gradually improving and comes in off a fine victory in the Pat Day Mile. The problem is with that race being on Derby Day, he's in the same boat as others and being asked to make the quick return.

7-Just Steel: He was a part of the fast and contested pace that fell apart in the Derby but I do think the switch in the saddle to the more experienced Rosario will be a plus. I'm just not sure he can wheel back this quickly and expect a big effort.

8-Tuscan Gold: I like everything about him. He is lightly raced, has improved with each start, and comes in fresh. His running style should put him in the mix early and the distance should be no problem for him.

9-Imagination: The "other Baffert" is also a very talented racehorse. He has every chance to win this race and has enough speed to clear from the outside. He's never been worse than second on his career and figures to be the third choice at the windows.

I'm going to take Tuscan Gold on top in here as I think he gets a perfect tracking trip. He ran a good third behind Catching Freedom at this distance in the Louisiana Derby and is training easily and consistently into this race. Imagination looks to be the pace of the race and that can be dangerous if no others go. With only 8 in here, he could easily steal it. Mystik Dan is the Derby Champ. I liked him in the Derby and feel he can contend once again. It's just a lot to ask of a racehorse to run another huge race just two weeks after the biggest race of his life. Let's  see how he handles things on Saturday.