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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat May 18th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Midnight Blue Note - 5/2 1 Where'd the Day Go - 8/5 2 Irish Valor - 5/1

Potential for the Hugo Rodriguez runners to go 1-2 in the opener in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. Gave the nod to 5-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE as he has faced a bit tougher company and should get a good tracking trip. 1-WHERE'D THE DAY GO may have the pace advantage as he comes off a nice victory in his last as he has run a pair of solid races on the meet. 2-IRISH VALOR may have needed that last start as he was coming off the layoff but he figures to show more in here as he has never missed the board in 11 lifetime starts at this distance.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Sweet Smila - 5/1 5 Peggy's Way - 9/5 2 Tribest [ARG] - 7/2

It's a good sign that jockey Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. is in to ride the Robertson runners as they all appear to be live. 7-SWEET SMILA is the first of those on the card as she gets Lasix for the first time. She ran a good second on debut last summer and comes in off a good workout pattern leading into this spot. 5-PEGGY'S WAY ran well at this level in her last and figures to take a good amount of action. She should be forwardly placed once again but we will see how she handles things if Sweet Smile beats her to the lead. 2-TRIBEST (ARG) is overdue for the maiden score but will benefit if the top two choices duke it out on the front end. She ran on late in her last couple and looks to benefit from the added 16th today.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 High Headed - 3/1 7 Cool and Collected - 5/2 5 Papa Yo - 5/1

With weather to dictate whether or not this race remains on the grass, I think 8-HIGH HEADED is the best horse in her on either surface. After a maiden breaker on the poly, he chased while wide at the one turn mile at Churchill in his last. There is very little along the lines of early pace in here as he could clear from the outside draw. 7-COOL AND COLLECTED looks to be turf only although he has worked well on the main track leading toward his return. He also should be forwardly placed as he faces a bit easier compared to what he saw last summer. 5-PAPA YO is another that looks to be good on turf or dirt as he drops back down in class after facing tougher in his first off the claim last out. He will likely need some pace to chase as he figures to settle back early and run on late.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Miss Mikos - 9/5 7 Irish Spark - 3/1 1 Lions Law - 12/1

This is the second of the Robertson runners that Pedroza is in to ride as 3-MISS MIKOS figures to be a factor in her second start of the year. She chased and ran on late in her last as that was her first start with the addition of Lasix. She has worked well toward her return and figures to take some action in here. 7-IRISH SPARK debuted in the mud at Oaklawn against a tough bunch. She finds things easier in her today as she gets a fast track return. Don't be surprised if you see a bit more early pace from her in this spot. 1-LIONS LAW ran a good race at this level in her last as she showed speed and battled to the wire. She figures to be sent from the inside once again as she looks to continue to improve off that last effort.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Whatdoyouthinkmark - 9/2 4 Twirling Roses - 8/1 1 Simple Logic - 7/2

A really intriguing turf sprint with some unknowns in this field. Going to give a look to 6-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK as he makes his first start on the grass as well as his first start as a three-year-old. He was very impressive in his debut last summer in Minnesota but bounced as the heavy choice against stakes runners in his second start out. He looks to be training very well toward this race as the time to mature has to be beneficial. 4-TWIRLING ROSES may get overlooked a bit in here but he has some turf starts that make him a player in this spot. If there is a contested pace upfront early, things may set up nicely for his closing kick. 1-SIMPLE LOGIC always seems to be right there on the grass but he has only the one turf win with eight runner-up efforts. He has sprinted in the past on the grass as he figures to sit back and close in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Prince Is My Boy - 9/2 6 Skylane - 3/1 3 Late Blacksmith - 8/1

Two turn maiden claimers as experience at the distance could be the key. Looking to 5-PRINCE IS MY BOY as he comes out of some route races at Oaklawn. He wasn't helped by the short stretch two turn miles there but the long stretch should play right into his hands. 6-SKYLANE has tactical speed as has faced slightly tougher in Tampa around two turns and has held his own. He is overdue for the maiden score but has found the board in 7 of 10 starts and should be in the mix once again. 3-LATE BLACKSMITH is the one that stretches out and is worth a look as he improved greatly in his last. He will need to repeat that performance to contend in here but there is potential for him to cruise along on the front end.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
10 Last Run - 4/1 3 Spinning Heart - 10/1 12 Even the Wind - 9/2

In what looks to be a wide open race, almost any of these are in with a shot. Based on the turf experience alone, I'll look to 10-LAST RUN as he has run well against some tough company at Tampa in his last two. His figures to rate in the second flight early as it looks like he will have more than enough pace to chase. 3-SPINNING HEART is one who has held his own in three turf starts but may prefer a course more on the firm end. He has speed and should be a part of the early pace in this race. 12-EVEN THE WIND draws outside but looks to have enough tactical speed to find decent early position. He's knocking on the door for that first lifetime victory and could find it in this spot.