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Sun May 19th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
2-GO STORMIN GIRL just missed in last after winning her
previous start. She had taken a small late lead in that last race but got
nailed at the wire, losing by a head. She ran well in all her races this meet.
Guessing that streak will continue. 6-TAP N TWINE led most of last, often under
pressure, but came up just a little short and was passed by a pair of runners,
including top pick. However, that race was at six furlongs and she’s cutting
back in distance for this. Might have enough left to last on the lead. 4-MISS
WINDY SLEW drops in class and turns back in distance. She displayed good route
speed in her last start but simply ran out of gas. Might stay competitive
longer in this shorter, easier race.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:08 PM CST
1-HOPPIN JOHN drops to a new low. He had one good race at
Oaklawn compared to two poor efforts but those dull races came on off tracks.
No matter what, he should be tough versus this easier company but prefer his
chances if the track surface is fast. 6-GETTING PAID is probably the one to
beat. He finished second when dropped to this level in last and got claimed by
a trainer that does well with first-time claims. 4-BE LUCKY is probably the
quickest of these. But he stopped badly in last and the claim that was placed
on him was voided. Now he drops again. Hard to gauge.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:36 PM CST
3-MIDNIGHT’S GIRL beat only one in last but she was
racing for the first time since January and, for some reason they ran her in
allowance company. Drops sharply. Has speed to spare. Will have to be caught. 5-SILKY
WARRIOR is another seeking an easier spot. She has shown speed at times but
seems to be at her best when coming from off the pace and the pace of this race
should suit her fine. 2-EMITYAAZ could be leading the second tier. She tired
late in last but could show more sustained run in her third start of the meet. 1-CAIRO
SUMMER flew late in last to just miss. A similar effort to that today will put
her squarely in the hunt.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:04 PM CST
Good betting race. Should be no heavy favorite or huge
longshots in this one. Leaning to 2-CASCADE CRUISER. This recent grad takes on
far more experienced rivals but I like the way he has been progressing and
especially like the way he finished in last, his first race with blinkers. 6-HARD
TO FATHOM could give this trainer his first career win. This gelding narrow
lost last, a good claimer at Oaklawn, and he generated the highest recent speed
figure of any in here in that loss. Gets a red hot rider as pilot. Might get it
done. 5-HERCULES loves to win, he already scored three times this year, but his
recent wins have all been in low-level claimers. However, his speed figures suggest
he fits well with these. Certainly respect the connections of 4-EPIC KNIGHT but
he’s apparently never even had a work on dirt. He will be adding blinkers for
his local debut.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:32 PM CST
7-DI’S SURPRISE tired badly fighting for the lead in her
lone start and she’s one of many in here with early speed but believe we’ll see
a better effort today. She races for the top barn and they often win with
second-time starters. Plus, with a 32% turf sprint winning average, you have to
figure they’ll have this filly ready to rock. 4-HA HA GLORIA certainly figures
to be the one to beat. She finished second in last, a turf sprint at Santa
Anita. However, she raced for different connections, she hasn’t run since
October, and her barn’s runners often need a race. She’s a 5-year-old making
only her second third start, one race in each of the last two years, so you
have to figure she has some issues. 10-SURPRISE ME AGAIN wouldn’t be a major
surprise. She makes her debut for one of the top trainers and she gets the top
jock in her irons. Runners from her barn aren’t pushed to win their debut but
that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Don’t overlook.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
5-OEUVRE, defending champ of the Third Chance, seems
likely to repeat. She might have been a bit outclassed in the Grade 3 Giants
Causeway at Keeneland in last but her dull effort might also be attributed to
racing without Lasix. But she will be able to utilize it again today since this
race is a handicap, not a stakes race. She has only lost two of her nine races
at Hawthorne and none since racing for this barn. Probably worth the short
price. 2-PURR SEA is the only one that has defeated top pick locally, which she
did in a couple stakes back in 2021. She took nearly a year off from October
2022 until 2023 and raced herself into shape when she returned. Won her last at
Turfway but that race was three months ago. Still, she seems to be the best
speed. Might try to wire them. 7-WHITE LIES was favored in her first start of
the year but she had some early trouble that took her out of her game. But at
least it gave her a recent race. Should be dead fit and hoping for a better
trip this time.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Interesting race. Half the connections are probably
wishing this race would get moved to the main track while the other half wants
it to remain on turf. We were off the turf on Saturday but expecting the course
to dry out with the windy and warm temps. Believe the turf votes will win this
one since there is little precipitation in the forecast. 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY is
undoubtedly the one they have to beat on the lawn. This multiple stakes winner races
for the first time this year and didn’t show much in 2023 but he’d been racing
in graded stakes. He won’t be close early but this winner of over $660000 will
be flying late. 2-PROTONIC POWER probably wouldn’t be considered a turf pro but
he does have a turn win, scored here, to his credit. Fresh off a third-place
stakes finish at Fonner, he is one of the few in here that has speed figures somewhat
close to those of top choice. However, if this race did come off the lawn, his
chances would seem to improve dramatically. Nine-year-old 1-READTHECLIFFNOTES
has had some decent efforts on the lawn without winning. However, he’s as tough
as the come on dirt. He’s been victorious in 10 of 19 on dirt, including
winning both his starts on off tracks. 8-NOVGORAD THE GREAT is an interesting
runner. He’s the only “real” speed in the race. He never won on turf but he
could build an unsurmountable lead on either surface and never look back.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:56 PM CST
5-SLAVA UKRAINI tends to tire but he is probably the
quickest member of this field and he’s one of a few in here dropping to the
lowest level of his career. 7-LAKE MILLS, another dropper, hasn’t won for a
couple years but he has finished third in five of his last seven starts. He’s
another dropper that figures to be far tougher at this level. 4-HUNKA BURNIN
LOVE also drops. He’s making his first start of the year. His rider is having a
great meet and his barn is winning here at a 25% rate but this 10-year-old has
had only a couple 2024 works and the barn wins with only about 4% of runners
coming off similar layoffs.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 6:24 PM CST
6-GET THE CANDY might be the best of the speed. She’s had
considerable success on turf, including in turf sprints. She’s had only limited
works since her last race in February but have to figure she’ll be ready off
the brief layoff. 2-DOC’S SEVEN is worth another look. She’s had only two turf races,
both sprints, and finished in the money in both. She’s been racing at Oaklawn
with some success. Decent current form and fitness might imply that she holds
the edge. 10-MOVE IT BABY could get the perfect stalking trip. She was a sharp
winner in her last in Louisiana and generated the highest recent speed figures
of any in here but she’s another with questionable workouts. 11-RAMBERT, with
four wins at the distance, makes her first start of the year and her first
after getting claimed by this barn. But, like the top pair, her workout pattern
leaves a lot to be desired. Will she be ready?