Handicapper Tips & Picks

Race 6:  2 - 5 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,5 / 1,2,7,8 / 3,4,5,6,7,8 / 6,11   ($48)

The Third Chance Stakes, named after a real nice Ill-bred., features ladies sprinting on the dirt. The prohibitive favorite will be the talented #5 Oeuvre, who’s won over $800k on dirt and turf facing nice open company foes. But, I have two small concerns with her today. 1) She’s better on turf 2) She’s been running quite often lately and I think her best days may be behind her at this juncture. That being said, she’ll be tough here….but I’m going with an upset with the speedy #2 Purr Sea (4-1) for Boyce. She has plenty of nice races (albeit slower than Oeuvre) and figures to be loose on the lead if she breaks. Maybe today is her day to shine…pop the gate and don’t look back. Just hoping the wire comes quick enough in deep stretch. 

Race 7:  8 - 2 - 7

Another speed angle I’m choosing to tip out is #8 Novogrod the Great (6-1) in this nice turf allowance. The obvious concerns are the distance and layoff. He had a very busy 5yo campaign, but for the first time in a while is well-rested. The main factor for me in choosing “Novogrod” is two-fold: 1) He’ll be on an easy lead (in theory), and 2) the favorites are vulnerable. #2 Protonic Power is the most likely winner in my mind, but is 1/10 on grass and will be running his 3rd race in 6 weeks. #7 Another Mystery wants longer and is coming off a layoff. 

Race 8:  4 - 5 - 7

Do I fully trust my top choice #4 Hunka Burning Love (3-1), a 10yr. off a layoff? Absolutely not….but he has two works since the layoff and towers over the field from a class perspective. If he shows his usual speed, he’ll have a big shot in the lane. This is a BIG SPREAD race for me horizontally, so use as many as your budget allows in the Pick 4.

Race 9:  6 - 11 - 7

In a tricky finale for claimers sprinting on the turf, #6 Get the Candy (7-2), a NY-bred for Vanden Berg, is attempting to live up to her name. She’s been involved in very fast, difficult races at Gulfstream over the winter where they fly early. This crew is much easier, and if she’s right, may run them off their feet from the start. I suppose the drop could be a concern, but maybe the trainer is simply placing her where she belongs.