Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-GO STORMIN GIRL just missed in last after winning her previous start. She had taken a small late lead in that last race but got nailed at the wire, losing by a head. She ran well in all her races this meet. Guessing that streak will continue. 6-TAP N TWINE led most of last, often under pressure, but came up just a little short and was passed by a pair of runners, including top pick. However, that race was at six furlongs and she’s cutting back in distance for this. Might have enough left to last on the lead. 4-MISS WINDY SLEW drops in class and turns back in distance. She displayed good route speed in her last start but simply ran out of gas. Might stay competitive longer in this shorter, easier race.

1-HOPPIN JOHN drops to a new low. He had one good race at Oaklawn compared to two poor efforts but those dull races came on off tracks. No matter what, he should be tough versus this easier company but prefer his chances if the track surface is fast. 6-GETTING PAID is probably the one to beat. He finished second when dropped to this level in last and got claimed by a trainer that does well with first-time claims. 4-BE LUCKY is probably the quickest of these. But he stopped badly in last and the claim that was placed on him was voided. Now he drops again. Hard to gauge. 

3-MIDNIGHT’S GIRL beat only one in last but she was racing for the first time since January and, for some reason they ran her in allowance company. Drops sharply. Has speed to spare. Will have to be caught. 5-SILKY WARRIOR is another seeking an easier spot. She has shown speed at times but seems to be at her best when coming from off the pace and the pace of this race should suit her fine. 2-EMITYAAZ could be leading the second tier. She tired late in last but could show more sustained run in her third start of the meet. 1-CAIRO SUMMER flew late in last to just miss. A similar effort to that today will put her squarely in the hunt.

Good betting race. Should be no heavy favorite or huge longshots in this one. Leaning to 2-CASCADE CRUISER. This recent grad takes on far more experienced rivals but I like the way he has been progressing and especially like the way he finished in last, his first race with blinkers. 6-HARD TO FATHOM could give this trainer his first career win. This gelding narrow lost last, a good claimer at Oaklawn, and he generated the highest recent speed figure of any in here in that loss. Gets a red hot rider as pilot. Might get it done. 5-HERCULES loves to win, he already scored three times this year, but his recent wins have all been in low-level claimers. However, his speed figures suggest he fits well with these. Certainly respect the connections of 4-EPIC KNIGHT but he’s apparently never even had a work on dirt. He will be adding blinkers for his local debut. 

7-DI’S SURPRISE tired badly fighting for the lead in her lone start and she’s one of many in here with early speed but believe we’ll see a better effort today. She races for the top barn and they often win with second-time starters. Plus, with a 32% turf sprint winning average, you have to figure they’ll have this filly ready to rock. 4-HA HA GLORIA certainly figures to be the one to beat. She finished second in last, a turf sprint at Santa Anita. However, she raced for different connections, she hasn’t run since October, and her barn’s runners often need a race. She’s a 5-year-old making only her second third start, one race in each of the last two years, so you have to figure she has some issues. 10-SURPRISE ME AGAIN wouldn’t be a major surprise. She makes her debut for one of the top trainers and she gets the top jock in her irons. Runners from her barn aren’t pushed to win their debut but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Don’t overlook.

5-OEUVRE, defending champ of the Third Chance, seems likely to repeat. She might have been a bit outclassed in the Grade 3 Giants Causeway at Keeneland in last but her dull effort might also be attributed to racing without Lasix. But she will be able to utilize it again today since this race is a handicap, not a stakes race. She has only lost two of her nine races at Hawthorne and none since racing for this barn. Probably worth the short price. 2-PURR SEA is the only one that has defeated top pick locally, which she did in a couple stakes back in 2021. She took nearly a year off from October 2022 until 2023 and raced herself into shape when she returned. Won her last at Turfway but that race was three months ago. Still, she seems to be the best speed. Might try to wire them. 7-WHITE LIES was favored in her first start of the year but she had some early trouble that took her out of her game. But at least it gave her a recent race. Should be dead fit and hoping for a better trip this time.

Interesting race. Half the connections are probably wishing this race would get moved to the main track while the other half wants it to remain on turf. We were off the turf on Saturday but expecting the course to dry out with the windy and warm temps. Believe the turf votes will win this one since there is little precipitation in the forecast. 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY is undoubtedly the one they have to beat on the lawn. This multiple stakes winner races for the first time this year and didn’t show much in 2023 but he’d been racing in graded stakes. He won’t be close early but this winner of over $660000 will be flying late. 2-PROTONIC POWER probably wouldn’t be considered a turf pro but he does have a turn win, scored here, to his credit. Fresh off a third-place stakes finish at Fonner, he is one of the few in here that has speed figures somewhat close to those of top choice. However, if this race did come off the lawn, his chances would seem to improve dramatically. Nine-year-old 1-READTHECLIFFNOTES has had some decent efforts on the lawn without winning. However, he’s as tough as the come on dirt. He’s been victorious in 10 of 19 on dirt, including winning both his starts on off tracks. 8-NOVGORAD THE GREAT is an interesting runner. He’s the only “real” speed in the race. He never won on turf but he could build an unsurmountable lead on either surface and never look back.

5-SLAVA UKRAINI tends to tire but he is probably the quickest member of this field and he’s one of a few in here dropping to the lowest level of his career. 7-LAKE MILLS, another dropper, hasn’t won for a couple years but he has finished third in five of his last seven starts. He’s another dropper that figures to be far tougher at this level. 4-HUNKA BURNIN LOVE also drops. He’s making his first start of the year. His rider is having a great meet and his barn is winning here at a 25% rate but this 10-year-old has had only a couple 2024 works and the barn wins with only about 4% of runners coming off similar layoffs.

6-GET THE CANDY might be the best of the speed. She’s had considerable success on turf, including in turf sprints. She’s had only limited works since her last race in February but have to figure she’ll be ready off the brief layoff. 2-DOC’S SEVEN is worth another look. She’s had only two turf races, both sprints, and finished in the money in both. She’s been racing at Oaklawn with some success. Decent current form and fitness might imply that she holds the edge. 10-MOVE IT BABY could get the perfect stalking trip. She was a sharp winner in her last in Louisiana and generated the highest recent speed figures of any in here but she’s another with questionable workouts. 11-RAMBERT, with four wins at the distance, makes her first start of the year and her first after getting claimed by this barn. But, like the top pair, her workout pattern leaves a lot to be desired. Will she be ready?