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Thu May 23rd, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 4:00 PM CST
#1 MALAWNIA moves up on the class drop naturally in this spot. The move comes with intent as she was entered under similar conditions at KEE back on 4/13 unable to participate (vet) lands here with intent for this level and N2 claiming condition.
The change in class also comes into play for #7 LADAN; one that has struggled to find where she fits throughout her career. She moved up to compete with the belated change to MCL company and coming off an EX - EXCUSE last month on the KEE turf can step up off that race here.
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
#5 YES DAY could be flying under the radar for the connections and recent running lines/finishing positions. Class wise she fits t this level and upside in her current cycle from the higher conditions races to run here first time in claiming company. She has held her form and figures since the juvenile season, though has not shown the progression required to step up in allowance/stakes company she has been in as of late and this move comes at the right time and place.
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 5:56 PM CST
This race remaining as designed, #4 MRS. ASTOR is logical as the favorite in this race. The distance change comes back into play for this third start back off the layoff. The form cycle into this event is progressive following BTL effort at the mile distance at SA and place finish last out at KEE. Value follows #3 CALL ME TONI of the B. Hughes pair coming off a BTL effort under similar conditions last out.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Foley has a solid pair in this race despite the two returning from layoffs. #1 SPARKLE OF HOPE turned in a competitive race with legit TROUBLE+ coming off a similar long layoff and under similar claiming conditions last June giving her the edge over stablemate #6 WILLOW BEND.
#5 LITTLE SISTER SUE must find a trip (and hold value) with her run from off the pace with that said, the drop is the right move and can IMPROVE off the starter last month at KEE. In addition, she turned in a solid effort under similar conditions here last September, a race with a higher par than today making MOVE through TRAFFIC after the SLOG in the 4th place result.