Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 1 Calicojack Hanover 4 Mikron 7 Lous World

T 9 Willowtime 5 Convoy Hall 6 Stony Burke

P 5 It’s a Love Thing 4 Pass Line 8 Sorcha Seelster

P 8 Price Control 3 Chalk Hanover 7 Premier First Star

P 2 Shes Got it All 4 Western Wish 9 Ima Doll

T 8 Griff 2 What About Elmo 5 Ways N Means

P 5 The Dragon Reborn 10 Wikipedia 3 Storm Shadow

P 7 Command 5 Stone Carver 10 Poseidon Seelster

P 2 Funtime Bayama 6 Nijinsky 8 Stonebridge Thrill

P 7 Taurasi 3 Emmetts Buddy 4 Saulsbrook Victor

P 4 Wheels On Fire 2 Respect Our Flag 1 Frankie Frankie

P 7 Redwood Hanover 1 Whatchulookin At 4 Blue Hunt

#1 MAQAMAT comes into this race first off the claim for Vanden Berg in form and well placed looking for the first win this season. He was claimed last month for the $4k tag and stepped up to compete here. The rise is less of a concern keying off a BTL effort back on 4/13 under similar conditions to today’s event.

The race shape should also set up for his runstyle. Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be contentious with the three Quad I runners including morning line favorite’s #3 BREAKING NEWS and #6 RIVZONAROLL joined by #5 LUCKY SHOT. With the scratch of MAQAMAT (racing on Sunday) will look for LUCKY SHOT to be the "speed of the speed" and a shot with them in that role (hoping they roll) as the higher of the Q1 trio and potentially longer odds with #4 TIME HEIST and #7 MON AMI FUZZIE as the Q4 Squares. 

#4 JOE THE TAILOR has the edge on recency and sprint form over the returning #6 TAHOE RUN though those two stand out in this field heads and horsetails among the others. On his best day, #9 CYCLONE ATTACK could be right there and does hold form over the turf sprinting, an edge on the other two at this point, though those two should have no issues with the surface/distance given today’s group. 

#6 STAND BY YOU likely needed the start last month coming off the layoff and the class DROP she finds here as well. The race par was similar today with the purse lower and the horses that came back held their form with a couple finishing strong place outcome and another with an excuse, holding form all around. She projects to move up like the others from that group and with the fitness under her belt from that WIDE trip.

Former Catalano trainee, #8 MADELYN BELLE has proven herself at this level this season and a threat to triple threat this season. Looking at the Plot, she could present a clear pace advantage (#1 ADIVA chasing) on the front end. In terms of form cycle, there were some concerns on 4/13 with some regression after the big effort to win opening day (3/23) though handed the field pairing numbers though is a positive she has been given the 42-day recovery back today.

#5 STYLE creates her own adversity with the pattern of SLOG though is in form and a positive the new connections will step back up off the claim. Her numbers overall sit in line with ADIVA and while she does not hold the same tactical (Q1) speed, she can be compensated on the board. 

#5 TOP LOOK gets top billing here and should be in the right spot to get the win for both horse and trainer. She comes into this race with current and consistent form with figures on par. Her trip can be dictated by D. Centeno as she holds versatility and not a need the lead type something that could come into play with #7 HIP HOP EMMY and #8 HEARY OF HANISCH in this field and those two could battle for the early lead and joined by some others.

The contention could assist #3 HOLY IMAGE one that is a longer shot to win though comes into this race with form and progressive form this season and can pick up horses for a minor share. #1 FANCY HILL is worth a mention given the dominant effort closing out 2023 with the maiden win. That race jumped up from the others as she jumped off the screen and if that is a representation of who she is, she can be in the mix as well.

#6 GIANNO makes some changes for this race, changes that have been in the cards in the past to come together here. In terms of class, they were entered for the MCL tag before the initial start and between the two starts here this season. One of those was back on 5/5 under similar conditions to today, a scratch when those races were taken off the turf and the connections scratching from a similar MCL event earlier this month at HS Indy to run here instead.

It is interesting that C. Ulloa picks up the call as Cohen was named on GIANNO on 5/5 and lands on FTS #8 CUPID’S WAR instead. This one has some gaps in the works though some upbeat moves at the same time. The works are not as snappy for #3 I O FEDRO though has plenty of fitness in the series and in capable hands for today’s conditions.

In terms of the more experienced types, #9 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has recorded some of the higher figures and takes the class drop for the first time to suggest intent. Today’s par is just slightly lower than their prior grass starts and with that noted they must step up. #4 TEMPLE FOOL moved up with the class drop with the races coming off the TURF last out and should move up on the grass based on their physicality and the lone grass sprint start last summer. 

While not the “most likely” winner #4 JULYNNE has a look showing up here on this circuit and overall upside to transfer in this field. She will make the change to HAW though was entered a couple of times here last season unable to get into a race. Her debut was eye-catching earning a follow and off that race she continued to improve number wise in the sophomore season. Keying off those numbers, those figures were not far off some of her main rivals in this group. She will make the change to the route distance, though as good a time as many showing progress in this third start off the layoff and some confidence off the recent win.  

#1 VISIONISTA is capable of rebounding and her effort under similar conditions on 4/13 sits in line with #5 CALISUE coming back from her place finish on 5/5 and looking to hold her form and compete at this level. Trip wise VISIONISTA could benefit from the race shape whereas CALISUE could find contention with #3 BLESSED ANNA (one that steps up and does not hold an edge as the projected favorite) and #7 IZZY’S MONSTER in this field. 

#10 WOODCOCK FLIGHT moves up off their current form and a class edge exiting the recent KY events along with the OP allowance. Number wise they have remained consistent and with efforts that should transfer naturally on this circuit. Cohen landing here is notable picking up live mounts and riding well this meet.

Cohen was also named aboard #1 DAPPER DUDE when they were entered and scratched with the races moved to the main track last week. Overall DUDE moves up on the TURF and should present value in this full field off the recent running lines and finishing positions. His current form coming into this race is a bit stronger than what may appear keying off the company lines in the FG allowance races and subtle trips on this circuit while waiting to get back to the TURF.

Returning from the FG turf allowance races #6 BATTLE SCARS has the edge over #5 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE as they show up on this circuit. Odds wise they could be closer come post time and both must step up while C’EST could present a move forward second off the long layoff with prior turf efforts on par for this event; and BATTLE one that has some consistency though often that comes in the form as coming up short on the win end without excuse. 

This race starts with analyzing #5 SKY MASTER the new face showing up on this circuit and taking a massive class drop in the process. His debut earned one if not the highest recorded figure in this field and set the pace staying on as the BOS before tiring and drifting (NO_FINISH, NO_LINE) late. The second start could be given a pass as they wheeled right back and took a big step up in class claimed from the debut and first start for Mason. The barn does take a big drop, a move that does not inspire much confidence and seems they are willing to get out and move on from this one.

SKY MASTER showing the early speed from the debut could make things tougher on some of the other front runners in this field including #4 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD as shown with those two clear on the Plot. That potential scenario for the two could set up the stalking “Squares” to try and capitalize on the pace scenario for an upset.

#7 MY TENNIS SHOES has been at this level this season and while he has had some issues at the break has shown run in spots and can be upgraded from those efforts and with A. Centeno aboard. Going back to the FG season he recorded a BTL place finish in February and B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level on 3/2. While analysis and preference to MY TENNIS SHOES, a case can be made for all of those “Square” runners if the strategy is to take on and play against SKY MASTER and SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD.

A really competitive bunch kicks off a really good Saturday card. Pace makes the race as 6-RIVZONAROLL should be very tough in this spot. He takes a class drop but also runs for the higher Illinois-bred claiming tag. He should be able to clear and never look back. 4-TIME HEIST doesn't have the best way of going but he always tries hard. He needs some pace to chase as he figures to settle and close with a rush. 1-MAQAMAT is much like Time Heist for running style as he runs for the new barn today. Let's see if he can save ground the entire way and close late. 

This appears to be a two horse race, regardless of if it is on turf or dirt. Going to 6-TAHOE RUN as his best races have come over this track. He has never gone this distance but has a style that will put him into contention early as he should be able to clear late. 4-JOE THE TAILOR just missed at this level on the main track in his last. He also has speed and could easily run around 1-2 with Tahoe Run in here. On grass, 9-CYCLONE ATTACK is worth a look as Childers runners always seem to step up in turf sprints. He has tactical speed and looks ready for his first start of the meet.

Much like the opener, Rivelli looks to have the pace of the race as he sends out 8-MADELYN BELLE in here. She has won both starts on the meet and may go unchallenged early. If she can clear, it may be all over. 6-STAND BY YOU is another live Catalano runner in consecutive races. She will need a contested pace to chase but figures to rally in the lane. 1-ADIVA has tactical speed as she comes off a successful Oaklawn meet. She was probably in too tough last out but the drop puts her in the mix in here.

Rarely do I lay multiple horses at the same odds but I felt similar about both 3 I O FEDRO and 8 CUPIDS WAR. I will give the nod to the Block firster as his horses always look solid on the turf and this one has worked very well toward the debut. Lasix first out helps and let's get a good look at her in the paddock. 9-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has had turf success against better company and looks to be knocking on the door. I think he probably rates mid pack early but should come running in the lane. 8-CUPIDS WAR also debuts with Lasix as he has some strong works coming into here. He has stretched out in recent works as well as stamina should be no issue.

Stepping up off a good win last out, 3-BLESSED ANNA looks to get a very similar trip to her last out. There's not much pace in this race as she has the potential to get a perfect stalking trip once again. 7-IZZY'S MONSTER has been right there in her last couple and also runs protected before the start series kicks off. She also shouldn't be too far back early as he late kick will put her right there at the wire. 4-JULYNNE has been in solid form her entire career as she steps up today. Let's see how she handles two turns and she could show a bit of early speed in here.

Not getting overly creative here as the top two look to be standouts. 6-BATTLE SCAR has been good on the turf throughout his career as he comes in off a string of solid races in New Orleans this winter. He has since worked well toward his return and appears to get enough pace to chase. 10-WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE) comes in from Kentucky for this spot as he has some big turf races. He did also run a respectable race in the slop at Keeneland two back so don't dismiss him if the rain hits. 5-C'EST MAGNIFIQUE has raced solely on turf as he could get the jump on the late closers. The mile distance should suit him nicely for a barn that is off to a good start.

With the turn back in distance, I expect 7-MY TENNIS SHOES to settle and rally in the lane. There is some pace along the inside, which he will need, but the price should be right. 4-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD is one of those with speed as he was claimed from a race at the same level last out. He did give way in the lane though but may show more stamina with the start under his belt. 2-GRAND FESTIVAL is another that could rate closer as he chased before giving way last out. That was one of the better speed figures on his career though as he could repeat that performance and contend late in here.

6-RIVZONAROLL-drops back in for a tag. He’s had some success in starters this year but he does figure to be much tougher when racing for a tag. 5-LUCKY SHOT looks like the main competition. He’s nearly as quick as top choice and he’s dropping to the lowest level of his career. 3-BREAKING NEWS is red hot right now. He won his last two starts and appears to be getting better with each passing start. He’ll be racing right off the early pace. Might edge by late. 4-TIME HEIST might be the best closer in the field and the pace certainly sets up well for him. 2-FIRST MASAMUNE is dangerous at a price. He finished second at over 38-1 the last time he ran at this level.

Tough little race. Seemingly strange spot for 6-TAHOE RUN. He’s been tough against open company on dirt but he also did finish second, going long, in his lone turf race. His speed figures say he’s the fastest of these but those numbers were generated on dirt. Not guaranteed that he’ll be quite as fast on turf but he is still the one they have to beat. 4-JOE THE TAILOR is lightly raced compared to most in here and he will be making his turf debut. However, he races for world-class connections who do well with 1st time turf and just as well in turf sprints. Good speed makes him a strong threat. Don’t think 1-J J’S SOLUTION can win this but he’s one of the few closers in this race and he has a good record in turf sprints. His high price could make him a valuable addition on the bottom of vertical wagers.

8-MADELYN BELLE could extend her streak to three. She’s always been tough here. She won four of her five local races and finished second, by a nose, in the other. Doesn’t seem likely to face much early competition. Can take it all the way. 6-STAND BY YOU makes her second start for this barn and her second off a lengthy layoff. She hasn’t been too effective lately but this could be the easiest field she met in a long time. 1-ADIVA didn’t show a thing in her first start for this barn but she was in far too tough. She had won her previous three starts. She’s going to be meeting an easier field than her last but not entirely sure she’s good enough for these, though her speed figures are among the highest. 5-STYLE just beat easier. She was claimed from that race by a barn that wins with about 19% of their first-time claims. She’s moving up in class but has raced competitively versus similar in the past.

5-TOP LOOK could get the trip. There’s an abundance of speed in this race, including her, but she is one that doesn’t necessarily need to early lead to run well. 8-HEART OF HANISH is one of the speedsters in this race. She finished third in last, her first start after getting claimed by this barn. Adds blinkers for this one. Might be able to put the rest of the speed away. 7-HIP HOP EMMY might not be quite as quick as some in here but she’ll never be far back. Makes her first start of the year but long series of drills for sharp connections will have her ready.

9-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has far more turf experience than any in here. However, not exactly sure that is a good thing. He’s still a maiden after five turf races, most of them against Louisiana breds, However, he’s had two sharp drills since getting here and at least we know he can handle the surface. Maybe today will be his day. 6-GIANNO races on turf for the first time. His barn wins with around 27% of runners making their turf debut and 29% with runners dropping from maiden specials into maiden claimers. He has been gelded since his last start which often makes a huge difference in their racing. 5-MY BROTHER MIKE hasn’t raced on the lawn since 2022. However, in his four previous turf races, he managed to finish third twice. His speed figures from back then rival those of top choice. Could be an upset in the making. 

So many in this race were low level claimers not long ago, including my other top two picks in this race and 3-BLESSED ANNA. But she has certainly improved. Just won a good starter allowance by daylight in her second local start. Her barn has been red hot. There’s a good chance she’ll make it two in a row. 7-IZZY’S MONSTER finished second in both races this meet and has raced well here in the past. Not sure there is quite enough pace to set up for her late run but she has to be given the benefit of the doubt. 5-CALISUE improved dramatically in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. She just missed in a race at this level in a field that was possibly tougher than this. 

6-BATTLE SCARS will be tough on the turf. Late runner hasn’t won in a year but he has been meeting tougher company. Adds blinkers to make his local debut. Always finished fast. Guessing today he’ll finish faster. 14-CALRISSIAN could be the one to beat if this race does come off the turf and could be even more effective if racing on an off track. Got claimed a couple times at Oaklawn. Good tactical speed will keep him close early but can still finish with a ton of run. 5-C’EST MAGNIFIQUE finished up the track in both starts since moving to this barn but if he can regain the form he showed in New York last summer, and his recent drills suggest that he’s back on the right track, he’s going to be a major player in this race.

Don’t really like the probable favorites in this race so going to try my luck with a longshot. 3-PIRATE MARMALADE raced in maiden specials in his first six starts and then when dropped into maiden claimers for the first time, his saddle slipped and he was eased. Now he drops to the basement. Might finally wake up in this lackluster group. 4-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD tired in his lone start but had shown good early speed and raced against a runner that drew off by eight. He was claimed from the leading barn in that start by another hot outfit. However, he hasn’t had a work since then. Doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. 5-SKY MASTER raced in a $62,500 in last, after getting claimed for $30k in his debut. Now he’s dropping to $6250. Nobody gives away anything in this game. Use caution.

Race 5:  9 - 5 - 8

Late Pick 4 ticket:  3,4,5,6,8,9 / 3,5 / 5,6,8,10 / 4,5

The opening leg of the Late P4 is a $20k maiden claimer on the lawn. Despite the fact there are some interesting firsters from high-end stables (Rivelli and Block), I’ll choose the experience of #9 Righteous Freedom for Roussel (5-2). I don’t like the 0-for-8 record on the win end, but he’s been given a bit of a break, been working well, and will be flying the lane. I would take too low a price on him however, he’s not easy to trust. Big-time spread race for me horizontally.

Race 6:  3 - 5 - 7

Trainer Jon Arnett is having a solid meet so far, hitting at 24%. Perhaps his win percentage will increase with my top choice, #3 Blessed Anna (9-5). She finds a pretty soft field for an allowance race and won last time from the rail, beating some of her main competition today. A repeat effort of the last would get the job done again. 

Race 7:  6 - 8 - 5

The classiest horses of the card match up in a nice allowance affair on the lawn in Race 7. I’ll go with Block’s #6 Battle Scars (5-2), who’s consistent if not spectacular. The 6yo has been rested up for this spot since the FG meet, puts blinkers on, and has a great closing kick. The problem is he often has too much ground to make up. Maybe the blinks will put him more into the game. I sort of wonder why the NY-bred is not racing in his home state vs. his own kind. Maybe he’s just not good enough to compete on that tough circuit.

Race 8:  4  - 5 - 7

The finale is a two-horse race to me between top choice #4 Sendmedowntheroad (5-2) and #5 Sky Master, the ML-favorite. “Sendme” is now being trained by Rodriguez off the claim, and he’s 19% this meet, so I’m not overly concerned about the switch off of Rivelli in this instance. He showed a lot of early speed for the level in his debut before fading to 4th. I’m expecting more stamina today and just don’t trust the #5, who’s dropping from the clouds to $6,250 from $62,500, 10 times less his sales price from the last time he ran. That’s too big a red flag for me to pick on top.