Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 3 Ashton Hill Dave 2 Mach Stockn Barrel

P 5 Corona Era 4 Madame Leza 1 Amazing Graciejane

P 1 Avalanche Hanover 7 Dave and Dennis 4 Ballard Mr Coin

T 6 Manhattanup No Ice 1 Walter’s Keepsake 2 Rose Run Vincent

P 6 Melodies Major 1 Pound Sign 2 Southwind Amazon

P 2 Honey Buzz 4 Fear Abby 8 Peppermint Mocha

P 9 American Fling 3 Sparrow Hanover 1 Lying in Cash

T 2 Don’t Take My Keys 8 John Dutton 5 Shamrock

P 4 Admiral Adam 9 Lord Anthony 5 Out To Get Lucky

T 1 Rose Run Yorick 2 Forky 4 Bamboo

P 2 Tre Cruz 1 Fly Charley Fly 5 Liteningonthebeach

P 9 Martins Millions 6 American Classic 2 Club Scene

P 2 Grantmeawish 5 Birthday 7 Back In My Day

P 2 Coop A Loop 1 Cool Man Dude 3 Louie The Horse

T 4 Barn Hall 3 Joggingtothebank 9 Royal Precedent

P 1 Master Yossi 3 Joker Rockwell 2 The Ideal Dancer

#2 SHARP ATTACK could present the most upside and intent with the change in class and rider for this third career start. Going back to her debut, she debuted against a higher level at Oaklawn and showing up on this circuit for the lighter claiming tag last week, caught a higher race par than her debut.

#6 LOST SUNSET opened with early money before drifting up to the 10.8-1 odds in her debut three weeks ago. She turned in a game effort while perhaps not the desired outcome for the backers with the place finish. They wheel right back for this second start and subtle change in class with the lower race par today.

Class wise #3 CHANNEL POINT has the edge exiting the MCL events on the KY circuit. She should move up naturally with the change, however, must prove herself on the conventional dirt as the two fast track dirt sprints recorded some of the softer figures numbers that would not be as competitive for the top spot here and needs to bring her top effort to clear this condition.

#5 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN also fits at this level, though also with numbers on the lighter side. The consistency and connections add appeal, price compensation is still required. 

Looking at the OptixPLOT, #2 SLAVA UKRAINI should present a pace advantage and strong contender in this field. He will find class relief while coming into this race with improving form and stretching back out to a route of ground. His route races from last season stack up in line with today’s par and looking for the success they found last July with L. Colon aboard.

While SLAVA UKRAINI looks to hold the edge up front, the honest 29 SpeedRate should assist the QII/IV Squares and perhaps less obvious with #6 POWERFUL MAN returning from the layoff with #4 IZEONDEC and #3 PERFUMER coming off wins and taking the step up in class. 

The change in class has been a long time coming for #5 PACIFIC VIEW and the DROP is the right change to find the right level for her to clear this condition. Her current form and local experience could present the edge over #7 FROTHY the new face coming in and one that has recorded some solid figures in the past that would easily get the job done here though less consistent with those efforts and has come up short at shorter odds without excuse.

#8 SAFECRACKER SUE will make some changes for this race and despite the running lines and finishing positions has shown run in spots. She presented upside on the DROP going back to March though lost her race, WASTED a lot of energy prerace and compromised from the outside post; followed up with a similar compromised run from the rail and SLOG last month. Prior to her debut, there was intent to start on the turf and racing at Oaklawn did not have any opportunity for grass this season until this point.

#4 CHURCH PEW went looking for the turf when she debuted last summer and off that start found a tough grass group and WIDE at KY Downs next out. The class level was over her head though should not be the case here on this circuit and remaining at the MCL level.

Looking at Standard Plot along with the Past 3 Runlines, a longshot case can be made for #1 MISS HIGH N MIGHTY in this field and looking to pull off the upset maiden win. She has form coming into this race and back at the MCL level, a level here she has been mildly competitive in the past and positive Projections with the DROP and STRETCH for this race. #6 MISS MADALINE also should benefit from the change in class and initial experience as she did not appear to NO_HANDLE the yielding turf two weeks ago. 

#8 ALPINE GHOST fits right back in today’s race and with today’s race shape – Quad I. He stayed on as the BOS at this level back on 4/27 with the win and can rebound from the WIDE RUSH two weeks ago.

If ALPINE GHOST is unable to clear or run his race #5 CODETOWIN could take advantage and first run. He will return from the layoff and the race back in February when making what appeared to be the winning WIDE MOVE than flattened out late in the lane. His trip should be similar to #3 PARKER as shown on the Plot with PARKER holding his form this season, on this circuit at this level, Surface/Distance coming out of the 4/28 common race.

#7 MAQAMAT might have been better served running in the Saturday event though capable here just not as much value or race shape edge. He turned in a BTL effort back on 4/13 coming in with buried form and more obvious coming back from the CLOSE place last out. 

This is potentially a key race with many to make a contender case for. #3 MISTER CHARMING comes into this race on a hidden every other pattern and should be sitting on a peak effort under the radar. He fits today’s group and should find the right trip in this field looking at the Plot, a position that makes him a contender and overlay at the projected double digit odds.

Giles sticks with MISTER CHARMING opening up #4 NOT VERY GENTLE for A. Burgos and trainer J. Haran this live pair have teamed with a pair of wins (along with a show and 4^th in a stakes) at HS Indy in the past week and intent could look to continue that momentum in this spot.

#5 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has had some tough luck this meet with the EX – EXCUSE on 3/31 and WIDE trip wheeling back just two weeks later. They have been freshened and the class drop for this race to suggest intent looking for the win and a logical type to get it done here. Their former stablemate #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND should present value on the barn change alone. Their form coming into this race is tough to dismiss and that includes the B WIDE trip effort on 4/14.

Next to him (in QII Plot) #2 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE found class relief here and hidden form coming into his race. The higher conditions races at Oaklawn with the WIDE trip on 4/19 and shorter distance and colder rider played against him earlier this month. The effort on 4/7 is the race to key off of and the race that fits here on figures and that starter event a much higher par. 

The analysis starts with ML favorite, #4 SAILING SOLO one that often lives up to his name with the front running style and many LONE trips to victory. While looking at the Plot, there is a scenario for that once again, though some concern with the pattern of layoff lines and returning today for the claiming tag.

Also exiting the FG, #3 SOUL COAXING should offer value here and one that has the class edge over #1 NILES CHANNEL exiting the FG events though not as “flashy” of recent outcomes. Cohen will take over today on SOUL COAXING a rider that should be a good fit for the horse and can keep themselves in early contention as well. Part of that contention could include at least one of the Block runners, #2 SIMPLE LOGIC with #7 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY not necessarily too far off the early pace either.

With Cohen elsewhere, A. Centeno will jump back aboard #8 LAND MARK DEAL and another rider that fits this horse with a recent record of 3-1-1-1 all on the turf and under similar conditions to today’s race. Manley will also be represented by #9 SILVER QUARTERS, a horse that found his best form this year at TP and perhaps peaked in his form cycle and coming off the 44-day break just 13-days ago might have needed the race more than the subtle (TROUBLE-) trip itself.

Should this race move to the main track, #12 GLOBAL EMPIRE could be the beneficiary depending on the scratches with #14 CODE RUNNER moving up in a big way overall. He projected upside from the TP races and upgraded from the WIDE and subtle trip last month at KEE. 

WORK ALL WEEK STAKES:

A competitive statebred stakes event with a couple of barns represented heavily with contenders. S. Becker has the trio of runners and looking at the Plot tough to see the stablemates #4 FAST JACK and #5 W W HOTSHOT engaging too strongly with the edge to W W HOTSHOT of the two. Perhaps with that scenario stablemate #2 MEGAN’S HONOR steps up and coming out of the higher level N1X allowance races at OP today’s event is closer to a lateral move if not class relief.

Those three have a big (literally Big Square) threat in #7 RICHIESONAROLL as one of the two J. Rodriguez runners. He had the class edge on 4/21 exiting the Commonwealth (G3) two weeks earlier and the combination of the two starts likely saw some regression play a role on 5/11 though a race that should present fitness for today’s stakes race.

Stablemate #1 HUEY ATTACK does appear the “longshot” of the barn, though he has a statebred stakes win taking the Robert S. Molaro stakes in 2022 and place finish in the Lightening Jet in 2021. He struggled to be that same horse last year as a 6yo and still must prove himself back on that level, though should he win here looking back you could make the case how.

#3 BEEALEA also has a statebred stakes win in the Polar Expedition last year though a different ball game at the route distance of that race cutting back to a sprint here. The connections going in for the claim last out could have had this race in mind and no risk to run here protected regardless of outcome.

In terms of #6 BUREAU, he is a longshot that is not too far out of it. His local record at Hawthorne might not represent the horse he is today and coming into this race. Most of his starts were contested here at the route distance and at a time where he was not quite in the top form he is in now. 

#3 CADENCIA is overdue for a win coming back this year and in the right spot on this circuit. She caught TROUBLE racing X_FLOW in her sprint return from the layoff in February at TAM and given a massive flow upgrade (Very Fast early and late) on 4/7 at KEE and projected to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE trip on 4/20 at KEE.

#5 STEPHANIE’ S CHARM turned in a BTL effort without much in her favor (TACTIC-) given the trip on 4/27 an N1 allowance event at CD that finds a similar par and change in purse on this circuit looking to assist in picking up the belated second career win.

Block will send out a pair with #9 I’M BOX OFFICE established on the turf and here at Hawthorne where she has been waiting patiently for the grass, keying off a couple of races moved to the main track since the 8/24 EX – EXCUSE to close out 2023. Number wise stablemate #4 FOURFIFTYSEVEN has yet to run the figures of some of her older rivals including CADENCIA and STEPHANIE’S CHARM though as a sophomore still presents overall upside and can IMPROVE off the subtle trip on the main track earlier this month at HS Indy. 

Starting to feel like #7 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR chasing this horse this meet though again lands in a spot to compete and expected fair odds. The allowance class turned out to be a bit of a test though still showed run as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and lack of Red in the current form. The class drop two weeks ago projected them to move up to contender status and not quite on that expectation level (C+) though was unprepared at the break creating a SLOG (rider change and blinkers on here) and made a WIDE MOVE into a race won on the front end with no real change in running order.

Looking at the Plot (Standard) MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR should have pace to target given the “Fire” Contention that features their main rivals along the inside four stalls including ML favorite, #4 PHILIPSBURG. 

A competitive bunch kicks off the day as we will see if there's enough pace to chase for 2-SHARP ATTACK. This one is looking for a confidence boost after her first two starts where she got away slowly in each. She drops to the bottom here but can't be tossed out if she can get away cleanly. 6-LOST SUNSET showed speed in her debut and almost held on in that spot. She does take the class drop today but also runs for the higher claiming tag being Illinois-bred. Let's see if she can clear and never look back. 3-CHANEL POINT is the other that could show some speed as she has improved with the recent class drop. She just missed last out and picks up the hot riding Cohen today.

Unlike the opener where there may not be a ton of pace, this race has the potential for a pace battle upfront between the inside two. If those two do hook up, it could set things up for 3-PERFUMER to sit back and rally late, much like he did in his last start. He does come in with a month in between starts but that added race may be helpful as he typical runs well when fresh. 4-IZEONDEC is another that should be closing late and he ran a solid race under Cohen last out. In that spot the concern was if he was going to hang in the lane, but he had no issue running by the leaders as he cruised to the easy score. 2-SLAVA UKRANI is the one with the potential to wire this field as he gets back around two turns. He has both career scores at Hawthorne and each were on the front end. If he can shake loose from Blooming Garden early, he could possibly steal this one.

Although there is some rain in the forecast, on or off turf I expect a good race from 5-PACIFIC VIEW.  She ran well in the slop two back but didn't handle the softer turf in her last. She does face easier today though and has enough tactical speed to get into the mix early in a race that is lacking of pace. 8-SAFECRACKER SUE improved with the addition of Lasix in her last couple and has worked well since coming over to Hawthorne. With the lack of pace in here and the stretch in distance, she may look to show some early speed to find position into the first turn. 7-FROTHY has run some solid races against better as she figures to take a good amount of action in here. Her best effort came in a paceless race last summer as she may get a similar setup today.

Not a ton of pace in this race and the one who can rate close draws the outside. That may be beneficial as 8-ALPINE GHOST looks to work out a trip in here. He defeated similar two back before facing tougher in his last. If he can get back to that performance at this level, he should be tough. 5-CODETOWIN makes his first start of the meet for a barn that has been going really well. He has only a couple of works toward the return but being an experience racehorse, I'm sure the barn knows he is ready. 7-MAQAMAT scratched from a tougher spot Saturday for this race as he fits quite well in here. He will need some pace to chase but he has shown he can rally late as he races for his new barn for the first time.

It's tough to overlook the last two races from 1-WHERE'D THE DAY GO as he got similar trips in both and posted the same winning effort. This field has come up a bit tougher for quality but could have the same pace scenario as his last two starts. The inside is no issue either and he loves this Hawthorne strip. 5-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS will be very tough as he takes the class drop today. He has been competitive in his last couple as the winners off his last two starts led from gate to wire. He should take action here for connections that are having a strong meet. 3-MISTER CHARMING may be a bit of a sleeper in here as he's worth a look if he can get to his race two back. He has enough tactical speed to rate close early and should provide more than enough value at the windows.

Hoping the rain misses us and we can stay on the grass. But turf or dirt, I like the chances of 3-SOUL COAXING at a price. He raced well in New Orleans over the winter and his last can be dismissed after a poor start. He has worked well on the main track too and gets Cohen in the saddle. 4-SAILING SOLO is likely turf only as he like this Hawthorne course and is always very game on the front end. He had a troubled trip in his last and takes the class drop today but as a 9yo he still tries hard each time out and has worked very well toward his return. 9-SILVER QUARTERS is another that figures on turf or dirt. He does need pace to chase though as he rarely shows much early speed but often comes charging in the lane. Let's see how many he can pick off late in here.

A really solid field for the Work all Week Handicap that is led by 124lbs highweight 5-W W HOTSHOT for trainer Scott Becker, who has three in here. This one has speed to burn and comes off a solid score in his last. He loves the distance, likes the track, and looks to have been a fine claim for $40k here last summer. Let's see if he is as impressive as Oeuvre was in the filly and mare event week. 7-RICHIESONAROLL has been in very good form as he has proven to be an excellent claim for just $12,500 last summer. He was a solid third as the favorite against open company last out and should be in a fine stalking spot in here. 2-MEGAN'S HONOR shortens back to a sprint after a string of short stretch miles at Oaklawn this winter. He will need some pace to chase but figures to be closing quickly in the lane.

A solid allowance bunch is led by Kentucky shipper 5-STEPHANIE'S CHARM for trainer Fausto Gutierrez as she comes in off a good effort at Churchill in her last. She held her own on the synthetic at Gulfstream two back as well and should find enough pace to close into in here. The class relief may be enough to get her into the winner's circle today. 12-ALL ABOUT ME is one with speed that looks to contend from the outside draw. She was a good winner at Tampa two back but will have to get away quickly to look to cross over into the first turn. 4-FOURFIFTYSEVEN has tactical speed as she tries the turf for the first time today. She recently arrived at Hawthorne and posted a good work over the dirt. Let's see if she can stalk and pounce in the lane.

6-LOST SUNSET seems likely to graduate at a short price. She was narrowly beaten at a higher level in her lone start. This race is longer but the field is easier. Can build a commanding lead and never look back. 3-CHANEL POINT is another coming off a narrow loss. Her’s was at Turfway in February. She came from off the pace in that last race but had shown good speed in previous starts. Should be a factor whatever running style she utilized today. 2-SHARP ATTACK finished sixth in both her starts but both were against better rivals. The drop to this level could help greatly. 

2-SLAVA UKRAINI could be tough to catch. He stretches out for the first time this year. He’s been running out of gas lately but he’s never been in this easy. Could put away all challengers at this level. Late runners 4-IZEONDEC and 3-PERFUMER seem to have the best chance of catching top choice. Perfumer out closed Izeondec two starts back but that gelding came back to win last going away. 

Weird race. None have shown much affinity for turf. 5-PACIFIC VIEW didn’t show a lot in her first turf race of the meet. However, she did have a couple good turf races last year, including one here. She looks like the best speed. Maybe good enough with the drop back into maiden claimers for the first time since last May. 7-FROTHY did have that one good race at Ellis last year which probably makes her the one of the top contenders. Plus, her trainer seems to have had the most success with turf runners. Takes blinkers off which, in her case, could help because she seemed to regress when racing with them. Not in love with her chances but… 4-CHURCH PEW finished up the track in her lone turf but she was racing at the extremely tough Kentucky Downs short meet. It is interesting to note that her connections much have though she was a turf horse since her debut was originally scheduled for the weeds. She’s back in the barn where she started her racing career. Worth a look.

5-CODETOWIN has had plenty of local success in the past but was racing for different connections back then. However, he’s back in a red hot barn right now. He finished up the track, at Delta, in his most recent start but was, again, racing for a different barn. His recent drills show little but he doesn’t have to be at his best to beat this group. 7-MAQAMAT just finished second at this level. He got claimed from that race by a barn with a solid percentage of winning first-time claims. Could be even better today. 8-ALPINE GHOST couldn’t handle slightly better in last but he did win at this level two races back, beating many of this group, but not the top pair. He could be the quickest member of this group. If let loose early he might not get caught.

5-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS drops once again. He split all three fields since getting claimed by this barn. Got claimed from last but the claim was voided so now they drop him again, possibly thinking that others will be afraid to claim. It’s been nearly six weeks since his last race and he’s had only the one work during the interim but he’s making his third start within a two-month period. Guessing he’ll be good enough. 1-WHERE’D THE DAY GO was a daylight winner in his last two starts but is still eligible for this race since those wins were at the $4k claiming level and wouldn’t affect eligibility. Still, he is meeting tougher. Might have to kick it up a notch. 2-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE finished at or near the back of the pack in all races since moving to this barn but has been facing so much tougher at Oaklawn. Can wake up in a big way at this level. 4-NOT VERY GENTLE finished 21 lengths back in his first start of the meet but the winner was 20 length clear and “Gentle” finished well ahead of the fourth-place finisher. That was his first race since August. Should be far fitter for this event.

At first glance, it looks like only a few runners in here are capable of winning this but, when you dig deeper, you see a field full of possible contenders. 4-SAILING SOLO certainly looks like the one to beat. He’s earned over $300,000 in his career, mostly on turf. However, he’s a nine-year-old making his first start of the year. He’s been plagued by layoffs the last few years. On the other hand, he’s generally a major player when he does run and this could be one of the easier fields he ever faced. Just hard to be sure what he has left, especially since he’s likely to be fighting for the lead. 1-NIKLES CHANNEL doesn’t have the apparent “class” of top choice but he’s been red hot lately and won all three of his races this year; all on the lawn. He’s had three useful drills since his last Fair Grounds in March. He’s taking on better but he doesn’t know that. Might keep his win streak alive. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC hasn’t won since October of 2022 but he is dropping into straight claimers for the first time since 2021. The main issue with him, for me, is that he has a bad case of seconditis, especially on turf. Might break through today but he might not. 9-SILVER QUARTERS is a bit of a sleeper. He finished sixth in his last in Indiana but he made a huge middle move to get into contention before running out of room. Still, he only lost by a little over three lengths. Beats watching. 7-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is worth another look. Stablemate of Simple Logic makes his first start since October but he did finish first in three of his last four starts, though he was DQ’d from one of them. Price shot could be a factor in the gimmicks.

This is a good field of Illinois breds but they are going to have a hard time beating 5-W W HOTSHOT. Hard to believe he was claimed a couple years ago for $12,500. He’s been victorious in 11 of his 26 races, including nine wins from 17 starts at the distance. He can close a bit but speed is the name of his game. 7-RICHIESONAROLL could get the trip. He has speed of his own but think he’ll be racing off what could be a blistering pace. Will attempt to pass them late. 4-FAST JACK will try to go head-to-head with Hotshot. Races for the same connections as that rival. Don’t think he’s quite as quick but he did win eight of 12 for a reason. 2-MEGAN’S HONOR, the third member of the Becker barn, has been racing at the tough Oaklawn meet. He had only limited success there but figures to be far tougher with the move back to Illinois breds.

3-CADENCIA isn’t a strong choice but she’s done pretty well on turf, if you can overlook those last two races at Keeneland. Her main issue here is that she has been running prominently lately and there’s a ton of other speed in the race. However, if her rider can get her to relax early the way she did early in her career, she could finish with plenty of run. 5-STEPHANIE’S CHARM certainly figures. Her connections thought enough of her to run her in a number of stakes races. However, she’s had 13 turf races and never won with only one second and one third to her credit. 9-I’M BOX OFFICE makes her first start of the year but she’s been training well for her comeback and her barn sports a whopping 31% win rate with runners returning from similar layoffs. 1-WHAT’S TO DO is likely to be ignored, possibly with good reason, but if you go back and look at her turf figures, she’s right there with most of these runners. Just sayin.

4-PHILIPSBURG could hold a slight edge. He was probably a bit overmatched in last but still barely lost. He was an easy winner two races back. The drop in claiming price could send him back to the winner’s circle. 3-CHAOS REIGNS might be better going long but he won a pair of races at the tough Oaklawn meet and not many runners were able to do that. Would certainly have to consider in this spot. 1-BALADINE has sneaky good speed and can make full use of it with the drop into the easiest field of his career. 7-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR drops and adds blinkers. He’ll be stalking early and can finish with a flourish.

Race 6:  4 - 1 - 3

Late Pick 4 ticket:  1,3,4 / 4,5 / 3,5,9 / 2,4,7  ($27)

#4 Sailing Solo (9-5) has something many of his contenders don’t have: early speed. And while I’m hesitant to take 9yo’s off layoffs, he has been working forwardly and locally. His class is undeniable and if feels like the $25k claiming price makes sense in the situation. I would not take too low a price on the win end, but is a must use in all verticals and horizontals.

Race 7:  5 - 4 - 2

The Work All Week S., named after the talented Ill-bred who won the BC Sprint back in the day, has a $75k purse and is dominated by trainer Scott Becker, who has half the runners in the field. It’s hard to believe the two main speeds, #5 WW Hotshot (7-5) and #4 Fast Jack, will battle each other considering they’re both trained by Becker. WW Hotshot had a perfect prep at FanDuel winning easily on the lead, but he doesn’t have to win that way. Expect a horse trained by Becker to win, perhaps even a Becker trifecta.

Race 8:  9 - 5 - 3

I’m Box Office (9-2) will try to be the star of the Race 8 show off the layoff and close to the lead for Trainer Block. Although her Beyer figs are slower than others, the Timeform numbers suggest she’s right there with the top horses in the race. She can’t be too far back and will have to tuck in early on the first turn, but she’s working well and seems prepared to win today.

Race 9:  4 - 7 - 2

If early speed is your calling card at the betting windows, then #4 Philipsburg (9-5) is your man. The main question I have is why the drop down in class after winning at a higher level. Perhaps the connections are just being realistic or couldn’t find another spot based on the condition book. He’s the likely winner in the finale if he breaks on top.