Handicapper Tips & Picks

6-LOST SUNSET seems likely to graduate at a short price. She was narrowly beaten at a higher level in her lone start. This race is longer but the field is easier. Can build a commanding lead and never look back. 3-CHANEL POINT is another coming off a narrow loss. Her’s was at Turfway in February. She came from off the pace in that last race but had shown good speed in previous starts. Should be a factor whatever running style she utilized today. 2-SHARP ATTACK finished sixth in both her starts but both were against better rivals. The drop to this level could help greatly. 

2-SLAVA UKRAINI could be tough to catch. He stretches out for the first time this year. He’s been running out of gas lately but he’s never been in this easy. Could put away all challengers at this level. Late runners 4-IZEONDEC and 3-PERFUMER seem to have the best chance of catching top choice. Perfumer out closed Izeondec two starts back but that gelding came back to win last going away. 

Weird race. None have shown much affinity for turf. 5-PACIFIC VIEW didn’t show a lot in her first turf race of the meet. However, she did have a couple good turf races last year, including one here. She looks like the best speed. Maybe good enough with the drop back into maiden claimers for the first time since last May. 7-FROTHY did have that one good race at Ellis last year which probably makes her the one of the top contenders. Plus, her trainer seems to have had the most success with turf runners. Takes blinkers off which, in her case, could help because she seemed to regress when racing with them. Not in love with her chances but… 4-CHURCH PEW finished up the track in her lone turf but she was racing at the extremely tough Kentucky Downs short meet. It is interesting to note that her connections much have though she was a turf horse since her debut was originally scheduled for the weeds. She’s back in the barn where she started her racing career. Worth a look.

5-CODETOWIN has had plenty of local success in the past but was racing for different connections back then. However, he’s back in a red hot barn right now. He finished up the track, at Delta, in his most recent start but was, again, racing for a different barn. His recent drills show little but he doesn’t have to be at his best to beat this group. 7-MAQAMAT just finished second at this level. He got claimed from that race by a barn with a solid percentage of winning first-time claims. Could be even better today. 8-ALPINE GHOST couldn’t handle slightly better in last but he did win at this level two races back, beating many of this group, but not the top pair. He could be the quickest member of this group. If let loose early he might not get caught.

5-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS drops once again. He split all three fields since getting claimed by this barn. Got claimed from last but the claim was voided so now they drop him again, possibly thinking that others will be afraid to claim. It’s been nearly six weeks since his last race and he’s had only the one work during the interim but he’s making his third start within a two-month period. Guessing he’ll be good enough. 1-WHERE’D THE DAY GO was a daylight winner in his last two starts but is still eligible for this race since those wins were at the $4k claiming level and wouldn’t affect eligibility. Still, he is meeting tougher. Might have to kick it up a notch. 2-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE finished at or near the back of the pack in all races since moving to this barn but has been facing so much tougher at Oaklawn. Can wake up in a big way at this level. 4-NOT VERY GENTLE finished 21 lengths back in his first start of the meet but the winner was 20 length clear and “Gentle” finished well ahead of the fourth-place finisher. That was his first race since August. Should be far fitter for this event.

At first glance, it looks like only a few runners in here are capable of winning this but, when you dig deeper, you see a field full of possible contenders. 4-SAILING SOLO certainly looks like the one to beat. He’s earned over $300,000 in his career, mostly on turf. However, he’s a nine-year-old making his first start of the year. He’s been plagued by layoffs the last few years. On the other hand, he’s generally a major player when he does run and this could be one of the easier fields he ever faced. Just hard to be sure what he has left, especially since he’s likely to be fighting for the lead. 1-NIKLES CHANNEL doesn’t have the apparent “class” of top choice but he’s been red hot lately and won all three of his races this year; all on the lawn. He’s had three useful drills since his last Fair Grounds in March. He’s taking on better but he doesn’t know that. Might keep his win streak alive. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC hasn’t won since October of 2022 but he is dropping into straight claimers for the first time since 2021. The main issue with him, for me, is that he has a bad case of seconditis, especially on turf. Might break through today but he might not. 9-SILVER QUARTERS is a bit of a sleeper. He finished sixth in his last in Indiana but he made a huge middle move to get into contention before running out of room. Still, he only lost by a little over three lengths. Beats watching. 7-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is worth another look. Stablemate of Simple Logic makes his first start since October but he did finish first in three of his last four starts, though he was DQ’d from one of them. Price shot could be a factor in the gimmicks.

This is a good field of Illinois breds but they are going to have a hard time beating 5-W W HOTSHOT. Hard to believe he was claimed a couple years ago for $12,500. He’s been victorious in 11 of his 26 races, including nine wins from 17 starts at the distance. He can close a bit but speed is the name of his game. 7-RICHIESONAROLL could get the trip. He has speed of his own but think he’ll be racing off what could be a blistering pace. Will attempt to pass them late. 4-FAST JACK will try to go head-to-head with Hotshot. Races for the same connections as that rival. Don’t think he’s quite as quick but he did win eight of 12 for a reason. 2-MEGAN’S HONOR, the third member of the Becker barn, has been racing at the tough Oaklawn meet. He had only limited success there but figures to be far tougher with the move back to Illinois breds.

3-CADENCIA isn’t a strong choice but she’s done pretty well on turf, if you can overlook those last two races at Keeneland. Her main issue here is that she has been running prominently lately and there’s a ton of other speed in the race. However, if her rider can get her to relax early the way she did early in her career, she could finish with plenty of run. 5-STEPHANIE’S CHARM certainly figures. Her connections thought enough of her to run her in a number of stakes races. However, she’s had 13 turf races and never won with only one second and one third to her credit. 9-I’M BOX OFFICE makes her first start of the year but she’s been training well for her comeback and her barn sports a whopping 31% win rate with runners returning from similar layoffs. 1-WHAT’S TO DO is likely to be ignored, possibly with good reason, but if you go back and look at her turf figures, she’s right there with most of these runners. Just sayin.

4-PHILIPSBURG could hold a slight edge. He was probably a bit overmatched in last but still barely lost. He was an easy winner two races back. The drop in claiming price could send him back to the winner’s circle. 3-CHAOS REIGNS might be better going long but he won a pair of races at the tough Oaklawn meet and not many runners were able to do that. Would certainly have to consider in this spot. 1-BALADINE has sneaky good speed and can make full use of it with the drop into the easiest field of his career. 7-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR drops and adds blinkers. He’ll be stalking early and can finish with a flourish.