Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SHARP ATTACK could present the most upside and intent with the change in class and rider for this third career start. Going back to her debut, she debuted against a higher level at Oaklawn and showing up on this circuit for the lighter claiming tag last week, caught a higher race par than her debut.

#6 LOST SUNSET opened with early money before drifting up to the 10.8-1 odds in her debut three weeks ago. She turned in a game effort while perhaps not the desired outcome for the backers with the place finish. They wheel right back for this second start and subtle change in class with the lower race par today.

Class wise #3 CHANNEL POINT has the edge exiting the MCL events on the KY circuit. She should move up naturally with the change, however, must prove herself on the conventional dirt as the two fast track dirt sprints recorded some of the softer figures numbers that would not be as competitive for the top spot here and needs to bring her top effort to clear this condition.

#5 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN also fits at this level, though also with numbers on the lighter side. The consistency and connections add appeal, price compensation is still required. 

Looking at the OptixPLOT, #2 SLAVA UKRAINI should present a pace advantage and strong contender in this field. He will find class relief while coming into this race with improving form and stretching back out to a route of ground. His route races from last season stack up in line with today’s par and looking for the success they found last July with L. Colon aboard.

While SLAVA UKRAINI looks to hold the edge up front, the honest 29 SpeedRate should assist the QII/IV Squares and perhaps less obvious with #6 POWERFUL MAN returning from the layoff with #4 IZEONDEC and #3 PERFUMER coming off wins and taking the step up in class. 

The change in class has been a long time coming for #5 PACIFIC VIEW and the DROP is the right change to find the right level for her to clear this condition. Her current form and local experience could present the edge over #7 FROTHY the new face coming in and one that has recorded some solid figures in the past that would easily get the job done here though less consistent with those efforts and has come up short at shorter odds without excuse.

#8 SAFECRACKER SUE will make some changes for this race and despite the running lines and finishing positions has shown run in spots. She presented upside on the DROP going back to March though lost her race, WASTED a lot of energy prerace and compromised from the outside post; followed up with a similar compromised run from the rail and SLOG last month. Prior to her debut, there was intent to start on the turf and racing at Oaklawn did not have any opportunity for grass this season until this point.

#4 CHURCH PEW went looking for the turf when she debuted last summer and off that start found a tough grass group and WIDE at KY Downs next out. The class level was over her head though should not be the case here on this circuit and remaining at the MCL level.

Looking at Standard Plot along with the Past 3 Runlines, a longshot case can be made for #1 MISS HIGH N MIGHTY in this field and looking to pull off the upset maiden win. She has form coming into this race and back at the MCL level, a level here she has been mildly competitive in the past and positive Projections with the DROP and STRETCH for this race. #6 MISS MADALINE also should benefit from the change in class and initial experience as she did not appear to NO_HANDLE the yielding turf two weeks ago. 

#8 ALPINE GHOST fits right back in today’s race and with today’s race shape – Quad I. He stayed on as the BOS at this level back on 4/27 with the win and can rebound from the WIDE RUSH two weeks ago.

If ALPINE GHOST is unable to clear or run his race #5 CODETOWIN could take advantage and first run. He will return from the layoff and the race back in February when making what appeared to be the winning WIDE MOVE than flattened out late in the lane. His trip should be similar to #3 PARKER as shown on the Plot with PARKER holding his form this season, on this circuit at this level, Surface/Distance coming out of the 4/28 common race.

#7 MAQAMAT might have been better served running in the Saturday event though capable here just not as much value or race shape edge. He turned in a BTL effort back on 4/13 coming in with buried form and more obvious coming back from the CLOSE place last out. 

This is potentially a key race with many to make a contender case for. #3 MISTER CHARMING comes into this race on a hidden every other pattern and should be sitting on a peak effort under the radar. He fits today’s group and should find the right trip in this field looking at the Plot, a position that makes him a contender and overlay at the projected double digit odds.

Giles sticks with MISTER CHARMING opening up #4 NOT VERY GENTLE for A. Burgos and trainer J. Haran this live pair have teamed with a pair of wins (along with a show and 4^th in a stakes) at HS Indy in the past week and intent could look to continue that momentum in this spot.

#5 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has had some tough luck this meet with the EX – EXCUSE on 3/31 and WIDE trip wheeling back just two weeks later. They have been freshened and the class drop for this race to suggest intent looking for the win and a logical type to get it done here. Their former stablemate #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND should present value on the barn change alone. Their form coming into this race is tough to dismiss and that includes the B WIDE trip effort on 4/14.

Next to him (in QII Plot) #2 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE found class relief here and hidden form coming into his race. The higher conditions races at Oaklawn with the WIDE trip on 4/19 and shorter distance and colder rider played against him earlier this month. The effort on 4/7 is the race to key off of and the race that fits here on figures and that starter event a much higher par. 

The analysis starts with ML favorite, #4 SAILING SOLO one that often lives up to his name with the front running style and many LONE trips to victory. While looking at the Plot, there is a scenario for that once again, though some concern with the pattern of layoff lines and returning today for the claiming tag.

Also exiting the FG, #3 SOUL COAXING should offer value here and one that has the class edge over #1 NILES CHANNEL exiting the FG events though not as “flashy” of recent outcomes. Cohen will take over today on SOUL COAXING a rider that should be a good fit for the horse and can keep themselves in early contention as well. Part of that contention could include at least one of the Block runners, #2 SIMPLE LOGIC with #7 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY not necessarily too far off the early pace either.

With Cohen elsewhere, A. Centeno will jump back aboard #8 LAND MARK DEAL and another rider that fits this horse with a recent record of 3-1-1-1 all on the turf and under similar conditions to today’s race. Manley will also be represented by #9 SILVER QUARTERS, a horse that found his best form this year at TP and perhaps peaked in his form cycle and coming off the 44-day break just 13-days ago might have needed the race more than the subtle (TROUBLE-) trip itself.

Should this race move to the main track, #12 GLOBAL EMPIRE could be the beneficiary depending on the scratches with #14 CODE RUNNER moving up in a big way overall. He projected upside from the TP races and upgraded from the WIDE and subtle trip last month at KEE. 

WORK ALL WEEK STAKES:

A competitive statebred stakes event with a couple of barns represented heavily with contenders. S. Becker has the trio of runners and looking at the Plot tough to see the stablemates #4 FAST JACK and #5 W W HOTSHOT engaging too strongly with the edge to W W HOTSHOT of the two. Perhaps with that scenario stablemate #2 MEGAN’S HONOR steps up and coming out of the higher level N1X allowance races at OP today’s event is closer to a lateral move if not class relief.

Those three have a big (literally Big Square) threat in #7 RICHIESONAROLL as one of the two J. Rodriguez runners. He had the class edge on 4/21 exiting the Commonwealth (G3) two weeks earlier and the combination of the two starts likely saw some regression play a role on 5/11 though a race that should present fitness for today’s stakes race.

Stablemate #1 HUEY ATTACK does appear the “longshot” of the barn, though he has a statebred stakes win taking the Robert S. Molaro stakes in 2022 and place finish in the Lightening Jet in 2021. He struggled to be that same horse last year as a 6yo and still must prove himself back on that level, though should he win here looking back you could make the case how.

#3 BEEALEA also has a statebred stakes win in the Polar Expedition last year though a different ball game at the route distance of that race cutting back to a sprint here. The connections going in for the claim last out could have had this race in mind and no risk to run here protected regardless of outcome.

In terms of #6 BUREAU, he is a longshot that is not too far out of it. His local record at Hawthorne might not represent the horse he is today and coming into this race. Most of his starts were contested here at the route distance and at a time where he was not quite in the top form he is in now. 

#3 CADENCIA is overdue for a win coming back this year and in the right spot on this circuit. She caught TROUBLE racing X_FLOW in her sprint return from the layoff in February at TAM and given a massive flow upgrade (Very Fast early and late) on 4/7 at KEE and projected to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE trip on 4/20 at KEE.

#5 STEPHANIE’ S CHARM turned in a BTL effort without much in her favor (TACTIC-) given the trip on 4/27 an N1 allowance event at CD that finds a similar par and change in purse on this circuit looking to assist in picking up the belated second career win.

Block will send out a pair with #9 I’M BOX OFFICE established on the turf and here at Hawthorne where she has been waiting patiently for the grass, keying off a couple of races moved to the main track since the 8/24 EX – EXCUSE to close out 2023. Number wise stablemate #4 FOURFIFTYSEVEN has yet to run the figures of some of her older rivals including CADENCIA and STEPHANIE’S CHARM though as a sophomore still presents overall upside and can IMPROVE off the subtle trip on the main track earlier this month at HS Indy. 

Starting to feel like #7 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR chasing this horse this meet though again lands in a spot to compete and expected fair odds. The allowance class turned out to be a bit of a test though still showed run as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and lack of Red in the current form. The class drop two weeks ago projected them to move up to contender status and not quite on that expectation level (C+) though was unprepared at the break creating a SLOG (rider change and blinkers on here) and made a WIDE MOVE into a race won on the front end with no real change in running order.

Looking at the Plot (Standard) MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR should have pace to target given the “Fire” Contention that features their main rivals along the inside four stalls including ML favorite, #4 PHILIPSBURG.