Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 COME ON LADY caught the eye on debut with a sneaky good effort last year at MNR and caught the eye in the paddock (PRERACE+) here two weeks ago. She wheels right back from that race and WIDE trip upgrading her into today’s race.

COME ON LADY will meet some fellow rivals from that 5/18 common race: #1 MISS MIKOS perhaps will be the most obvious of the bunch given the place finish and overall solid effort as she had to RUSH up into a DUEL (and given preference as the Q1 Square over Circle #5 LIONS LAW) following a stumble (TROUBLES+) and bumped around coming out of the gate. #6 IRISH SPARK also had a rough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start and made a legit MOVE that gives her another look right back in here. #4 JOYZELLA is tougher to back on the win end (DROP) though can return to cone of her better effort including the 4/20 B- effort to get right back in the mix. 

#1 CHARLIE LIGHTNING should be tough in this spot and returning under similar conditions first off the claim for Hugo Rodriguez. His speed figures stand out as some of the higher and consistently higher than many in this field on their best day.

Looking at the Plot, CHARLIE LIGHTNING has enough early speed to keep #2 MAD DRAGON honest up front as he attempts to find another “LONE” trip stepping up in class. The class drop could benefit #6 OVER CALENDARED finds a change in class that could be effective based on his current form. His Surface/Distance form is similar (Plot) to rival #3 FUTURE VISION one that has had some subtle trips this season and while they all have the “horse to beat” a share is not out of the question. 

The early pace should be honest with the “Sun” Contention and higher 86 SpeedRate with most of the field in Quad I/III and above the par line. That upgrades the two Quad II/IV runners: #1 T LAW has turned in competitive races at this level and figures on par looking to give trainer I. Moreno that second (at the time of this analysis) career training win. #7 BOURBON LIFE turned in a BTL effort making a WIDE CLOSE and showing GRIT in the place finish back on 4/7. The connections stepped up and wheeled back in an allowance on the turf at HS Indy in the next start and returned to form with a competitive race at this level along with T LAW earning a B- OptixGRADE and those two the only runners here with the lack of “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines. 

On class and figures, #3 MISS RIVER RAT is the clear-cut horse to beat. She has often been her own biggest hurdle with the “gate” issues the pattern of SLOG, TROUBLE_S going back to her debut and often tough to shake playing a role in her race record. The big edge today should assist if ever to overcome even if she again gives the others a head start.

Looking at the Plot, there is a level of “Sun” Contention though paired with the lower SpeedRate, all below the Par Line. The M. Boyce pair of #2 DEVIL and #4 RUMBRANT fits in that area, #6 CLOEY ATTACK is right there and as she makes her second start of the season (PREP) a move forward could be projected today giving her the Q1 EP edge over #7 BOYCE’S BANDITA. 

#3 DOROTHY CROWFOOT makes her belated return to the races and Hawthorne keying off the dominant (B+) debut win last year. She was not as effective the following two starts though to be far she was in tough in both with WIDE trips up against stakes company in August and met stakes runners in the October KEE allowance closing out 2023.  Tough to compare the shorter 4.5f dash sprint races to other types of distances though if the 87 figure from the debut last July can compare here that number is as fast as the top efforts from the established older horses in this field including #4 SAMARITA.

Looking to get real creative underneath, #1 SECRET OPERATION had a slight excuse on 5/5 as she was unprepared at the break and chasing at the route distance. Her sprint races under similar allowance conditions are on the softer on the win end though capable to get a minor share as a less “obvious” runner in this field. 

#3 STOLICH is upgraded with the added ground just as they were on 5/11 when compromised with the TACTIC- and TROUBLE trip. They wheeled right back on 5/19 and improved with the B- OptixGRADE at the level however given no favors with the shorter distance. Given the PREP coming off the layoff on 4/27 and the noted trips since he has not had the chance to run a top effort and those better races from last season make him a prime contender.

#5 ANCIENT MAN has select races that stack up as competitive as any in this field and appears intent today with the class drop making his first start at this lower claiming level. His form this season is sneaky keying off some subtle trips (BTL 4/13) and wheeling right back from the 5/26 event when he was unprepared at the start.

#4 ARMAVIR is one that improved with racing last season and is on a similar progressive pattern coming into this race. His numbers are not as strong as some others (#6 PLAIN OR PEANUT) though presents upside as a lightly raced 4yo that might not have shown his best yet.

Filly #2 JOCELYN is not far out of it while taking the change in class, a slight rise despite the change in claiming tag. The weight break is notable however she has been racing light and that alone should not move her up here though will pick up a rider change to Centeno, a rider that has had success for this barn this season. 

#2 AVASARLA comes out of a contentious layoff return on 5/11 and might have needed the race as she was “cold” on the board and restless in the GATE. Some intent could be in play as they wheel right back here and with Centeno back aboard, the primary rider from prior seasons.

#8 ESSENTIAL BELLA was also in that 5/11 common race and turned in a strong effort, a B OptixGRADE with the BLANKET show finish. She was claimed out of that event and back in one week where intent did not appear in play stepped up in class shifting to the turf though should hold conditioning from that WIDE trip returning here, essentially given three weeks since her last “race.”

#1 STACK SHACK has races that make her competitive and some subtle form this year with the CLOSE and GALLOP+ on 4/20. She is required to return to top form to competition though perhaps this could be the time with the change in class and O. Mojica aboard especially can be given the upgrade with the front wrap removal. The surface switch also comes into play with #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA one that recorded some of her higher figures on the turf/synth and has struggled to translate those figures to the dirt, something that creates less value here at the ML.

#11 SADE PURSE could be worth keeping in the mix and could be dismissed with the post position in this full field. She will make her second start of the meet though going back to the 5/19 event when she was making her first start on this circuit might have required the race with the timing coming out of the TAM events. She has back numbers prior to the longer layoff should she run back to those races she is a major player. The same could be said for #12 SUPORB one that started to find her top form last summer at BTP with those effort on par though too some racing to get there and could be concerned with the layoff here as well as the outside post with her early speed and must work out a trip (along with a top effort) in this full field.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK is lighter to make a top contender case for, though looking at the Plot and the Contention she could pick up horses from off the pace (Q4 Square) for a minor share at longer odds. 

The lone turf race on the card is weather dependent as some rain could fall on Saturday and adjustments will be required on race day with a potential surface switch and with some changes to the field with many on the outside that could get in.

ML favorite #10 DANVILLE is logical in that role and while entered in the main body of the field and capable on the TURF his current figures on the main track and the class change move him up naturally. While obvious in that role, this is a deep contentious field where one could look for an upset.

#1 STORM’S REFLECTION is worth a look and versatile either way. They present upside in this second start back off the layoff and returning from the 4/7 event, a WEATHER day with poor track conditions from prior rains and the trip had them RUSH into a Very Fast (X_FLOW) early pace from a poor start and prior form from last year fits on par. He has enough early speed to keep a runner like #4 BRUCE BANNER honest upfront and should be the longer odds of the two.

#7 PINBALLER also brings in early speed something to assist stablemate #2 DYNABLUE – one that could be looking for the turf though in form for this fourth start this season and going back to opening day waiting for this one to find the right spot off that sneaky strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ effort. Similar considerations given to #6 ROGUE ELEMENT one that has yet to be in a position to show their best this season and coming into this third start of the meet brings in subtle and progressive form that should be under the radar and has surface versatility.

#8 RED HORNET has some buried form this season and Vanden Berg has sent out some very live runners as of late and this one could follow that current trend. As far as the races this season, he had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE opening (3/24) weekend and following that race wheeled right back with the front wraps added and the race shape on 4/7 was not his ideal and played out on the track and the outcome.