Handicapper Tips & Picks

Our first race of the year for two year olds and it looks like it could feature a couple star fillies. 5-SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER is one of three fillies in this race but it’s not unusual for the boys and girls to face off this early in their career. This $200,000 auction purchase has more drills than the rest of her rivals and her last two were monstrous. She looks like she could be the real deal, at least for now. Been hearing about 3-J Z’S LAST SCHANCE for a couple months. She’s another filly. Her first two drills were bullets and while her gate drill wasn’t as fast as those of top choice, she apparently galloped out strong. She has a sneaky strong pedigree. Could be another good one. 1-GOOD GOD, stablemate of top choice, hasn’t been working nearly as well as his buddy but he does race for the top barn and gets one of the top riders in the irons.

5-TRIBEST ran well in all three local starts but finished behind Peggy’s Best the two times they met. However, she was less than a length behind her rival at the end of last and she seemed to have a little something left while Peggy was gassed late. If the expected speed duel does develop, it could benefit this filly. 6-PEGGY’S WAY was favored in last two but had to settle for second place both times. It’s likely that this speedy filly will be favored again. But she is likely to be pressured on the front end early which could cost her late.  2-MAGGIE E is a five-year-old still seeking her maiden win. She is the quickest member of this field but she’s making her 23^rd start as a maiden. Don’t think six furlongs is her best distance but do think she’ll act as a spoiler and help set the stage for Tribest’s mild late move.

This should be a great race, on or off the turf. It would be the first turf race for many in here but most of these runners also have good main-track form. That being said, have to go with 7-RAVIN’S TOWN. His well-bred $300k purchase finished second in his first two starts, both sprints, but couldn’t keep up with the talented Coach Jimi D when stretched out in a race originally carded for turf. However, his dirt sprint speed figures are the highest of any in here and he’s bred to love the lawn. Should be tough on either surface. 5-MIDTERM ran well in his three local starts. He owns competitive speed. He’s also bred for the weeds and could thrive if this race does stay on grass. 1-YOUNG MISCHIEF could be the sleeper. He faded late in his lone start but he’s as quick as any in here and he owns an impeccable turf pedigree. Not sure how 3-CANYON SHADOW would fare on turf but he did finish second in both of his races on dirt. 

5-KENNESAW will be tough. He hasn’t raced since getting claimed from a win in August which makes him eligible for this race. He isn’t eligible to be claimed (waiver claim) so his connections don’t have to worry about losing him. Guessing he’ll be worth the short price. 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY is back off a layoff and seems like the only possible competition for top choice. He showed little at Gulfstream over the winter but he has often raced well here and he’s never been in this easy. 2-D’ARCHER needed last. He was facing an awfully salty group in his first start of the year and never got close but now he racing with a race under his belt. 

There is so much speed in this field that it almost looks like a quarter horse race. It’s the six and a half furlong distance that could make things interesting. It has to be noted that most of the speed runners haven’t really slowed at the end of six furlongs but the extra sixteenth of a mile came make the difference. I’m going to take a bit of a flyer with 6-SAWYER FOX. He wired the field to break his maiden against Illinois breds last year but it was his come-from-behind second-place finish, on turf, in his only other start that is interesting. This Catalano homebred makes his first start since September but he’s been popping bullet drills at Churchill in preparation for his return. Added to that, he’s racing as a gelding for the first time and he gets a 28% rider in his irons. Can surprise. 1-STRANGE ARRANGE, with eight wins, figures prominently. He’s three-for-three at Hawthorne. Will utilize his fourth different rider for his fourth Hawthorne start. Meets better here but appears to be as fast as anybody. 7-BILL’S HONOR is hard to figure. He has only met Illinois breds so far but he absolutely crushed the last three fields he faced. The speed figure he generated in last is the highest ever achieved by any of these runners. 3-GOOD APPLE has a pair of wins and a second in his three local starts. Like that he seems to finish his races with authority. 8-MOONLIGHT ROAD adds blinkers and could turn out to be the best closer in the race. 

1-COMMAND POINT just ran away from a similar field as the favorite. That was her first start of the year. She should only be stronger after that race and the extra distance of this contest should only enhance her chances. 4-LEA RO was well beaten by top choice in last but she was gaining late in a race that was shorter than her optimum. The extra sixteenth of this race just might make the difference. 2-SUMMER DAY had possibly the worst race of her career in last but know she’s better than that. Can bounce back in her second start of the year.

10-ROCKET HOTSHOT might get the trip, He just missed catching a surprise wire-to-wire winner in last. The pace of this race should set up even better. 6-CARTE BLANCHE finished slightly ahead of top choice in that last race. The seven-pound weight allowance his apprentice jockey gets could make the difference late. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER drops from a $50k claimer to $5. We know what often happens with droppers like that. Be very careful.

If this race stays on turf, 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY looks like the one to beat. He’s making his first start of the year but his barn wins at a lofty 29% rate with runners coming off similar layoffs. He won three of his last four starts but is still eligible because of the race conditions. On dirt 10-CATEGORY TEN might be best. He won his last two races at this level. See no reason that streak couldn’t continue. Wouldn’t like 9-COMEDIC TIMING on the main track but he faced some pretty good runners on turf in the past and had some success. 8-MCMONEY was favored in last two races won by Category Ten. Would think there would be a possibility of making amends if this race did get moved to the main track.