Handicapper Tips & Picks

It is always possible that he’ll lose the race but 4-RIVSONAROLL appears to not only be the best speed in the race but really the only speed in the race. However, three of his four wins came at five and a half and he won only one of his six races at six furlongs. 1-WILDWOOD MINISTRY was claimed from a dull effort downstate. He did own speed in the past but hasn’t shown any of it lately. Might find more early foot for his new barn. 2-BERNIE LOMAX, another recent claim, adds blinkers for the first time in his career. Maybe they a=will allow him to show more early speed though think he’s at his best when he runs at them late.

6-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS drops and heads back to the main track after a terrible outing on the turf. She finished second in a “key” race at this level two starts back. Guessing she’ll be tough in this one. 2-HIP HOP EMMY needed last. She faded quickly after displaying brief speed. But she was quick and carried her speed much farther last year. Seems likely to be gunning for the early lead today. 7-HOLY IMAGE could be competitive if she can be coaxed to get involved early.

Seems strange that 3-GUN RUSH is still eligible for this race. He’s been a monster here, winning six of seven local starts, usually at this distance. Had little impact when shipped to Churchill for last but he’s going to be awfully tough to beat with his return home. 4-DOUBLE THUNDER has had two local starts and was barely beaten in both. His speed figures suggest that he could be competitive with top choice but with that runner likely to get an easy, unchallenged lead this late-running gelding will have his work cut out for him. 6-STRONGER TOGETHER is another capable of grabbing a late share. 

Weird race. Especially weird since this race is on turf and, with one exception, the runners in here that have even raced on turf have been terrible on the surface. But someone has to win. 3-CHURCH PEW is far from a strong choice, she finished 12^th ion her lone turf race but this field is considerably weaker than that. She finished second in last, a race that was originally scheduled for turf. Her barn easily has the best turf numbers. Might be her day. 6-MULSANNE has had the most turf success. She raced on the weeds 11 times and finished third in four of them. But that was long ago in a galaxy far, far away. Recent form says no. 5-MOLLY’S TEMPLE drops into maiden claimers for the first time. Her barn hasn’t been especially effective with turf runners but she does have some breeding and she might turn out to be the best of the speed, helped along by a good speed rider as pilot.

4-MALIBU BRAD seems most logical. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career to make his first local start of the year. Has been training consistently since his last start in January. Races with Lasix for the second time. Races for talented connections and get the top rider in the irons. 5-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX was narrowly beaten at this level in last and he finished in the money in three of his last four starts while facing similar. Last was undoubtedly his best race yet. Could be ready to graduate. 7-PIRATE MARMALADE can surprise. Early on he was meeting better rivals. Then when dropped into maiden claimers for the first time, his saddle slipped. He was flying late in last, making up about five lengths in the stretch alone, but ran out of real estate. Today he’ll get an extra sixteenth mile to work with. That could do the trick.

Leading trainer Latty Rivelli doesn’t claim many but he does pretty well with those he does take. He claimed 5-PROTONIC POWER from last. This gelding finished second in his three previous local dirt starts but could make a late run to get over the hump today. 1-NOVGORAD THE GREAT is worth another look. Like the gameness he showed in last, his first start since August and one of his few on dirt. Has speed, the right rider to utilize it, and the rail. Might not get caught. 7-MEGAN’S HONOR has the versatility to score against any kind of pace. He’s fresh off a third-place finish in a strong state-bred stakes race. One interesting stat: over the last two years, when this trainer and rider team up, they have a 41% win average but this year they have won three of four at Hawthorne.

6-HUNKA BURNING LOVE seems likely to make it two in a row. He won his local debut with authority. His barn continually sends out live runners. Gets the top jock. The extra sixteenth mile of this race should be to his benefit. 2-MON AMIE FUZZIE had to settle for fourth in a much tougher field last out but he did finish second in his previous start and third the time before he raced at Hawthorne. He displayed better than his usual speed in last but he’s been more of a closer in his career. Think he’ll be rolling late. 1-VIOLENT GIGI made up a lot of ground in his first local start of the year but he was simply too far back early to have much of an impact late. Would expect him to race closer to the early pace today and he could have a better outcome.

7-CANDENCIA ships in hoping for a confidence booster. She has been meeting some very tough company since getting claimed by this barn and, until last, holding her own. This is quite possibly the easiest field she ever met on the lawn and though it’s probably not her best distance, her class makes her the one to beat. 9-DI’S SURPRISE dominated maidens in last. That was only her second start and her first on turf. But she’s bred for anything and she does race for the top barn. She might be taking on better but wouldn’t ignore. 6-FACCIA BELLA has often shown flashes of ability but she could be ready to take it to a whole new level. She has moved to the barn of Chris Block and runners debuting for them win 21% of the time. The barn has been hitting at a 31% clip. Figures prominently. 2-WANDA STRONG might need the race. She was in great form when she was last racing but she hasn’t started since August. There’s also a chance that she needs more real estate.

3-COACH JIMI D doesn’t sport lofty speed figures and he’s making his first start against winners but he sure did impress in last, his local debut. Instead of being sent as he was so much of his career, he was given the opportunity to relax and it paid off handsomely. He exploded in the stretch and drew off to win by seven. This field came up pretty tough but think he has what it takes to be competitive. 7-FAMILY TRADITION ships in after winning both races at Fonner. He ran well here last year, finishing second in his two local dirt starts.  He might display better speed with the stretch in distance but he was never sent after the lead when stretched out in the past. 2-CALL ME ICE MAN almost has to go for the lead since there’s no other real speed in this race. This will be the first time he tries to navigate two turns. If he can handle the distance he might never look back.

6-ALL CHOKED UP didn’t run much in last, his first start of the meet, but he’s dropping a few levels to tackle this group. He had two strong races here last year and was competitive a couple times in Kentucky following. But his races this year leave a lot to be desired. Maybe the drop will wake him up. 5-COOL AND COLLECTED beat only one in his first start of the year but that was also his first race on dirt and you could tell he disliked the surface. Should be back on the lawn today. Expect considerable improvement. 12-WE MISS ARLINGTON, stablemate of top choice, will make his debut, if he can draw into the race. Strong turf pedigree helps while meeting the easiest field of his career. He could be tough if he gets in.