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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed June 12th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 TIM TAL returns with a two month freshening for a live barn and in the right spot to compete. In addition, they can sit the right stalking trip off the first flight of runners and the jump on a weaker ML favorite in #2 J. P. RACE one that wheels right back and must back a run from further off the pace without much (if any) edge in this field. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Trip and pace comes back into play with #1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE presenting as the controlling speed in this field and upgraded (X_FLOW) from the most recent starts. With that said, the 58 SpeedRate can assist runners from off the pace and move up #6 REDHILL naturally (as well as #3 STAR NATION) and that pace scenario could present a hurdle for #4 VERACRUZIN. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 BORN FLAWLESS returns to the claiming level and a reasonable claiming spot first off the claim and reset in form cycle for T. Amoss. The timing and chance in class was not necessarily the plan as they did consider running in a $10k starter at 9f last month - a curious spot given the longer distance for a horse that has been more effective sprinting. 

#4 G T FIVE HUNDRED also takes the class drop and another making the right move as he has held his form for the very HOT J. Blair barn, though outclassed against the starter rivals. 

#5 FITZPATRICK was given a "longshot" look on 5/10 when making his second start off the layoff and coming off a BTL and EX - EXCUSE at KEE back in April though still requires a top effort and price compensation. 

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 I HAD THAT ONE TOO is the "fastest" horse in this race and while there are questions coming back off the layoff, she is placed where she can compete. Given that she does have those higher figures sitting in plain slight the ML is unlikely to hold. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 AVALON GIRL projected to IMPROVE off her debut effort last year off the visuals and trip. With the layoff noted since, the connections did have her at OP and entered in a $20k MCL claiming event and could be a positive sign to show up here and in for the higher $50k today. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Not sold on either #4 SALUTE THE STARS making their return with the connections considering running on turf (or looking MTO) for a return; and #4 MIDNIGHT RISING with the PERFECT trip wins at OP and lands in this contentious spot to look for alternatives.

In the past week, I. Correas has sent out four winners in six starters including G1 winner, Didia and could be the right forward trend for #7 SUPER CORINTO making their return today. He showed enough class starting out his career in Sudamericana and in the two starts at GP to send to the Dubai WC (G1) and following has been working through layoffs. He comes into this race with solid return works and J. Ortiz. 

#1 CLASSIC CATCH turned in  B OptixGRADE at the level with a CLOSE in the 4th place outcome; #8 GIANT GAME has back numbers and class to compete with this group and timing wise to get on track as he was not (PRERACE-) on his game back in April at KEE and has worked consistently since. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A competitive group with many that fit on par and with each other in this field. The DROP and distance change to ONE_TURN upgrades #6 YELL COUNTY one that has held their form though not on the MSW level with the added ground needed to clear the condition.