Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 SWEET CRYSTAL figures to be the controlling speed in this race. She has shown run and competitive races since her EX – EXCUSE on debut though not always the most consistent and that is something to consider should a shorter number be the case.

Trainer B. Cook has been sending out live runners as of late and upgrades #7 LOONA LUV in this spot and making a return to Hawthorne. She was racing at this level earlier in the meet and competitive in both spots given the trips, distance and figures that fit on par for this race. Her most recent start at HS Indy earned a B- OptixGRADE and the shift to the outside could present a further positive in terms of working a trip.

The post position change also upgrades #5 JOLIE RULER and with buried form keying off the B- OptixGRADE and figures from earlier in the meet. Those races back on 3/31 and 4/14 were contested with a higher par to move up naturally in this spot. 

Looking at the Plot there is a scenario where the two ML favorites #3 JOCELYN and #4 EMITTAAZ duke it out on the front end both in Quad I side by side above the Surface/Distance ParLine. Granted there is a “best of the speed” scenario from the pair or even run 1-2 would be no surprise in outcome though there could be an opportunity for the right horse in the right time and place. #1 CAIRO SUMMER just about had that scenario here on 4/28 when opened with early money (something to monitor) and turned in a BTL effort making an X_WIDE MOVE and CLOSE to finish together at the wire with Timeless Glory. The effort was taxing/HARD and might have played a role in the outcome when wheeling back in three weeks on 5/19. The rider change today to R. Blanche could signal intent as he was aboard last year (for prior connections) picking up a win and place finish. 

The pace scenario could be similar with #1 BE LUCKY and #5 PURPLE OCTOPUS in this field both sitting as Quad I Squares in today’s field above the ParLine. BE LUCKY comes into this race with upside in the second start back off the layoff and earning a B- OptixGRADE as the BOS, whereas PURPLE OCTOPUS comes into this race with the highest recorded figures in the Past 3 Runlines and significant class relief from the two starts since taking on winners.

#4 HOPPIN JOHN could have their best chance (Quad II Square) with a duel up front to pick up horses and get the jump on the Quad IV rivals. HOPPIN JOHN will make their first start off the claim and on this circuit and one to follow in the paddock as visually he left something to be desired (PRERACE-) last month and still to his credit turned in a B- with the place finish. 

#1 TOUGH LITTLE NUT comes into his race with current form this season with figures and class on par as a contender. The change in circuit and returning to Hawthorne should assist with confidence looking for that second career win. He is in good hands for the connections and weight break as a sophomore against older. The older includes stablemate #2 EYE ON RYE on that made a positive PRERACE+ appearance off the bench three weeks ago and credible effort unable to hold off their chalk stablemate, Battle Scars.

Mojica shifting to TOUGH LITTLE NUT opens up the mount on #4 SENDERO for Cohen and Rivelli as they make their second start back off the layoff and since the barn change. While he has some back class and figures on par at GP as a sophomore, a little more was expected coming off the layoff last month despite the change in surface/distance. 

A competitive race of statebred fillies and mares spotted with intent for this race. Giving up racing experience can be a hurdle though in the case of #6 DREAM NAP she could step up to the plate. She turned in a strong figure first out and the B+ OptixGRADE to suggest she can handle the rise in class and fits with this field looking at the Plot. As that was just her first start she will be tested to repeat though off the visuals she is warranted the chance and a look to do so.

Number wise her Robertson stablemate #4 MISS MIKOS earned the higher figure for the maiden win on 6/1 as well as her 3/24 FG place finish. With that said, she earned the FG figure with the BIAS and the WEATHER impacted TACTIC+ trip last month both recorded a B OptixGRADE compared to the B+ OptixGRADE of DREAM NAP. 

In the Katie M’Lady stakes one could expect #2 OEUVRE to have a major edge in this race, though looking at the Plot, she fits but does not “standout” as expected. The Large Square for #5 KATIE M’LADY is strong and the other “pressure” from her stablemate #3 JOURNEYIST might not play out to a “duel” given the connections.

Like KATIE M’LADY coming off a layoff into this race is the returning #4 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD and could be live even with the presence of her C. Block trained stablemate, OEUVRE given the time off and the return to the route distance. TRAIL RIDGE ROAD broke her maiden impressively (B+) here on debut over this course and 8f distance on yielding turf and has proven herself at this statebred stakes level as well as holding her own against open company. She struggled to get the win against open last year though held her form and figures and had to settle for place behind KATIE M’LADY as she set a Very Slow early and late pace over the main track here last summer. 

#3 CAN MAN DO looks well-spotted here by I. Moreno. This will be their second start off the layoff/cycle, a pattern that has been successful in the past - rather a win or an improved figure as the case here on 9/4 and again second off back in March at TP. His class fits at this starter conditions and class relief from the field and higher race par at CD just over one week ago. Value should also hold in this field with the buried form and lack of “1” in the recent races compared to others in this field. 

The class drop and cutback (SHORTER) in distance is the right move for #2 LEGENDARY PHANTOM in this spot. The distance change is noted for the physicality and also given a “flow upgrade” from the most recent starts exiting the two recent GP races with Very Fast early and late race shapes. He is not a need the lead type when it comes to sprinting keying off the prior turf sprint races and given the complexion of this field that can include other front running “need the lead” types (#1 MAGGIE E)  that could even bring the two FTS in that role along with #5 ALL ABOUT TONIGHT one that has shown early speed as well. 

#6 FOURFIFTYSEVEN has the class edge back at this N1 allowance condition recording a B OptixGRADE in the most recent start and place finish. She broke SLOG from the rail and made a MOVE behind the first run winner and MTO entrant, She Be Sheehan, those two together at the wire. Heading into that 5/26 event she brought upside in her form cycle with the DROP from the higher condition KEE group back in April and projected to IMPROVE off the 5/1 subtle trip as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

#4 JULYNNE has a look on the day with upside from the sophomore season and while more was expected she had some hurdles stretching out for the first time and the TACTIC- paired with the WIDE trip X_FLOW did her no favors and can be given another chance. The distance change here comes into play for #7 COMMISSIONER GULCH one that has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and transferring those numbers makes her a player though based on the public expectations she does not present value in that shorter numbered role. 

#6 STEPHANIE’S CHARM turned in a BTL effort against a tough allowance group on 4/27 at CD and upgraded from that race and on this circuit, a place she has been pointed to entered under similar conditions on 5/26 and withdrawn as the races were moved to the main track. Looking at the Plot for today’s race shape, her RunStyle fits in this group as a Quad II Square.

The race shape also includes a higher SpeedRate and most of the field above the ParLine or left of the Y-Axis, that scenario benefits #3 I’M BOX OFFICE in today’s race shape. As an individual, I’M BOX OFFICE caught the eye (BTL/GREEN) in her first two starts as a sophomore at HS Indy and off the layoff was dominant (B+) breaking her maiden over this course off the bench last June. The two efforts that followed can be upgraded making a MOVE through TRAFFIC on 8/2 and a legitimate EX – EXCUSE (and strong CLOSE) closing out the 2023 season here in August.

 With that higher SpeedRate something to note for the two front runners, #5 GRACELEADSUSHOME and #7 R KATIEBUG that should be kept honest with #1 EMPIRICAL VIEW drawn at the rail though the circuit switch (DROP) appears the right move for her from DiVito to find where she can compete. 

Trainer Brian Cook has had a nice run in recent weeks with multiple Hawthorne victories and sends out 7-LOONA LUV here as she returns from Indiana for this race. She ran decent races in her last couple and looks to be positioned just off the pace in here as she figures to rate and run on in the lane. 6-RARE ACTION ATTACK is a tough one to figure out as she has run well on the grass but now drops to the bottom on the dirt. She rarely wins though, with just three lifetime victories from 53 starts, but her 17 2nd and 3rd place efforts show she can get into the mix. 5-JOLIE RULER has been the most consistent of the bunch as she had a solid 2023 and returns to the level where she was claimed three back. She should be rating in the second flight with Loona Luv early and figures to run on in the lane.

Trainer John Haran is having a solid meet as he sends out favored 4-EMITYAAZ in here. She has run consistent races around two turns and has enough early speed to either inherit the lead or rate close the entire way. She is still looking for her first victory over the track but looks to be sitting in a good spot today. 1-CAIRO SUMMER has posted much improved efforts in her last couple as she rallied late for a near miss two back and raced evenly in her last. With the rail draw and lack of pace in here she could sit closer once again as she could kick on in the lane while at a price. 6-MAIDEN ROCK ran a really nice race in her first start of the meet and closed well while sprinting last time out. She does tend to rate a bit closer around two turns which could benefit her in a race lacking of pace.

With a pair in here likely to show speed, 4-HOPPIN JOHN could get the trip as he figures to rate mid-pack early and rally in the lane. He closed well last out and gets a 16th more today as he runs for the new barn. 5-PURPLE OCTOPUS was claimed off the maiden score three back and followed that race with a good second while facing better two back. He shipped to Churchill to run on Derby day but was in too tough and now drops back down below the level of the claim for this race today. 1-BE LUCKY has speed from the inside as he comes out of the same race with Hoppin John last out. Although he made the top in that race they didn't go overly quick upfront and he wasn't able to hold on. Let's see if he is sent again today or looks to rate and run on late.

Even though she was defeated by Dream Nap on May 18, 4-MISS MIKOS had an excuse in that race as she stumbled at the break and still battled. She made amends in her last while stalking and running on late. Let's see if she looks to clear and try to take this race on the front end. 6-DREAM NAP got a perfect trip in her debut as she battled the pace and drew clear late. Curious to see what the plan is here as her stablemate has a similar running style but she has worked well toward the return and could easily repeat her last performance. 7-REBA ATTACK has three good second place efforts at this level on the meet and will eventually break through for that victory. She should be able to sit just behind the early leaders in here and figures to run on in the lane.

If trainer Chris Block hadn't said he thought 2-OEUVRE was a better two turn turf horse in his mind than she was a dirt sprinter after her score in the Third Chance last out, I probably would have selected this race's namesake on top. But the way Oeuvre won in that spot was so easy as she just costed along behind a game Purr Sea and easily took over in the lane without being asked while carrying 128 lbs. The winner of nearly $850k lifetime gets assigned 130 lbs. in here but she is deserving of that respect with 16 victories from 28 lifetime starts. 5-KATIE M'LADY gets to run in the race named for her as she has been as solid as they comes on the Illinois circuit. She's never been worse than second in 10 career turf starts and looks to continue that trend as she should be dictating things on the front end. Let's see if she is good enough to hold off Oeuvre as she gets 6 lbs relief from that one in here. 4-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD is respectable in her own right as she chased Katie M'Lady in three consecutive starts last summer. She comes off the layoff into this spot but has worked well and should be picking off horses late.

Named for a really cool and honest racehorse in his career in Big Sport, we get a field of seven for leg one of this series. A horse that was impressive last out returns as 1-RED LABEL runs once again for trainer Harry Lynch. Mojica rode him perfectly in his last and with all the pace in this race he figures to get a very similar trip. 2-BASEBALL POLITICS has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. I'm actually hoping for the trip from last April when he was able to rate and rally in the lane for the victory. He does come in off back to back scores, both over off tracks, as the trip could dictate his outcome. 6-MCVICKER runs for Vanden Berg as you figured she would have an entrant in the race named for a horse she trained. McVicker stayed in from a race taken off the turf a few weeks ago and didn't disappoint as he made the top and never looked back. The five furlongs suits as he could try to steal this race on the front end.

The intent to try to get back on the grass is key for me with 8-RED RIZZLER as he improved in his last in a race taken off the turf and drops back in for a tag in here. The Rosin barn has been solid on the meet and this one has worked well since his last start. Expect him to rate early and run on late. 6-WILLIE BIRD debuts for Rivelli as he has worked consistently into this race. He gets Lasix for the first out as I expect we see blinkers on him too, with the intent to show some speed at first asking. 9-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM tries the turf sprint after some decent efforts around two turns. He did sprint on the dirt late in 2022 and early in 2023 with some decent outcomes as I expect he sits mid-pack in here and runs on in the stretch.

Based on numbers alone, 7-COMMISSIONER GULCH is a standout in this spot. The only question for her is how she handles the stretch to two turns/ She has never been worse than third in five Hawthorne starts and ran a good third behind Oeuvre in the Third Chance last out. In here she figures to look to clear from the outside and try to dictate things on the front end.  3-CALISUE was claimed for just $8k three starts back and followed it up with a pair of runner-up efforts at this level. She should get a similar trip once again in here as she figures to run on late. 2-MO SMOKING ran a good fourth in her start two back at this level before dropping down for a victory in her last. She's the other that should be able to show some speed in this spot as she steps up for the new connections today.

A horse that seems to be able to dictate where she wants to sit in a race, 6-STEPHANIE'S CHARM may look to rate a bit closer early in this spot. She has closed on the grass in recent start but some of those came against tougher company than what she will see in here. I expect she is only 3-4 lengths off the early pace as she will look to take over at the top of the lane. 3-I'M BOX OFFICE makes her first start of the year as she ran some solid races on the grass last summer as well. She is working well toward the return as the only question is if she will need a race back off the rest. 1-EMPIRICAL VIEW has tactical speed as she makes her second start of the year. She was in tough at Churchill in her last but the Keeneland race last fall was a good one as she chased and ran on late. That trip will put her in contention with these today.

4-SWEET CRYSTAL probably needed last. It was her first start since August. She’s facing more experienced rivals but she looks like the best speed and the cutback to five and a half furlongs could make a big difference in how long she lasts. 5-JOLIE RULER is probably the most “successful” runner in here, with nine wins and over $137k in earnings. Her recent dirt speed figures are the highest of any in here and she’s consistently in the hunt. But she hasn’t seemed to finish with authority for a while. Might not be able to catch the speed. 6-RARE ACTION ATTACK takes a much-needed drop in class while moving to the main track. The majority of her recent career has been spent on turf but the majority of her success came on the main track. However, she hasn’t won on dirt since 2021.

4-EMITYAZZ hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in nearly two years but this could finally be her spot. Although she owns decent speed she’s unlikely to get the early lead. But the only runner faster than her is stretching out after winning a sprint only seven days ago. That filly did win her only other two-turn dirt start by eight but there’s no guarantee that she recovered fully from her most recent effort. Could run out of gas. 3-JOCELYN drew off to what appeared to be an easy sprint win in her last start. However, that race was only last Sunday and she’s stretching out for this start. She has a good chance to build a commanding lead as the only real speed in the field but there’s no guarantee that she’ll be able to sustain it off only brief rest. 1-CAIRO SUMMER raced in fourth for almost the entire trip in last at this level and finished well behind top choice but she made a bold late run in her previous start and finished second only a half length back. Gets an apprentice rider with his seven-pound weight allowance for this race. That could easily help.

Weird things happening in this race. Obviously off the drop, 5-PURPLE OCTOPUS is the one to beat. He was claimed from a dominating low-level maiden win in his first local start, then finished second in a $25k NW2 in his next start before being sent to CD to get trounced in a $100k optional claimer. Now he’s dropping to this $5k level. Not sure what is happening here and really couldn’t recommend betting on, or against, him. 4-HOPPIN JOHN is another “strange” entrant in this race. He was claimed by a high-profile trainer for $5k in last and this barn just doesn’t run many at such a low level and can’t remember them ever claiming a horse at that price. But…1-BE LUCKY does tend to tire but he has speed, the rail, and he’s making his second start off the layoff. 

Very nice race with all runners having a decent chance. First of all, even though I doubt if it will rain enough for this race to move to the main track, have to consider 9-VALIANT WEST just in case it does get switched. He’s entered for the main track only and would probably hold a considerable advantage over all the turf runners if this race does get moved to dirt. On turf, 1-TOUGH LITTLE NUT could be a tough little nut. He’s looking for his second win after graduating here in his debut back in August but he’s been meeting some pretty tough company on a tougher circuit. This could be the confidence builder he needs. 2-EYE ON RY might not get as much betting action as top choice but think he has an equal chance. Ge’s easily the quickest member of this field. He finished second after leading much of the way in his first start for this barn but that was his first race off the layoff and he came right back with a bullet four-furlong drill. Might not get caught. 4-SENDERO rates respect. He showed little in his first race for this barn but that was a dirt sprint originally scheduled for turf. This race should be back on the lawn. His barn sports a super win percentage of 41% with runners making their second starts after a layoff though only 4% with sprinters stretching out. 7-SHADY MCGEE finished second in his last two Indiana starts and boasts speed figures in the same neighborhood as the top pair. 

6-DREAM NAP might hold a slight edge. She graduated in her debut, surviving a hard-fought battle from the start. She’s meeting plenty of other speed, including from her stablemate but appreciate that her rider chose her over the other Robertson-trained runner after riding them both. 4-MISS MIKOS showed little in her lone start last year but she’s been in great form this year since she’s a year older and now allowed to race with Lasix. Morning-line favorite races for the same barn as top choice. She was beaten by that rival two starts back but she did stumble at the start. Then she came back to graduate in her next start. Plus, experience could be what separates them at the finish. 3-DEVIL has always been highly regarded but it took her eight races to break her maiden. She did finish third in last, her first start against winners. She likes the front end also but her best race, her maiden win, came when she raced off the pace early and finished with a flourish.

It’s almost like having a memorial race for a living person. The Katie M’Lady Handicap has, as one of the entrants, Katie M’Lady. Hmmm. Anyway, they are going to have a tough time beating a different member of this field. 2-OEUVRE has been nothing short of sensational. She is approaching $900,000 in earnings, with wins on both turf and dirt. She won six of her 13 turf races while scoring in 10 of her 13 starts on dirt. Because this is a “handicap”, she will be handicapped by carrying 130 pounds but she was able to handle 128 a couple weeks ago easily. If she were to lose, it would probably come at the hands (hooves) of the aforementioned KATIE M'LADY. This fleet young lady is likely to be sent right to the lead. She also owns six turf victories from only 10 starts on the surface. However, she hasn’t raced since August and despite being superb off layoffs, she’s going to have to be better than superb to beat top choice. 4-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD seemed so promin=sing in 2022 but she has managed to win only one race since then and that was her first race of 2023 in January. Still, we know she has the talent. Maybe her late run will get her close.

The pace of this race could favor 1-RED LABEL. After a lackluster 2023, he has now won three of his five 2024 races, including last. Probably meets slightly tougher here and many are also in good form but it’s also likely that many could vie for the front end, setting things up for his late move. Both 2-BASEBALL POLITICS and 6-MCVICKER won their last two; McVicker here and Baseball Politics downstate. Both have to be considered. But they both want the lead and seem likely to be joined by a few others desiring the front end. 3-CAN MAN DO might truly be the quickest of these but he has been running out of gas in recent races.

2-LEGENDARY PHANTOM drops and turns back in distance. He’s been tiring in races since getting claimed by this barn but he’ll be meeting easier in this spot. Had a couple good turf sprints when he was just getting started racing. Could improve greatly now that he’s back at it. 9-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has had plenty of turf experience but all those races were at a mile or more. Turns back in distance and adds blinkers, both strong moves for this barn. 6-WILLIE BIRD debuts for the top barn. He’s bred to like turf and to really relish the distance. The barn wins with 24% first timers. 4-ALL ABOUT TONIGHT figures prominently. He’s dropping in class and returning to turf for the first time this year. His previous turf races were at Saratoga, Kentucky Downs and Keeneland so they were probably better than they looked on paper. 4-BLACK RUSSIAN made a deceptively good middle move in a turf route in his first start on that surface. With the turn back in distance a move like that could make him a late threat, especially useful in vertical gimmicks.

3-CALISUE was claimed for $8k three races back but has handled the jump in class and was narrowly defeated in her two allowance races since, finishing second in both. There appears to be more than enough speed in this field to set up for her late run. This highly consistent filly could earn her first local victory. 7-COMMISSIONER GULCH just finished third to Oeuvre in a stakes race. She didn’t get close there but has a far better chance here. Stretches out for the first time. Figures to display better early speed. 6-FOURFIFTYSEVEN was heavily favored in her local debut but was unable to catch the lone speed. Stretches back out for this race. Might be able to make amends.

Another tough turf race. Can make a legitimate case for most members of the field. I’m wondering if 7-R KATIEBUG can steal this on the lead. This talented filly, full sister to Katie M’Lady, possesses the same kind of deadly speed as her sister. She’s only had two turf races but barely lost them both. Adds blinkers which could help to keep her mind on the game. Her rider has wired fields like this in the past. Might never look back. 1-EMPIRICAL VIEW has arguably faced the toughest fields. She won her turf debut and then ran back to finish a strong fast-closing fifth in her final start of the year. Her first race of this year was simply too tough. She’ll find the going far easier today. 2-WANDA STRONG wheels back quickly. She only split the field in her first start of the year but that race was obviously too short. Stretches to a far better distance. Should be a major player.