Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 SWEET CRYSTAL figures to be the controlling speed in this race. She has shown run and competitive races since her EX – EXCUSE on debut though not always the most consistent and that is something to consider should a shorter number be the case.

Trainer B. Cook has been sending out live runners as of late and upgrades #7 LOONA LUV in this spot and making a return to Hawthorne. She was racing at this level earlier in the meet and competitive in both spots given the trips, distance and figures that fit on par for this race. Her most recent start at HS Indy earned a B- OptixGRADE and the shift to the outside could present a further positive in terms of working a trip.

The post position change also upgrades #5 JOLIE RULER and with buried form keying off the B- OptixGRADE and figures from earlier in the meet. Those races back on 3/31 and 4/14 were contested with a higher par to move up naturally in this spot. 

Looking at the Plot there is a scenario where the two ML favorites #3 JOCELYN and #4 EMITTAAZ duke it out on the front end both in Quad I side by side above the Surface/Distance ParLine. Granted there is a “best of the speed” scenario from the pair or even run 1-2 would be no surprise in outcome though there could be an opportunity for the right horse in the right time and place. #1 CAIRO SUMMER just about had that scenario here on 4/28 when opened with early money (something to monitor) and turned in a BTL effort making an X_WIDE MOVE and CLOSE to finish together at the wire with Timeless Glory. The effort was taxing/HARD and might have played a role in the outcome when wheeling back in three weeks on 5/19. The rider change today to R. Blanche could signal intent as he was aboard last year (for prior connections) picking up a win and place finish. 

The pace scenario could be similar with #1 BE LUCKY and #5 PURPLE OCTOPUS in this field both sitting as Quad I Squares in today’s field above the ParLine. BE LUCKY comes into this race with upside in the second start back off the layoff and earning a B- OptixGRADE as the BOS, whereas PURPLE OCTOPUS comes into this race with the highest recorded figures in the Past 3 Runlines and significant class relief from the two starts since taking on winners.

#4 HOPPIN JOHN could have their best chance (Quad II Square) with a duel up front to pick up horses and get the jump on the Quad IV rivals. HOPPIN JOHN will make their first start off the claim and on this circuit and one to follow in the paddock as visually he left something to be desired (PRERACE-) last month and still to his credit turned in a B- with the place finish. 

#1 TOUGH LITTLE NUT comes into his race with current form this season with figures and class on par as a contender. The change in circuit and returning to Hawthorne should assist with confidence looking for that second career win. He is in good hands for the connections and weight break as a sophomore against older. The older includes stablemate #2 EYE ON RYE on that made a positive PRERACE+ appearance off the bench three weeks ago and credible effort unable to hold off their chalk stablemate, Battle Scars.

Mojica shifting to TOUGH LITTLE NUT opens up the mount on #4 SENDERO for Cohen and Rivelli as they make their second start back off the layoff and since the barn change. While he has some back class and figures on par at GP as a sophomore, a little more was expected coming off the layoff last month despite the change in surface/distance. 

A competitive race of statebred fillies and mares spotted with intent for this race. Giving up racing experience can be a hurdle though in the case of #6 DREAM NAP she could step up to the plate. She turned in a strong figure first out and the B+ OptixGRADE to suggest she can handle the rise in class and fits with this field looking at the Plot. As that was just her first start she will be tested to repeat though off the visuals she is warranted the chance and a look to do so.

Number wise her Robertson stablemate #4 MISS MIKOS earned the higher figure for the maiden win on 6/1 as well as her 3/24 FG place finish. With that said, she earned the FG figure with the BIAS and the WEATHER impacted TACTIC+ trip last month both recorded a B OptixGRADE compared to the B+ OptixGRADE of DREAM NAP. 

In the Katie M’Lady stakes one could expect #2 OEUVRE to have a major edge in this race, though looking at the Plot, she fits but does not “standout” as expected. The Large Square for #5 KATIE M’LADY is strong and the other “pressure” from her stablemate #3 JOURNEYIST might not play out to a “duel” given the connections.

Like KATIE M’LADY coming off a layoff into this race is the returning #4 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD and could be live even with the presence of her C. Block trained stablemate, OEUVRE given the time off and the return to the route distance. TRAIL RIDGE ROAD broke her maiden impressively (B+) here on debut over this course and 8f distance on yielding turf and has proven herself at this statebred stakes level as well as holding her own against open company. She struggled to get the win against open last year though held her form and figures and had to settle for place behind KATIE M’LADY as she set a Very Slow early and late pace over the main track here last summer. 

#3 CAN MAN DO looks well-spotted here by I. Moreno. This will be their second start off the layoff/cycle, a pattern that has been successful in the past - rather a win or an improved figure as the case here on 9/4 and again second off back in March at TP. His class fits at this starter conditions and class relief from the field and higher race par at CD just over one week ago. Value should also hold in this field with the buried form and lack of “1” in the recent races compared to others in this field. 

The class drop and cutback (SHORTER) in distance is the right move for #2 LEGENDARY PHANTOM in this spot. The distance change is noted for the physicality and also given a “flow upgrade” from the most recent starts exiting the two recent GP races with Very Fast early and late race shapes. He is not a need the lead type when it comes to sprinting keying off the prior turf sprint races and given the complexion of this field that can include other front running “need the lead” types (#1 MAGGIE E)  that could even bring the two FTS in that role along with #5 ALL ABOUT TONIGHT one that has shown early speed as well. 

#6 FOURFIFTYSEVEN has the class edge back at this N1 allowance condition recording a B OptixGRADE in the most recent start and place finish. She broke SLOG from the rail and made a MOVE behind the first run winner and MTO entrant, She Be Sheehan, those two together at the wire. Heading into that 5/26 event she brought upside in her form cycle with the DROP from the higher condition KEE group back in April and projected to IMPROVE off the 5/1 subtle trip as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

#4 JULYNNE has a look on the day with upside from the sophomore season and while more was expected she had some hurdles stretching out for the first time and the TACTIC- paired with the WIDE trip X_FLOW did her no favors and can be given another chance. The distance change here comes into play for #7 COMMISSIONER GULCH one that has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and transferring those numbers makes her a player though based on the public expectations she does not present value in that shorter numbered role. 

#6 STEPHANIE’S CHARM turned in a BTL effort against a tough allowance group on 4/27 at CD and upgraded from that race and on this circuit, a place she has been pointed to entered under similar conditions on 5/26 and withdrawn as the races were moved to the main track. Looking at the Plot for today’s race shape, her RunStyle fits in this group as a Quad II Square.

The race shape also includes a higher SpeedRate and most of the field above the ParLine or left of the Y-Axis, that scenario benefits #3 I’M BOX OFFICE in today’s race shape. As an individual, I’M BOX OFFICE caught the eye (BTL/GREEN) in her first two starts as a sophomore at HS Indy and off the layoff was dominant (B+) breaking her maiden over this course off the bench last June. The two efforts that followed can be upgraded making a MOVE through TRAFFIC on 8/2 and a legitimate EX – EXCUSE (and strong CLOSE) closing out the 2023 season here in August.

 With that higher SpeedRate something to note for the two front runners, #5 GRACELEADSUSHOME and #7 R KATIEBUG that should be kept honest with #1 EMPIRICAL VIEW drawn at the rail though the circuit switch (DROP) appears the right move for her from DiVito to find where she can compete.