Handicapper Tips & Picks

4-SWEET CRYSTAL probably needed last. It was her first start since August. She’s facing more experienced rivals but she looks like the best speed and the cutback to five and a half furlongs could make a big difference in how long she lasts. 5-JOLIE RULER is probably the most “successful” runner in here, with nine wins and over $137k in earnings. Her recent dirt speed figures are the highest of any in here and she’s consistently in the hunt. But she hasn’t seemed to finish with authority for a while. Might not be able to catch the speed. 6-RARE ACTION ATTACK takes a much-needed drop in class while moving to the main track. The majority of her recent career has been spent on turf but the majority of her success came on the main track. However, she hasn’t won on dirt since 2021.

4-EMITYAZZ hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in nearly two years but this could finally be her spot. Although she owns decent speed she’s unlikely to get the early lead. But the only runner faster than her is stretching out after winning a sprint only seven days ago. That filly did win her only other two-turn dirt start by eight but there’s no guarantee that she recovered fully from her most recent effort. Could run out of gas. 3-JOCELYN drew off to what appeared to be an easy sprint win in her last start. However, that race was only last Sunday and she’s stretching out for this start. She has a good chance to build a commanding lead as the only real speed in the field but there’s no guarantee that she’ll be able to sustain it off only brief rest. 1-CAIRO SUMMER raced in fourth for almost the entire trip in last at this level and finished well behind top choice but she made a bold late run in her previous start and finished second only a half length back. Gets an apprentice rider with his seven-pound weight allowance for this race. That could easily help.

Weird things happening in this race. Obviously off the drop, 5-PURPLE OCTOPUS is the one to beat. He was claimed from a dominating low-level maiden win in his first local start, then finished second in a $25k NW2 in his next start before being sent to CD to get trounced in a $100k optional claimer. Now he’s dropping to this $5k level. Not sure what is happening here and really couldn’t recommend betting on, or against, him. 4-HOPPIN JOHN is another “strange” entrant in this race. He was claimed by a high-profile trainer for $5k in last and this barn just doesn’t run many at such a low level and can’t remember them ever claiming a horse at that price. But…1-BE LUCKY does tend to tire but he has speed, the rail, and he’s making his second start off the layoff. 

Very nice race with all runners having a decent chance. First of all, even though I doubt if it will rain enough for this race to move to the main track, have to consider 9-VALIANT WEST just in case it does get switched. He’s entered for the main track only and would probably hold a considerable advantage over all the turf runners if this race does get moved to dirt. On turf, 1-TOUGH LITTLE NUT could be a tough little nut. He’s looking for his second win after graduating here in his debut back in August but he’s been meeting some pretty tough company on a tougher circuit. This could be the confidence builder he needs. 2-EYE ON RY might not get as much betting action as top choice but think he has an equal chance. Ge’s easily the quickest member of this field. He finished second after leading much of the way in his first start for this barn but that was his first race off the layoff and he came right back with a bullet four-furlong drill. Might not get caught. 4-SENDERO rates respect. He showed little in his first race for this barn but that was a dirt sprint originally scheduled for turf. This race should be back on the lawn. His barn sports a super win percentage of 41% with runners making their second starts after a layoff though only 4% with sprinters stretching out. 7-SHADY MCGEE finished second in his last two Indiana starts and boasts speed figures in the same neighborhood as the top pair. 

6-DREAM NAP might hold a slight edge. She graduated in her debut, surviving a hard-fought battle from the start. She’s meeting plenty of other speed, including from her stablemate but appreciate that her rider chose her over the other Robertson-trained runner after riding them both. 4-MISS MIKOS showed little in her lone start last year but she’s been in great form this year since she’s a year older and now allowed to race with Lasix. Morning-line favorite races for the same barn as top choice. She was beaten by that rival two starts back but she did stumble at the start. Then she came back to graduate in her next start. Plus, experience could be what separates them at the finish. 3-DEVIL has always been highly regarded but it took her eight races to break her maiden. She did finish third in last, her first start against winners. She likes the front end also but her best race, her maiden win, came when she raced off the pace early and finished with a flourish.

It’s almost like having a memorial race for a living person. The Katie M’Lady Handicap has, as one of the entrants, Katie M’Lady. Hmmm. Anyway, they are going to have a tough time beating a different member of this field. 2-OEUVRE has been nothing short of sensational. She is approaching $900,000 in earnings, with wins on both turf and dirt. She won six of her 13 turf races while scoring in 10 of her 13 starts on dirt. Because this is a “handicap”, she will be handicapped by carrying 130 pounds but she was able to handle 128 a couple weeks ago easily. If she were to lose, it would probably come at the hands (hooves) of the aforementioned KATIE M'LADY. This fleet young lady is likely to be sent right to the lead. She also owns six turf victories from only 10 starts on the surface. However, she hasn’t raced since August and despite being superb off layoffs, she’s going to have to be better than superb to beat top choice. 4-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD seemed so promin=sing in 2022 but she has managed to win only one race since then and that was her first race of 2023 in January. Still, we know she has the talent. Maybe her late run will get her close.

The pace of this race could favor 1-RED LABEL. After a lackluster 2023, he has now won three of his five 2024 races, including last. Probably meets slightly tougher here and many are also in good form but it’s also likely that many could vie for the front end, setting things up for his late move. Both 2-BASEBALL POLITICS and 6-MCVICKER won their last two; McVicker here and Baseball Politics downstate. Both have to be considered. But they both want the lead and seem likely to be joined by a few others desiring the front end. 3-CAN MAN DO might truly be the quickest of these but he has been running out of gas in recent races.

2-LEGENDARY PHANTOM drops and turns back in distance. He’s been tiring in races since getting claimed by this barn but he’ll be meeting easier in this spot. Had a couple good turf sprints when he was just getting started racing. Could improve greatly now that he’s back at it. 9-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has had plenty of turf experience but all those races were at a mile or more. Turns back in distance and adds blinkers, both strong moves for this barn. 6-WILLIE BIRD debuts for the top barn. He’s bred to like turf and to really relish the distance. The barn wins with 24% first timers. 4-ALL ABOUT TONIGHT figures prominently. He’s dropping in class and returning to turf for the first time this year. His previous turf races were at Saratoga, Kentucky Downs and Keeneland so they were probably better than they looked on paper. 4-BLACK RUSSIAN made a deceptively good middle move in a turf route in his first start on that surface. With the turn back in distance a move like that could make him a late threat, especially useful in vertical gimmicks.

3-CALISUE was claimed for $8k three races back but has handled the jump in class and was narrowly defeated in her two allowance races since, finishing second in both. There appears to be more than enough speed in this field to set up for her late run. This highly consistent filly could earn her first local victory. 7-COMMISSIONER GULCH just finished third to Oeuvre in a stakes race. She didn’t get close there but has a far better chance here. Stretches out for the first time. Figures to display better early speed. 6-FOURFIFTYSEVEN was heavily favored in her local debut but was unable to catch the lone speed. Stretches back out for this race. Might be able to make amends.

Another tough turf race. Can make a legitimate case for most members of the field. I’m wondering if 7-R KATIEBUG can steal this on the lead. This talented filly, full sister to Katie M’Lady, possesses the same kind of deadly speed as her sister. She’s only had two turf races but barely lost them both. Adds blinkers which could help to keep her mind on the game. Her rider has wired fields like this in the past. Might never look back. 1-EMPIRICAL VIEW has arguably faced the toughest fields. She won her turf debut and then ran back to finish a strong fast-closing fifth in her final start of the year. Her first race of this year was simply too tough. She’ll find the going far easier today. 2-WANDA STRONG wheels back quickly. She only split the field in her first start of the year but that race was obviously too short. Stretches to a far better distance. Should be a major player.