Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 C F V BULLET fits today’s race shape and placed where he can compete. He was claimed back in April for $30k at KEE and the aggressive “first off” placement along with an EX – EXCUSE (TROUBLES+) impacted the outcome closing weekend at OP. To his credit he showed interest making a WIDE MOVE. He was not as effective earlier this month at CD though the race shape had minimal change in running order with the top three together at the wire to suggest he can step up off that and his overall form should translate naturally. The race shape should also play to his RunStyle looking at the Plot and despite the recent change in distance, he has sprint races that fit from his MSW days. 

This is a competitive MSW event and the return to Hawthorne for #4 KING ANTHONY for a sophomore debut makes him a fit as the likely favorite. He debuted under similar conditions last season as a juvenile and with each race showed progression though struggled on class with the circuit switch closing out 2023. While KING ANTHONY is getting a “later” start to the meet, that sets up with the recent published works, a consistent series to have him race ready starting back in April.

The two older runners return from the 6/2 common race and even the 5/4 event where #7 YOUNG MISCHIEF debuted and #6 LA PERFECT BEE was a late scratch. LA PERFECT BEE debuting earlier this month recorded a B OptixGRADE and will pick up Lasix today, something that might not impact performance as much as a change as he has been very WARM in those two “starts” on the track.

Rivelli has the pair in this race and will be interesting with #1 WILLIE BIRD wheeling right back from an “educational” (GREEN) debut last week though more concerning than the timing is the rise in class. His entry in this race could suggest intent for stablemate #5 TALLAPOOSA making their debut today with D. Cohen aboard. 

Some value could be found with #5 RICHIESONAROLL, a contender in this event. He shows up into this race with the lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines to suggest current form and figures on par. He can be upgraded from the recent WIDE trips and holds the win under a similar higher par from December at the FG as well as the 4/21 local allowance.

As far as #1 WENT WEST he was dominant (B+) with the win at this level two weeks ago and will look for that to translate here. While the GRADE suggest he can take the rise in class, he will be tested to do so as today’s OFR is higher than the event last out and is on a quick turnaround at what projects to be a shorter number today. #2 ELI’S PROMISE could be upgraded from that 6/8 common race with the subtle change in distance and race shape that could allow him to carry his speed on the front end, or even rate slightly as a style that has been effective in the past and could be utilized with the rider change to A. Centeno.

#6 COMISKEY PARK raced under a similar par last month at CD and the C+ OptixGRADE is lighter for a contender, however he was making his first start of the cycle that day and coming off a HARD, taxing effort with the win in April at FAN that required recovery and more time between starts. 

Rivelli has a pair in this race and things probably not going as planned as both race first time for the tag today. #6 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK was picked up last year after a dominant (B+) debut win and solid figure. He was not as effective in a contentious stakes race, though that event also brought a quick end to a brief 2023 season. They returned off the bench last month and made a positive PRERACE+ appearance; in running, they were unable to stick around late though did show an early WIDE RUSH before losing ground in that four horse field. They raced without hind shoes and something to mention that could change here.

As far as #4 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE he will race for the higher tag allowance as an IL-bred and in his first start against winners. He caught at solid rival in Good Apple on opening day when making his debut and lost his race (WASTED, GATE) before it even started. He rebounded with the win returning three weeks later though has been off two months since and now the connections are at the least opening the door to move on from them.

#2 TIZ THE TALE will make a belated return and first start against winners. He did race for the tag breaking his maiden in the second start and has tried to run under similar $32-25k N2 conditions since keying off a scratch at DMR in the summer of 2022 and again last December at LRC. 

#1 DOROTHY CROWFOOT has a big look wheeling right back just as she did making a return from the layoff in a seasonal debut three weeks ago. Despite the outcome, she was “race ready” off the bench ran a good race as she was part of the X_FLOW early pace and stayed on in a BLANKET at wire. #5 BEEHIVE was also part of the BLANKET finish, though FLOW-aided in the process and of the two returning here.

#6 SALLY’S SURPRISE is lighter for this level to make a contender case for, though fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot to keep in the mix. The Large Square for #3 TU CHA is also noted and favorable as she has been given the 45-days since the HARD albeit strong B+ effort last early last month at HS Indy.

The placement is not ideal for #2 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY though she presents overall upside (PREP) and worth a follow when placed from her means according to her abilities. 

#1 DRAGON DREW makes his return in this spot and to the turf with intent on the day. B. Cook has been sending out live runners and DRAGON DREW holds the rail, legit early speed (though does not “need the lead” and there is other speed on the outside) back at his preferred surface/distance and with Chris Emigh aboard on Chris Emigh Day!

Tough to say who has been waiting longer for a return to the TURF, this handicapper or #4 PINBALLER. Going back to the first part of the first part of 2023 visually PINBALLER gave the TURF visuals and had just the pair of grass races. In each start he finished out of the top three, however from a number standpoint recorded his higher numbers of the year on the grass and those numbers translate in today’s race and with today’s rivals and in line with #7 SIMPLE LOGIC and PINBALLER should be much higher of those two.

#6 GETTING PAID looks live in this spot for the connections (rider C. Emigh) and in today’s race shape as a Q1 Square that does not “need the lead” to work a trip. He also returns from a B+ OptixGRADE to suggest they can hand a rise in class, which is key with a higher par today. While their tactical speed is an advantage they are not “lone” in that role with #2 HURTS SO BAD along the inside, #7 IRONMAN RICHIE and #9 RIVZONAROLL looking to rebound here after coming up short as the favorite and now the drop (sus) comes into play.

#8 CODETOWIN should move forward in his second start off the layoff and under a similar race par from the 5/26 event. Going back to that day, he returned with the front wraps added and some reservations with that visual though to their credit made a competitive WIDE MOVE and the STRETCH even in an extra half-furlong is a benefit.

 #4 FUTURE VISION is a slight upgrade wheeling back for today’s race. He was on a progressive pattern in the sprints and finds a similar “Fire” Contention when finishing show on 6/1 though moves to a Square on both Plots (a change from that day) paired with a higher SpeedRate today.

#3 STORM BORN should present too much value to ignore in this spot. Class wise this is a rise from the main track races this season though has back turf number under similar conditions that fit on par and his current form has held coming into this race.

While STORM BORN is not the “most likely” winner, the horses in that “most likely” role have some questions. The current form for #1 RIVER REDEMPTION must improve, though arguably this would be the time and place second off the layoff; #4 RED HORNET has had some EX _ EXCUSES this season and the connections looking for the turf to present intent on that front, however he has shown some distance limitations at times and needs things his way as well as top effort to win.

#6 BAKENEKO might be as logical as the other two without coming into this race as obvious. He is picking up a key rider change, and class change for this second start on the turf. Today’s conditions were the plan for him back on 5/4 with intent on the day as he was in a second off form cycle pattern and overall did improve with the WIDE trip on the main track. His “every other” pattern is a further positive and should be sitting on a top effort and looking for that belated win for H. Rodriguez.

#8 DYNABLUE also presents upside from the 5/4 common race and the class drop from the higher claiming even last weekend. His form has remained consistent with turf form and figures that fit on par and looking at the Plot can work out a trip in today’s race shape.

Looking to play against the “most likely” in this event, #11 ROGUE ELEMENT is another “longshot” to keep on the radar. He has back numbers that fit on par and on the turf with early speed in those races which also can be seen visually on the Plot. His current form does not look like much “on paper” however looking at the Past 3 Runlines the trips/form cycle show there is more to the story and even three weeks ago putting in a CLOSE and can move up in the right spot. 

Looking at the Plot in the finale, the early pace projects to be honest with #5 MAD DRAGON and #7 WINGING WAYS both shown above the ParLine and Circles (lacking finishing ability) to assist the “second flight” to work a trip. #2 KENNESAW from the inside should save ground to sit first run on that pair and perhaps the key conditioning as well coming back second off the layoff. #9 LIMA ZULA should find a similar tracking position as he also sits in Quad I and from the outside should move over with ease to track clear with first run.

#1 IDEA MAN can also find the right trip in today’s race shape and coming into this race with current form, the figures and GRADES in the current form cycle. He appeared “live” with sneaky money on 5/26 and had a subtle trip, something they could look to correct here with the rider change and a little more time between starts. IDEA MAN should have the jump on the other “closers” #4 TWO COOKIE RULE and #6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER.