Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 D’ARCHER is the one true E/EP runner in this field and on that alone could present the pace advantage in the shorter 5.5f distance and separation in this competitive compact field. He comes into this race with form in the third start off the layoff and some subtle trips playing a role in the outcome and perhaps the reason for another rider change, and some intent with that move as O. Mojica jumps aboard. The other key will be the visuals as D’ARCHER has returned this season with the front wraps on and a removal could signal further positive intent. 

#2 IRISH SPARK will be obvious here on the class drop along, a move that brings her up naturally in this field and in contrast to the others that have run for a tag. She can be upgraded from the races this season specifically the 6/1 race given the WEATHER conditions playing a role on the track making it tougher to make up ground as she ran X_BIAS showing a WIDE MOVE after a poor SLOG/TROUBLE_S.

#5 SWEET SMILA projected to move up on the DROP going back to the MSW visuals last season and while she has run for the tag returning in 2024, she finds a softer spot today with the lower race par. She brings in current form from the races this season and another move forward is not out of the question. Visually she appeared lackluster/PRERACE- on 5/18 off the bench and had a less than ideal TACTIC- ride and TROUBLE on 6/2 and moves off the rail today. She has early speed though does not need the lead like the two runners on her outside in #6 LOST SUNSET and #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

Looking at the PLOT/GRID, it is clear #1 TAHOE RUN and #4 JOE THE TAILOR have a massive class edge in this field. Both are players though strategically,  a decision on one rather than use the two, siding with TAHOE RUN of the pair. He will make his second start off the layoff and shifting back to the dirt, a move that suggest all around intent. They likely were given a race coming in from OP off the 56-day break and the grass conditioning has been used in the past to present a move forward. As far as remaining at the sprint distance, that should not be an issue especially here and has shown early speed sprinting on this course last year. 

The Meraz runners bookending the field are major players in this race and complement each other. #8 CATEGORY TEN will shift to the turf for just a second time (the other was a second career start in MSW company with TROUBLE_S) though should transfer his form as one that has been able to do so on the synthetic and take his game from track-to-track. Sophomore #1 BOURBON LIFE wheels right back from the 6/23 common race upgraded with the WIDE MOVE and strong GALLOP+. Today’s par is higher (something to note for winner #7 RED HORNET stepping up and Plot downgrade here) and though found a similar par back on 6/1 with the dominant B+ win that day to suggest he can compete at this level.   

#2 LUNDBURG finds a lateral change in class with the circuit switch and moves up naturally in this spot. Looking at the Plot, his runstyle fits today’s race shape with early speed to sit off #3 STRANGE ARRANGE with first run. His Plot position is a subtle upgrade shifting to a Square from a Q1 Circle in the 5/12 CD event.

C. Block will send out a pair in this race with both projecting to get attention. Preference again sides with #8 GOOD APPLE one that has shown greater progression than #4 MOONLIGHT ROAD on the track and speed figures. GOOD APPLE finds a subtle post shift and that could make the difference as he has had some gate (TROUBLE_S) in the recent starts as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and drawn similar to his maiden score today.

In the underneath role, #5 FAMILY TRADITION should be fit on the cutback and was around for the minor share under similar conditions here last season. Number wise #7 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR is right there and his N1 efforts earlier this meet were competitive to get a minor share as he resets his form cycle in this spot. 

#9 CONGRATS ON FIFTY could be the “speed of the speed” in this event and form this season as he makes his second start of the cycle upgraded staying on as the BOS X_FLOW in the 6/8 return.

That race a common race for many in this field and tough to deny the BTL effort from #7 ARTHURIAN, the type of trip that caught many eyes and will get attention here. Perhaps more subtle trip for #5 CODE NAME as he was giving up recency off the 106-day layoff caught WIDE X_FLOW chasing the Fast early pace.

Rivelli will send out the pair of sophomores: #10 RAVIN’S TOWN has been more consistent of the two especially in the sprints and noting he stayed in with the recent surfaces switches they could be looking for a MTO scenario here again. #8 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK was dominant on debut and still out to validate that effort. He has some excuses closing out 2023 and some coming back off the layoff last month and physically should handle the TURF. They had considered running last week for the $25k and something to note as they remain protected here.

Another new face sophomore in #2 SPANISH WELLS showing up for a very good turf sprint barn to make a grass debut. Number wise he has been consistent and a slight drop in the par from the 6/9 event, his first off the claim and against winners, should translate to this group.  

There is a slightly extreme race shape looking at the Plot with the Fire Contention and higher 56 SpeedRate, visually shown with the majority of the field in Q1and above the ParLine. That scenario sets up for #6 BROKEN HEARTS BAY with her runstyle. She return from a freshening back in allowance company where she further fits on class and speed as a contender in this race.

Individual factors also present on #7 HYPERSPORT as she makes her Hawthorne debut. While she is one of those Q1 runners the Square is upgraded off that first flight and she is not a “need the lead” type and has been able to rate and finish in the past. She could find that trip or a pressing trip (rather than the pressed) with the change in post moving outside, a trip similar to the win on 4/1 at OP. 

Block has been dominant on the turf this season and tough to ignore anything the barn is sending out especially with a pair as the case here. #1 LICENSE TO STEAL should benefit from the debut experience as he WASTED a lot of energy prerace broke SLOG and showed run making a WIDE MOVE with TURF visuals to support for today’s surface. Mojica shifts to #5 TOWERING STORM, the four-year-old making a belated debut. This one has been in training a long time and plenty of works this season as there should be no excuses on readiness though one to get a look at the visuals in the paddock and clues on the board.

#10 RICKY’S BEST is another 4yo making a return and while not technically a FTS, they can almost be treated as such given the 547-day layoff since the debut, a first start that saw them break SLOG, TROUBLE_S and not asked (NO_PUSH) on the day. The steady works and rider assignment to C. Emigh is enough to take notice here.

#3 CHARBON has been on the radar since his debut with the sneaky good trip back in March at OP showing run and projected to IMPROVE. The timing, WIDE trips and distance played a role in the outcome and as they show up here with the slight break, intent appears in play and could  catch the right time place and price. 

The opener is tough, due to a couple of horses making very quick returns and not knowing what to expect. A horse that should be ready, four weeks off his last is 2-D'ARCHER. He has early speed in a race that is lacking of pace and is likely to be asked for that speed from Mojica in here. If he can shake loose early he may never look back. 6-MON AMI FUZZIE comes back three weeks after his last as he runs for the new connections today. He rated and ran evenly through the lane in his last but could move forwardly for the new barn in here. He is winless from 14 starts over the track though which leaves some concern. 4-UNCAPTURED PULSE is one of those making the quick return as he comes off a solid win at a big price in his last. He rated closer in that spot and finished well. He continues to progress and merits a look with these.

The big drops for some of these in here are scary. One of those being 2-IRISH SPARK as she comes out of three straight maiden allowance tests into this race. She looks to get some pace to chase though as she figures to settle and run on last. She has regressed in her starts though as this race possibly comes up as a confidence boost. 3-BABAS GAL has been at this level for her last couple, running well to finish third in her last two. She figures to pick off some horses late in here and could be helped by a possible contested pace upfront. 6-LOST SUNSET adds Lasix off her last as she likely bled in that spot, leading to the poor performance. She stays at the same level once again and should be able to show some speed with these.

There's very little early pace in this race, which should benefit the chances of 4-JOE THE TAILOR. He also held on while facing similar on the dirt two back and ran a nice race on the grass in his last. He gets Cohen in the saddle today as he figures to make the top and possibly never look back. 1-TAHOE RUN has been at his best at Hawthorne over the main track as he defeated open allowance company on the dirt here last summer. He faces state-breds in here as he comes off of a somewhat disappointing turf try last out. 7-DASH TO THE CASH makes his first start of the year and he always seems to close into the mix late. He has worked consistently toward his return and figures to rally in the lane once again.

Another spot where the quick return leaves some unknown, but I really like the effort shown by 7-RED HORNET over the course here last week as he rated and rallied to a solid score. There is very little along the lines of early pace in this spot as he could settle closer and repeat that last performance while at a decent price. 8-CATEGORY TEN is likely hoping for this race to come off the grass as he looks to be much better on the main track. He put together back to back wins in races two and three back for a barn that has been strong in recent weeks. 4-C F V BULLET was claimed for $30k three back and faced tougher in a pair of off track starts in his last two. He turns back to the grass in here as he's another that may look to rate a bit closer to the early pace.

A really solid allowance field in this spot as the new shooter could be the one to keep an eye on. 2-LUNDBERG was claimed for $45k at Oaklawn back in February and followed that race with a pair of good dirt races while stepping up in his next couple. He has tactical speed and may rate just off Strange Arrange in here as he's working well toward his return to the race. 5-FAMILY TRADITION shortens up today to the six furlong distance, where he's been at his best. He is another that won't be too far off the pace as he is worth a look while at a price. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE ran a big race in his last and almost got the job done, getting caught in the shadow of the wire. The shorter distance today will help as he looks to get loose on the front end.

I really liked 7-ARTHURIAN last out as he was trying the grass for the first time and he ran a big race, almost getting up for the win. He shortens up a 16th in here but has some speed as he shouldn't be too far back at any point. 9-CONGRATS ON FIFTY is one of those with speed as he led late in that same race that Arthurian comes out of. He broke his maiden on the front end at this distance on the main track last July and should be a part of the early pace in here. 3-LARRY THE POET is the unknown as he has never been on the grass but is a major factor on the main track. He also has speed as Giles has been a good fit for him.

A very competitive bunch closes things out on the grass as many of these faced off earlier in the meet. 7-SPINNING HEART had been waiting to get back on the turf and finally found that spot on June 8 as he was forwardly placed and battled the entire way. He should get a similar trip once again and could be a decent price as well. 1-LICENSE TO STEAL wanted the turf in his debut but stayed in when the race came off a ran a respectable race first out. He stretches out today and could add a bit to the early pace as he will have to work to get position into the first turn. 11-PILKINGTON is the one to beat as he draws outside but should be closing with a rush. Even though he has yet to find the board in seven career turf starts, many of those races have come against tougher and his figures stack up in here.

2-D’ARCHER hasn’t shown a thing in his two races so far this year but he could be the best, maybe only speed, in this race if he fires. 6-MON AMIE FUZZIE can improve off the claim. Runners from this barn often come alive after getting claimed. This one hasn’t been showing his typical good late move lately but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of early pace in here to set up for a deep closer and his recent style of running could benefit. 4-UNCAPTURED PULSE finished with a flourish in his most recent race and lit up the toteboard. He’s not likely to get the rapid pace ahead of him in this contest but he seems to be at the top of his form cycle. You know he’ll be gunning for them late.

6-LOST SUNSET stopped badly in last and finished behind some of these rivals but it’s quite possible she bled. Gets first Lasix today. Meets many with speed but her debut race was probably the best effort of any in here so far. Hopefully the Lasix will help. 7-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT loves the front end. However, she does tend to run out of gas. She finished second in her last three starts, two of them routes. She was claimed from her last start. Maybe the change of scenery will help. 5-SWEET SMILA drops. She’s been marginally competitive in all of her races. Should have an easier time of it at this level.

1-TAHOE RUN did not handle the soft turf at all in his first start of the meet. Today he’ll be meeting state breds on dirt for only the second time. The last time was when he was still a maiden racing in a rough stakes race. He probably prefers route races but he did finish second the last time he ran in a dirt sprint on a fast track. 4-JOE THE TAILOR has to be caught. He’s had five races and won twice while finishing second two times. It is interesting to note that his regular rider will be piloting the top choice for the first time instead of him. 7-DASH TO THE CASH can finish with a rush. He hasn’t run since the end of August but an abundance of works will have him fit. The lack of a contested early pace could be his main obstacle. 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY is seemingly outgunned but he has a definite affinity for this track. He’s had 10 local starts and won four of them. He hasn’t faced Illinois breds since 2021. Wouldn’t ignore.

7-RED HORNET can make it two in a row. He hadn’t shown much in his first three races after getting claimed by this barn but those races were on dirt. He came alive in last when racing on the turf. That shouldn’t have been a surprise considering virtually all his previous success came on the weeds. He’s taking on somewhat better than the group he just beat but he still looms as the one to beat. 5-SIMPLE LOGIC certainly figures. However, he’s had a bad case of seconditis. But he is stretching out and his lone turf win came at this distance. Could get over the hump. 3-STORM’S REFLECTION just finished third in a race that might have been tougher than this. Like his versatility with the ability to run well on or off the pace. He’s going to be a price. Include in the gimmicks. 4-C F V BULLET is a bit of an unknown. He finished second in his lone turf race but that was two years ago. He’s been meeting some awfully tough company since getting claimed by this barn while racing on wet tracks. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be good on turf despite that one good effort but he’s bred to relish the surface. 8-CATEGORY TEN was eased in his lone turf race but he’s been in good form on the main track while racing at this level. 

2-LUNDBERG is sure to be tough. Speedy runner has been facing superior rivals at Churchill and Oaklawn. He finished second in his last three, barely beaten in two of them. But there is plenty of pace to keep him honest on the front end. He’ll have to be at his best to take it all the way. Will 4-MOONLIGHT ROAD finally fire? This will be the right spot to do it. There is a plethora of speed to set up for a late runner and when Moonlight does fire, he can close with the best of them. 9-TWIRLING ROSES is another likely to do his best running late. He has seven local wins and six wins at the distance and he should relish the blistering pace of this race.

7-ARTHURIAN just missed in his first start on turf which was also his first start for this barn. He was able to close on a very fast pace. Considering that many of the speed runners from that last race are also in this one, the pace is likely to set up once again. However, this race is a sixteenth shorter and his rider from that last race chose a different runner. Things might not set up quite as well but he still looks like the one to beat. 5-CODE NAME needed last. He displayed good speed but the layoff took its toll and he faded late. Will likely have to fight for the lead once again but this time might be better prepared to get the distance. 2-SPANISH WELLS looks quick. He tired badly in his first start for this barn but that race was on dirt and he’s bred for this, his turf debut. Could be right there throughout. 

3-PURR SEA should be the quickest of these. She finished second in a couple tough fields in her last two starts after leading much of the way. She’s a six-time winner and won three of her eight local races. Wouldn’t be surprised if she wired this field. 8-WILMA MANKILLER makes her first start of the year. She was scratched from a stakes race last week in favor of this spot. She owns decent early food but is also comfortable when racing from right off the pace. Could be tough in her comeback effort. 9-FIRST HILL takes on tougher but she won her last four and the pace of this race works well in her favor.

Can see 11-PILKINGTON and 6-WOLF HUNTER in a duel down the stretch with a head bob separating them at the wire. It’s likely that there will be enough speed to set up for their late run. Pilkington has the advantage of the journeyman rider while Wolf Hunter has the advantage of the apprentice rider with his seven-pound weight allowance. 2-NOT FALLING BACK displayed good speed and held on pretty well in last, his turf debut. Don’t think he has much, if any, speed advantage but his new rider holds those speed runners together late as well as anyone. Might be able to put the rest of the speed away and have enough left to hold off the late runners. 1-LICENSE TO STEAL split the field in his lone start, a sprint originally scheduled for turf. But runners from his barn often need a race. They win 25% of the time when making their second starts, and 23% of the time when moving from turf to dirt.

Race 5:  2 - 3 - 5

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,5,8 / 2,5,9 / 1,3,7,8,9 / 1,11   ($60)

This race is very important for horizontal bettors as it’s the closeout leg of the early Pick 4 and start of the Late Pick 4. It’s also a spread race with many contenders. There appears to be two speed types, and I’ll go with one of them. #2 Lundberg (5-2) seems to be a bit more versatile than the other speed just to his outside. Hopefully jockey Cohen can read the situation and make the right decision. Even though the horse is only 1 for 12 lifetime, he seems to be learning the game and improving. He was claimed three back and is not for sale today…high expectations seem to be the name of the game here.