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Sun June 30th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:10 PM CST
4-STARINA seems most likely though she’s far from a lock.
Her average speed figures are the highest, she races for a world-class trainer,
and she’ll utilize one of the top local jocks for her local debut. Don’t ignore
1-REALISTIC GOAL. Toss out her last two on turf and in her third race back, her
lone dirt route, she finished a few lengths ahead of Elodine and she was flying
late. 2-ELODINE is back from Kentucky. She split good fields in her last two
dirt routes. Expecting her to display better speed today. The connections of 6-W
W LAST HURRAH must like her chances. They shipped her up here when she could
have faced somewhat easier at Fanduel. However, runners from her barn often
need a race, especially to tackle two turns.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Have to think that 5-MYSTIC STORM is the one to beat. If
you can ignore last, her turf debut, she looks like she should overpower this
group. She has been competitive enough against better that the drop in class
makes all the sense. 2-ELLIE DELI returns to dirt for the first time since
getting claimed by this barn. Herb trainer is hitting at a 245 clip. Two of
this filly’s three wins came at this distance. 6-MAYSTART finally drops. Her
recent races in starter company leave a lot to be desired but when she was
racing against straight claimers here last year, she was highly competitive.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:06 PM CST
This is a pretty evenly matched group, at least on paper.
Every member has had at least one race, where if they had an equal effort,
would wind up beating the rest. But think 6-TRIPLE SCOUT could have the edge. If
you throw out her Turfway race, on synth, earlier this year, she has been like
an ATM. She has finished out of the money only four times in her last 27 races,
dating back to May of 2021. She won eight of her last 14 races, and finished
second, barely beaten, another three times. However, her speed figures really
aren’t that much better than most of her rivals. Is she vulnerable? We’ll see. 3-ADIVA
faced allowance company in two of her three races since getting claimed by this
barn and tried to catch the lone speed in a starter between those two races.
Today, with all the speed in this race, she should be able to stalk, her
preferred style of running. It should also be noted that two of her three
victories came on off tracks. 4-DOCS SEVEN looks like the best closer in the
field. She won her last on turf but she has been far more successful on the
main track.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:34 PM CST
1-LATIN CASINO drops off the claim. I usually am not a
fan of that happening but this looks like a terrific move. This versatile
runner might get claimed again but the connections would only lose $1500 on
that transaction while having a great shot of getting the lion’s share of the
$15,000 purse. Seems like a good gamble to me. 4-TIME HEIST won three of last five.
However, his regular rider will be aboard the barn’s other starter in this
race, a horse he had never ridden. Interesting. 6-TRY TRY AGAIN beat most of
this field in last and paid nearly $60 doing it. He showed little in his first
three races this year but he looks like he has regained the form he displayed
for much of 2023. Can repeat.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:02 PM CST
8-CANYON SHADOWS looks tough. He ran well in three of his
four races, including a narrow loss in last when trying turf for the first
time. Today he’ll get first Lasix and race with blinkers for the first time. Guessing
he’ll be sent right to the lead and never look back. 1-PONTUS finished a couple
lengths behind top pick in their debut but he had trouble at the start. He was
making up ground late but ran out of real estate. His pedigree suggests that
he’ll relish the extra distance of this race. Could close ground in the
stretch. 3-TOWERING STORM races for turf specialists. Love the way he’s been
working. However, their runners often need a start and they win with only six
percent of first timers and it’s been a long time since one of their runners
won when debuting at a mile or over. 9-STREET FEST has sneaky good works. Certainly
worth a look.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
6-ROCKET HOTSHOT is seemingly overmatched since he’s been
racing for a nickel but the conditions of this race, a NW3, excludes horses who
have had multiple wins for less than $10k. This late runner won two of his last
three, five lifetime scores, and lost the other by less than a length. There
won’t be a lot of pace to set up for his late run but his main contenders will
face the same obstacle. 3-BRUCE BANNER probably needed last after three months
off. He made a nice middle move to get to the lead in the stretch but couldn’t
sustain that bid. However, this time he’ll have a race under his belt and this
appears to be a far easier field than he met in that last race. 2-JET FLIGHT just
finished second in similar. Good tactical speed could give him an advantage in
a race filled with late runners.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Not in love with any in here but 6-DAPPER DUDE has a win
and a place from four turf starts and he’s dropping to meet his easiest field since
his narrow loss in his career debut. 2-WE MISS ARLINGTON probably has to be
beat. He had a couple decent races at Oaklawn over the winter and he’s another
dropping in class. However, even though he owns a nice turf pedigree, he never
ran on the weeds. You never know if they’ll like it until they show that they
like it. 9-COOL AND COLLECTED broke his maiden on grass but that’s really the
only time he ever showed much. He finished a distant fourth in his last two
starts, one of them on the turf, at this level. But, he did pop a bullet drill
since his last race. Can’t ignore the barn. 4-KINGSBURRY ATTACK has been
trounced in both races this year but he did have a couple efforts in 2023 that
suggest he could be competitive against this group on any given day.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:26 PM CST
7-MINING CAMP could finally graduate. He’s dropping to
his lowest level and turning back in distance. He has plenty of early speed but
it’s more suited to routes and he’s meeting some quicker than he which should
work in his favor. Just when they are starting to run out of gas, he should be
hitting his best stride. 1-PIRATE MARMALADE comes off his best effort ever. Like
the late run he showed in his two races at this level. The pace will set up. He
could finish fastest of all. 6-NAP LOVER makes his debut for a strong outfit.
He sports decent drills. Could easily be a major player.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 5:54 PM CST
4-ROAR OF SILENCE surprisingly drops into maiden
claimers. She’s had only one race, on turf, and it wasn’t a bad effort. But she
could be far tougher at this level. 8-POSSESSION also drops. She finished
slightly ahead of top choice while making her turf debut. This will be only her
third race. Might still have plenty of upside. 9-BABE IN THE WOODS just missed
graduating in last when making her Hawthorne and her turf debut. That was her
first race in nearly three months. She could be even better prepared for this
race.
Hawthorne Race 10
Post Time 6:22 PM CST
7-CHANEL POINT just graduated and did it with authority. She’ll
be taking on better rivals today but she finished last with a ton of run. There’s
a good chance she’ll repeat. Wonder how many claims there will be for 4-BOYCE’S
BANDITA. She’s been displaying only brief speed since breaking her maiden but
she has been taking on somewhat tougher rivals in Illinois-bred allowance
company. Think she would be much tougher at five furlongs but at this level she
should be able to last six. 2-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS isn’t a big closer but am
expecting her to be stalking the early pace, hoping to move on the early leaders
late.
Hawthorne Race 11
Post Time 6:44 PM CST
1-MADELYN BELLE is always hard to beat. Winner of last
three and six of her 10 career starts scored a narrow victory in her lone turf
start. She was claimed from the top barn from last but her new barn wins with
36% of their first-time claims. 7-SHE’S WANDAFUL finished 2023 with two
straight victories and could continue that win streak in her first start of 2024.
When she’s “on” she’s either right on the lead or right off it. She’ll have to deal
with some other speed runners and she has traditionally needed a race to hit
peak form but today could change that. 4-MOVE IT BABY has four turf sprint
victories, including in two of her last three races. 6-CHROME ATTACK and 3-LIPLINER
are a couple of veteran turf sprinters trained by Vance Childers. Chrome Attack
will be coming late while Lipliner might be pressing the pace. Both figure
prominently and both will go off at great odds.