Handicapper Tips & Picks

4-STARINA seems most likely though she’s far from a lock. Her average speed figures are the highest, she races for a world-class trainer, and she’ll utilize one of the top local jocks for her local debut. Don’t ignore 1-REALISTIC GOAL. Toss out her last two on turf and in her third race back, her lone dirt route, she finished a few lengths ahead of Elodine and she was flying late. 2-ELODINE is back from Kentucky. She split good fields in her last two dirt routes. Expecting her to display better speed today. The connections of 6-W W LAST HURRAH must like her chances. They shipped her up here when she could have faced somewhat easier at Fanduel. However, runners from her barn often need a race, especially to tackle two turns.

Have to think that 5-MYSTIC STORM is the one to beat. If you can ignore last, her turf debut, she looks like she should overpower this group. She has been competitive enough against better that the drop in class makes all the sense. 2-ELLIE DELI returns to dirt for the first time since getting claimed by this barn. Herb trainer is hitting at a 245 clip. Two of this filly’s three wins came at this distance. 6-MAYSTART finally drops. Her recent races in starter company leave a lot to be desired but when she was racing against straight claimers here last year, she was highly competitive. 

This is a pretty evenly matched group, at least on paper. Every member has had at least one race, where if they had an equal effort, would wind up beating the rest. But think 6-TRIPLE SCOUT could have the edge. If you throw out her Turfway race, on synth, earlier this year, she has been like an ATM. She has finished out of the money only four times in her last 27 races, dating back to May of 2021. She won eight of her last 14 races, and finished second, barely beaten, another three times. However, her speed figures really aren’t that much better than most of her rivals. Is she vulnerable? We’ll see. 3-ADIVA faced allowance company in two of her three races since getting claimed by this barn and tried to catch the lone speed in a starter between those two races. Today, with all the speed in this race, she should be able to stalk, her preferred style of running. It should also be noted that two of her three victories came on off tracks. 4-DOCS SEVEN looks like the best closer in the field. She won her last on turf but she has been far more successful on the main track.

1-LATIN CASINO drops off the claim. I usually am not a fan of that happening but this looks like a terrific move. This versatile runner might get claimed again but the connections would only lose $1500 on that transaction while having a great shot of getting the lion’s share of the $15,000 purse. Seems like a good gamble to me. 4-TIME HEIST won three of last five. However, his regular rider will be aboard the barn’s other starter in this race, a horse he had never ridden. Interesting. 6-TRY TRY AGAIN beat most of this field in last and paid nearly $60 doing it. He showed little in his first three races this year but he looks like he has regained the form he displayed for much of 2023. Can repeat.

8-CANYON SHADOWS looks tough. He ran well in three of his four races, including a narrow loss in last when trying turf for the first time. Today he’ll get first Lasix and race with blinkers for the first time. Guessing he’ll be sent right to the lead and never look back. 1-PONTUS finished a couple lengths behind top pick in their debut but he had trouble at the start. He was making up ground late but ran out of real estate. His pedigree suggests that he’ll relish the extra distance of this race. Could close ground in the stretch. 3-TOWERING STORM races for turf specialists. Love the way he’s been working. However, their runners often need a start and they win with only six percent of first timers and it’s been a long time since one of their runners won when debuting at a mile or over. 9-STREET FEST has sneaky good works. Certainly worth a look.

6-ROCKET HOTSHOT is seemingly overmatched since he’s been racing for a nickel but the conditions of this race, a NW3, excludes horses who have had multiple wins for less than $10k. This late runner won two of his last three, five lifetime scores, and lost the other by less than a length. There won’t be a lot of pace to set up for his late run but his main contenders will face the same obstacle. 3-BRUCE BANNER probably needed last after three months off. He made a nice middle move to get to the lead in the stretch but couldn’t sustain that bid. However, this time he’ll have a race under his belt and this appears to be a far easier field than he met in that last race. 2-JET FLIGHT just finished second in similar. Good tactical speed could give him an advantage in a race filled with late runners. 

Not in love with any in here but 6-DAPPER DUDE has a win and a place from four turf starts and he’s dropping to meet his easiest field since his narrow loss in his career debut. 2-WE MISS ARLINGTON probably has to be beat. He had a couple decent races at Oaklawn over the winter and he’s another dropping in class. However, even though he owns a nice turf pedigree, he never ran on the weeds. You never know if they’ll like it until they show that they like it. 9-COOL AND COLLECTED broke his maiden on grass but that’s really the only time he ever showed much. He finished a distant fourth in his last two starts, one of them on the turf, at this level. But, he did pop a bullet drill since his last race. Can’t ignore the barn. 4-KINGSBURRY ATTACK has been trounced in both races this year but he did have a couple efforts in 2023 that suggest he could be competitive against this group on any given day.

7-MINING CAMP could finally graduate. He’s dropping to his lowest level and turning back in distance. He has plenty of early speed but it’s more suited to routes and he’s meeting some quicker than he which should work in his favor. Just when they are starting to run out of gas, he should be hitting his best stride. 1-PIRATE MARMALADE comes off his best effort ever. Like the late run he showed in his two races at this level. The pace will set up. He could finish fastest of all. 6-NAP LOVER makes his debut for a strong outfit. He sports decent drills. Could easily be a major player.

4-ROAR OF SILENCE surprisingly drops into maiden claimers. She’s had only one race, on turf, and it wasn’t a bad effort. But she could be far tougher at this level. 8-POSSESSION also drops. She finished slightly ahead of top choice while making her turf debut. This will be only her third race. Might still have plenty of upside. 9-BABE IN THE WOODS just missed graduating in last when making her Hawthorne and her turf debut. That was her first race in nearly three months. She could be even better prepared for this race.

7-CHANEL POINT just graduated and did it with authority. She’ll be taking on better rivals today but she finished last with a ton of run. There’s a good chance she’ll repeat. Wonder how many claims there will be for 4-BOYCE’S BANDITA. She’s been displaying only brief speed since breaking her maiden but she has been taking on somewhat tougher rivals in Illinois-bred allowance company. Think she would be much tougher at five furlongs but at this level she should be able to last six. 2-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS isn’t a big closer but am expecting her to be stalking the early pace, hoping to move on the early leaders late.

1-MADELYN BELLE is always hard to beat. Winner of last three and six of her 10 career starts scored a narrow victory in her lone turf start. She was claimed from the top barn from last but her new barn wins with 36% of their first-time claims. 7-SHE’S WANDAFUL finished 2023 with two straight victories and could continue that win streak in her first start of 2024. When she’s “on” she’s either right on the lead or right off it. She’ll have to deal with some other speed runners and she has traditionally needed a race to hit peak form but today could change that. 4-MOVE IT BABY has four turf sprint victories, including in two of her last three races. 6-CHROME ATTACK and 3-LIPLINER are a couple of veteran turf sprinters trained by Vance Childers. Chrome Attack will be coming late while Lipliner might be pressing the pace. Both figure prominently and both will go off at great odds.