Handicapper Tips & Picks

To start off the Sunday card, the field of sophomore fillies are evenly matched though many unproven over the turf. That could present the edge to #1 DI’S SURPRISE in this case as she has the grass experience and intent where has others have run on the main and making the surface switch for the first time here. That includes her Rivelli stablemate #2 DORORTHY CROWFOOT one that has recorded some of the higher figures and numbers returning this season despite picking up the win and those races fit on par here and could find the right tracking trip as well.

Cohen had been aboard both of the Rivelli runners sticking with DI’S SURPRISE today and also had been aboard #5 DREAM NAP, a talented IL-bred that will step up to take on open as well as the turf and would be no surprise for her class to translate here and handle the changes. While she does lose her regular rider, she is in capable hands with O. Mojica taking over. 

This is a tough race where a lot of action will default to #1 CANYON SHADOWS with the connections and form this season. In terms of form, the first two starts make him a main player though after those races, faltered at the GATE and showing declining form that requires a turnaround to a top effort. Perhaps this would be the time with the cutback in distance (though no excuse last out on a Slow early pace) the blinkers off and second Lasix.

Without CANYON SHADOWS running back to those first two efforts, this race is wide open with a case to be made on many including #2 GOOD YEGG making a very, very 952-day belated return to the races. He returns as a 7yo here though has some solid back numbers and the return works are steady with some quicker moves. The connections forced to give him his time and remain protected today, perhaps will be rewarded for their patience.

The works are not as “flashy” or consistent for the other older runner #6 CRUZIN N CURSIN though enough to get ready. Similar in terms of spacing for #4 DOMINANT D. the sophomore debuting runner that will be joined by his stablemate #5 PRAEFECTUS URBANUS one that will make a class change though given a strong Flow-upgrade from the 5/18 race. 

There should be no excuses today for #2 BE LUCKY as he comes into this race with a pace advantage (Plot) and current form this season under similar conditions. He will find a softer race par today as well to move up further, naturally.

Number wise #1 STOLICH fits right in line and another with subtle form this season and has yet to run back to a top effort. This could be the time and place and with a rider change shaking things up as F. Reyes jumps aboard. He should present as a value alternative to likely second choice, #5 CHARLIE BEACH.

The change in class is notable for #6 DASTARDLY DEEDS though is back at a level from the April races earlier this season. His form and figures from those spring races were the same as now and in line with prior dirt form that does not hold any edge in this group. 

#1 CODE RUNNER has been on the “follow” list since the later part of 2023 and the two KY races this season. He has been entered in a couple of times since the KEE race and requiring some time also finds a barn change (same owner) moving to B. Cook, a barn that has sent out some live runners as of late. His presence in this race with the class change could show more tactical speed as shown on the Plot and apply pace pressure to #3 AHEADOFTHEGAME one that “on paper” does have that “lone speed” look.

Villa will drop #6 COMEDIC TIMING for this race and looking to step up with that change alone. That could do the trick based on his figures this season, though still requires a top effort. #5 STRONGER TOGETHER also makes the drop and while his current figures are tougher to make that “natural” move up case for, he has had some “trips” impacting his outcome and the number where a turnaround today could be in play, upgraded on Surface/Distance PLOT and at the least will come with price compensation.

#4 JEFF THE LION is closer to a lateral class change for this race. He brings in progressive form and should run his race though could also still require a lot in his favor to win (Q4) and might not present value in that case. 

This is an interesting race and starting with #1 DICK BEST as the connections show up on this circuit with the Cal-bred and land here after scratching from the Bertrando (Cal bred stakes) on 6/23 at LRC. His numbers, early speed along with the rail draw should have him as the controlling speed (Q1) in this race, however when looking at the OptixRPM, 5 of the 6 in this field share that E/EP RunStyle and could be more contentious than it appears with the one horse that is not listed with that RunStyle, #2 DOUBLE THUNDER capable of showing (Q1/2) early speed as well.

#3 GLOBAL EMPIRE was not always an EP type and could revert back to his off the pace style to work a trip in this field. Number wise he is lighter than the others from Past 3 Runlines though has back numbers on par and his GRADES moving in the right direction. #6 CITY OF GOD is also very light on figures and class. With that said, his BTL effort back on 5/7 caught the eye and appears trainer M. Quinonez has this one shipping back to Hawthorne with a rider change suggesting some intent in play. 

#6 I’M BOX OFFICE is due for some redemption closing out 2023 with an EX- EXCUSE and pairing an EX – EXCUSE in their return here three weeks ago. The compromised TROUBLES+ had them out of contention right from the start and was in hand NO_PUSH. The connections come back in this event with the class drop which is probably not the most ideal move though given the trips and timing could just be looking to have a live horse spotted to win.

#1 LADY HELENA will show up here first off the claim and quick drop that could also have reservations attached while looking for the win. She can be upgraded from the races this season, with the GATE issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S, NO_PUSH) off the bench in May at CD and made a RUSH X_FLOW before losing ground in the claiming event last out. The BTL effort back in February makes her a player here.

Those two fit as the “new” faces at this level and can mix things up with #8 LEIPZIG one that had a big look at this level when a massive 22-1 overlay on 6/8 and turned in a B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level despite the place finish. 

The start of the late Pick 4, is a solid group of allowance runners and competitive, professional racehorses. From value, less interested in playing morning line favorite #4 W W HOTSHOT in this spot and race shape. Part of that is due to the projected pace with the returning #5 FIT TO FLY capable of showing legit early speed off the bench in this field (Q1) and force the hand of W W HOTSHOT to keep them honest or could be looking at a gate-to-wire threat under D. Cohen for L. Rivelli. Number wise W W HOTSHOT has recorded higher figures than stablemate #2 MEGAN’S HONOR, though the SHORTER distance is a positive and has held his form all year long.

Value also worth keeping into consideration for #1 WENT WEST one that turned in a new top of the cycle back on 6/8 and did take a step back number wise despite the win two weeks ago and is back on another quick turnaround and another tough group here. Looking at the Plot, WENT WEST sits in line with #7 DEVIL’S TOWER one that can be upgraded in that case and off his current form this year and third start back off the layoff. He return from a WIDE trip in the Skinner stakes last month, might not have been the best place on the track that day.

J. Haran also has a pair in this race with #3 MACRON coming in with the strong current form and back numbers over #6 MANTA REY though in the complexion of this field (Plot) both are not out of it, though longshots to win. 

Looking at the Plot, this is a competitive race and a race where value ca be found. Double digit runners such as #3 THREEFIFTYSEVEN moves up on the DROP and fits on the surface/distance based on prior seasons with tactical speed to work a trip; #9 PINBALLER was upgraded with the move to the TURF for the first time this season and turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE despite the DELAY to the race and significant ground loss (X_WIDE) making a MOVE in the show finish behind the dominant pacesetting, lone open length winner, Tightrope. Both THREEFIFTYSEVEN and PINBALLER can work out trips in this field and with a projected honest early pace that includes both #5 MCVICKER and #6 DRAGON DREW. 

There is a lot more depth in this race than just #1 BETTY’S SECRET and #3 TOP LOOK some of the runners that hold the higher figures in this field. From a pace standpoint, there is a scenario for #9 SWEET CRYSTAL to “wire” the field, a Flow-upgrade from the races this season and further upgrade with rider change and potential for a front wrap removal. #5 TAP N TWINE is tougher to make a case for as an individual, though looking at the Plot and race shape she can fall into a trip, a trip that could also present for #2 GHAALEB’S MAGIC.

Number wise #6 SHEZA HOOT is softer though recorded a B- OptixGRADE and BTL effort under similar conditions could be competitive and while the recent numbers are light, there are back numbers that fit strongly on par. 

#2 GIANNO looked well placed with the drop and move to the turf, two moves that had been in play (scratches) before the 5/25 event. His place effort (B-) was earned with a less than ideal trip (SLOG, TACTIC-) and against the Very Slow early race shape with a rider change and upgrade.

#3 LA PERFECT BEE has been intended for the TURF since the debut when earning a B OptixGRADE and since has shown run in each start once again back on shorter rest to step up and compete here. #1 PRINCE IS MY BOY turned in a competitive race on the turf in his second career start. The figure was on the lower event though keeping in mind that number was earned as a juvenile and his current form, albeit on the dirt, fits on par.

#8 REGIMENTAL finds the return to MCL company and for the first time MCL company on this circuit, the right DROP to compete. He has a pattern of SLOG that requires a trip and some price compensation.

First time starter #4 I O FEDRO will make a belated debut, a horse that was entered here under similar conditions back on 5/25 (vet) and unable to draw in to a MSW on 6/8 shows up for the live, capable connections.