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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 7th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Di's Surprise - 7-5 2 Dorothy Crowfoot - 5-2 5 Dream Nap - 7-2

This could be a match race between the Rivelli-trained entrants but do think that 1-DI’S SURPRISE holds the edge on turf. She broke her maiden two races back, in a turf sprint, and finished third to a tough winner, who came right back to score again, in last. 2-DOROTHY CROWFOOT could be the better of the two if this race happened to get moved to the main track. She would be making her turf debut but she has been very good in her three dirt races here. 5-DREAM NAP has been a sharp winner in both her races. However, both were dirt sprints and both were against Illinois breds. Her barn in 0-for-15 in recent turf sprints but would never count them out.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Canyon Shadows - 1-1 5 Praefectus Urbanus - 6-1 2 Good Yegg - 8-1

1-CANYON SHADOWS appears to hold a dramatic advantage over the rest of the field. He stopped badly in last in a turf route. That was his first race with blinkers and Lasix. He obviously didn’t like blinkers since they come off in this race. Turns back in distance and moves back to the main track. Guessing he’ll gun them down in the stretch. 5-PRAEFECTUS URBANUS needed last. He was making his first start of the year and his first start for this barn. He ran out of gas there but he’s turning back in distance and moving back into the state-bred ranks. Expect dramatic improvement. 2-GOOD YEGG has some better than average workouts coming into his first start since 2021. Could be interesting.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Be Lucky - 4-5 5 Charlie's Beach - 5-2 1 Stolich - 9-2

2-BE LUCKY finished well-beaten thirds in his two starts here but those races still make him look like a standout in this field. 5-CHARLIE’S BEACH has been racing regularly downstate. His speed figures suggest that he’s the only one in here capable of giving top choice a run for the money. 1-STOLICH could make late move and be the best of the rest.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Jeff the Lion - 7-2 6 Comedic Timing - 4-1 1 Code Runner - 2-1

4-JEFF THE LION is finally in the right spot. He looked a little tired in his first start of the year but was much improved in last even though he lost by seven. Even though there aren’t many speed types in this race, the pace should be strong enough to set up for his late run.6-COMEDIC TIMING hasn’t seemed to be at his best on dirt. He had been far more effective on synthetic. But he’s dropping enough to erase that apparent disadvantage. He’s another capable of finishing fast. 1-CODE RUNNER drops to make his first start for this barn and his initial race at Hawthorne. He finished up the track in his last three starts but facing somewhat easier helps his chances.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Double Thunder - 7-2 1 Dick Best - 4-5 6 City of God - 5-1

I might be crazy but going to pick against the probable short-odds favorite. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER is at the top of his game right now. This daylight winner of last was narrowly defeated in his first two local starts. He’s probably going to be racing right off the early pace though he is probably quick enough to go for the lead if they wanted to send him. I like that he’s had multiple trips over the track. That just might make enough of a difference. There’s little doubt that 1-DICK BEST will be favored. This California shipper just wired the field at Santa Anita two weeks ago. However, sometimes runners shipping from California have to acclimate. 6-CITY OF GOD can share late. He owns decent speed but don’t think he can keep up with the top pair in the early going. He has shown late run in the past. Might be able to pick up the pieces.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 I'm Box Office - 9-5 1 Lady Helena - 3-1 7 Twas Lola - 12-1 8 Leipzig - 8-1

6-I’M BOX OFFICE drops into claimers for the first time. She’s also adding blinkers. She had a lot of things going against her in last, including stumbling at the start and chasing a horse loose on the lead. Her barn has a 27% win rate with runners making their second start off the layoff. Guessing her attack will come late. 1-LADY HELENA makes her first start for this barn and her first trip on this course. Beaten favorite of last adds blinkers which should only serve to increase her natural speed. Might never look back. Not sure about 7-T’WAS LOLA on turf but think she’s capable of surprising if this race does get moved to dirt. Stretches out. Possesses dangerous speed.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 W W Hotshot - 9-5 3 Macron - 10-1 1 Went West - 3-1 5 Fit to Fly - 6-1

4-W W HOTSHOT is certainly good right now. Winner of last two and four of last five (dating back to last year) has also been great here. With his speed, he is capable of going right for the lead or tracking the pace and he has been highly effective at doing both. 3-MACRON has been racing on a tougher circuit. Though he is making his local debut, he’s been training here for a long time. He is capable of dynamic speed. They might try to steal this on the lead. 1-WENT WEST is two-for-two since getting claimed by this barn. Although he has shown good early speed, the name of his game is coming on late. The probable fast pace of this race could allow him to do just that. 5-FIT TO FLY makes his first start of the year but this speedball races for the top barn and they bring their runners ready.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Dragon Drew - 4-1 12 Simple Logic - 8-1 8 A P Blazing Green - 5-1

This turf race has few dedicated turf runners so the field should hold together even if the race gets switched to the main track. I would have to think that 6-DRAGON DREW might be the one to beat. He chased the very speedy Tightrope in last in that runner’s record-setting performance. He’s had five wins on grass including three at this distance. Might hold off the rest of the speed. 12-SIMPLE LOGIC comes on late. He’s probably better going longer, he has finisher second in eight grass races for a reason, but a heated speed duel would set things up for him. 8-A P BLAZING GREEN just broke his maiden but he has some good turf races prior. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 Sweet Crystal - 5-1 1 Betty's Secret - 5-2 3 Top Look - 7-2

9-SWEET CRYSTAL is quick from the gate. She finished second in both start this meet after leading through the early stages. Gets the top jock in the irons today. Maybe that will make the difference. 1-BETTY’S SECRET might not be quite as quick as top choice but she’s shipping in from Fanduel riding a two race win streak and she does have the advantage of the inside post. 3-TOP LOOK drops and heads back to the main track. She showed little in that turf race but had been in good form on dirt. Can bounce back.

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 6:22 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Gianno - 5-2 4 I O Fedro - 7-2 5 Black Russian - 15-1

2-GIANNO finished second in last when making his turf debut. Races for the top barn. Had a bullet drill since that race. The extra quarter mile of this race would seem to work in his favor. 4-I O FEDRO has been entered many times but for some reason, his races never went. Finally gets his chance. He’s been training well and runs for some of the top connections. 5-BLACK RUSSIAN is another coming off a narrow miss in a shorter turf sprint. He was flying late but ran out of real estate. He’ll have plenty ground to work with today.