Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 SILKY WARRIOR is eligible for this condition only with the recent 5/19 win in for the $5k tag. She could present the class edge on that front and while many arguably above condition here her 7 lifetime wins stands out. She also closed into a Very Slow early pace to get the win last out and should have an honest pace with the Fire Contention and higher 84 SpeedRate here.

That pace scenario upgrades #5 NO NANNETTE NO as well as her current form into this race and par where she has been competitive in the past. Today’s par is identical to the 4/13 event and lower than the two races she exits since. 

The race dynamic is a shift from R1 especially with the lower SpeedRate to upgrade runners with tactic speed. Even with #5 IRONMAN RICHIE as one that is a Large Square (lack of finish) in this field, his early speed can compensate here. Furthermore, he is upgraded with the B- OptixGRADE and 63 figure at this level back on 6/1 and from the X_FLOW WIDE trip he exits on 6/22.

#6 FUTURE VISION also holds buried form at this level also earning a B- OptixGRADE in that 6/1 common race and off the OptixNOTES subtle “trips” since. Looking at the Plot he has enough tactical speed to sit off the Q1 first flight (which does include their stablemate, #2 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN) and look for first run.

The Plot position and shape is similar for #3 MINNESOTA MOON; one that deservingly will get another chance on this circuit coming in off a dominant (B+) N2L win last month at FAN. As far as his races here earlier this season, he held his form though unable to land the right trip and in higher par events than today. 

Keeping with the Plot (pace) theme with the first turf race on the card; the Sun Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate should assist runners from just off the pace and could play against the two front runners #2 ALL CHOKED UP and #5 MAHONEY ROAD, runners that also should find public support.

#6 COTE D’IVOIRE picks up J. Felix, a rider that has been riding this course with near perfection this season for their local debut. He comes into this race with current form and placed at a level where they can compete for the top spot. The BTP effort last out was sneaky good with the top two finishing together at the wire and COTE in a tight photo for show.

The trip for #7 STORM’S REFLECTION will be up to R. Blanche with the change from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance for this race. His form fit here off the races this season and every other pattern that pairs with the grass could see them back to the 6/16 trip and that effort and 80 figure sits as one of the stronger recent efforts in this field. 

Going back to #5 COME ON LADY in this race and with the return to statebred company. The change in class placed against her last out and taking that race with a grain of salt given the level and following the SLOG was in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for her best. She returns today not only with the class change but also with the blinkers on and a rider change to D. Cohen to suggest intent all around.

#1 LALY should be favored with the effort two back on 6/1 where she earned a strong figure and set the pace to hold for place. She might have been carried by the inside profile (BIAS) and at 18-1 that afternoon much shorter can be projected here. 

On figures and class the GREEN indicators in the Past 3 Runlines present a massive edge to #6 CROSSANNA in this field. She recorded a B OptixGRADE, a winning effort for the level in both starts with the BTL BLANKET finish in her 5/12 debut and came back with a B making a WIDE RUSH and MOVE through TRAFFIC to earn place behind a solid rival in Off the Lam, last month.

Cohen will shift to stablemate #4 DEAL’ EM AND WEEP solid effort in her debut from the 6/15 common race making a MOVE X_FLOW though a touch lighter overall with the B- OptixGRADE separating the two. #2 THUNDERSTRIKE is an interesting new face and arguably one we might not have seen the best from yet. She could be given a pass for the debut opening week at Oaklawn that required some time before returning last month. In both races, she was “struck” with the outside post and a WIDE trip as a result.

In terms of number both #3 POSSESSION and #5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN earned a solid figure in their efforts last week, though find a rise in class here to down grade the number. The figures also stand out for #7 ERNESTINA one that will make her first start around two turns coming in from GP and to this point there has not been intention for the distance change. 

J. Loveberry returns to make a Hawthorne appears and holds just one mount on the card, #1 LITTLE POISON. That intention is tough to ignore and similar for the capable connections. The barn will also send out another IL-bred in #4 ARRIVEDERCCI to make her debut and one that has a steady series of works and longer published half-mile move, the bullet (1/8) from the gate last Friday. The spacing of their works is preferred over some of the other FTS in this field.

In terms of experience, #6 LIT MISS HAT TRICK chased a solid debut L. Rivelli winner, Shezafunkydrummer in her debut last month; #5 FAITH HOPE N LOVE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance though found herself compromised (TROUBLE_S)  at the break; #8 AMAZING ANGIE also finishing second of debut made a RUSH to chase the pacesetting winner, Into Golden Road last month at FAN though still must show where she fits on class – worth noting she shares some similar published times/dates to stablemate #7 SPICY VALENTINA making her debut here.

#3 FOURFIFTYSEVEN should move up with the return to the TURF as was intended back on 5/26 and overall upside returning from the 6/16 event racing X_FLOW. Her form and figures from the Turfway events fit on par and earned a follow racing in a tougher spot back in April at KEE and the IMPROVE Projection from the 5/1 HS Indy race.

#4 SPICY ITALIAN will make a seasonal debut here and finding some class relief with a return to this circuit closing out 2023 in KY. She was unable to translate her form to anything competitive at the higher conditions, though the turf allowance figure in September fits on par and upgraded from the TRAFFIC trip on 11/4 that was follow up by the 250-day layoff she returns from here.

Those two being lightly raced and upside on trips can improve off their top efforts and those numbers sit in line with the proven #5 COMMAND POINT one that has the win and the higher figures sitting on top of her past performances, however, takes a big rise (higher par) than the races she exits this season and off the figures could be an underlay here. The class is closer to a lateral move for #2 ENZI showing up on this circuit for the new connections and given a wait-and-see here. 

#5 PARKER has turned in competitive races all season and should be sitting on a peak effort looking for that win here today. He comes into this race with an every other pattern, a sprint-to-route that has paired higher figures and B- OptixGRADES this season.

#1 ALPINE GHOST could find their way back to winning ways with Plot position along with some subtle changes for this race. He will reunite with E. Giles here, the win rider from back on 4/28 when given an inside assertive trip, a similar could be projected today. After that win, they were not recovered along with the WIDE trips and FLOW upgrade back on 6/9 to give some consideration for a “form reversal” here.

#7 MAQAMAT is preferred of the two B. Vanden Berg runners looking at the Plot and current form for the two with #4 KENNESAW first off the claim showing up in this race. At potentially longer odds #8 WILDWOOD MINISTRY is preferred as well the two showing a similar position/shape on the Plot and the class change and return to A. Centeno suggests some intent here. 

#6 SHADY MCGEE looks well placed as he makes his second start on this circuit and class relief from the allowance last month. In addition to the higher class, he was caught WIDE from off the Very Slow early and late pace with the front running winner, EYE ON RYE taking the field gate-to-wire and the field spaced out at the line. Looking at the Standard Plot and the pace should follow the Sun Contention and assist SHADY MCGEE further with a trip and should present value here as well with both #2 RIVER REDEMPTION and #3 RED HORNET likely to get play for their connections and coming off wins.

The Plot can also make a “longshot” case for #10 HONEST TO GOODNESS on Standard (current form) sitting in a similar position to SHADY MCGEE as they make their second start off the layoff. The Surface/Distance could give a similar longshot look to #5 SON OF GRACE and #7 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE (though they might not be a longshot on the board as required) sitting with a similar position to SHADY MCGEE as well. 

They will likely be hard pressed to beat 1-SILKY WARRIOR (IRE) in here as she comes off a short layoff and an impressive win in her last. She has enough pace to rate close early in a field that doesn't look like any are committed to the front. 5-NO NANNETTE NO is going to need some pace to chase as she looks to rally late. She comes out of a tough starter event in her last and picks up a strong finisher in Cohen in the saddle. 3-CAIRO SUMMER is one who could look to show speed in this spot. She was also a fine winner in her last as she chased a slow pace. In here, she could look to inherit the lead and if she does they will likely be going very slowly on the front end.

A chance at a bit of a price in here with the 4-OVER CALENDARED as he has steadily improved in recent starts. He picks up the bug Slevinsky in the saddle as he could find some pace to close into. 3-MINNESOTA MOON ran a big race at Fairmount last out as he rated in the second flight early before rallying in the turn and drawing clear. That's the likely trip he will look for once again as he should be another to benefit from a contested early pace. 5-IRONMAN RICHIE ran very well in his first start off the layoff but disappointed in his most recent race. He runs his best when on or near the lead as he could find some company upfront.

Off the last couple it is going to be tough to beat 2-ALL CHOKED UP today. He showed speed in each of his last two and may have just been done in by the yielding going in his last. If the course is firm it should benefit speed as he may make the top and never look back, 5-MAHONEY ROAD stalked and pounced for a nice win on the main track in his last. It has been a year since he was last on the turf but he showed speed in that start at Ellis last July before giving way late. Don't expect him to be too far back in here. 4-LAWMAKER is another that has had success on the turf as a firm course would be preferred. If he can find a stalking spot, he should be able to contend late.

State-bred maidens in the fourth as there may be a chance for an upset. I'm looking to 2-MURPHY'S COMBO as she debuts with Lasix. She has worked well at Fairmount leading into this spot for a barn that has had early success with horses in recent years. 1-LALY is the one to beat as she returns to the state-bred ranks today. She showed speed in her last couple and has the potential to make the top from the inside. 5-COME ON LADY ran well in starts two and three back as she tracked the leaders and ran on late. She held her own against open company in her last and should take her share of action in here.

Two Block runners in here and interesting to see that Cohen is aboard 4-DEAL'EM AND WEEP after riding Crossanna last out. Deal'em and Weep stalked in that debut start and showed some late run. She raced through some traffic trouble late in that spot and figures to have learned a lot from that effort. 5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN could be a bit of a sleeper on the lead as she potentially could go unchallenged early. She does step up in class run has run some solid races and the price will be right. 6-CROSSANNA rated and rallied in her first two starts and she will figure to contend once again. She will need some pace to chase so let's see if she can get home in time.

Competitive allowance bunch in this spot as some newcomers could be factors. 2-ENZI is one of those as she gets Lasix for the first time as she makes her second turf start. She will need some pace to chase as she figures to close with a rush. 1-R KATIEBUG is one with speed as she may try to beat Spicy Delight to the top. She ran well in her last as the mile distance should suit her well. 4-SPICY ITALIAN could bring Wayne Catalano closer to 3,000 career training wins as she returns off the layoff. She has worked well toward her return and has some past races where she was able to show some speed.

A chance for an upset in here as 8-WILDWOOD MINISTRY comes off a pair of races against much tougher in his last two. He drops to the lowest level of his career and figures to rate close in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 7-MAQAMAT comes back to Hawthorne today as he could potentially show some speed in here. If he is able to shake loose early, he may never loo back. 5-PARKER has tactical speed as he finished just behind Maqamat two start back. He has tactical speed and may look to rate and run on late.

A good turf bunch to close out the card. 6-SHADY MCGEE takes the class drop into here as he will need some pace to chase. He should find it in this spot as the distance suits and Cohen picks up the call. 9-WICKED SUPRISE is one of those with speed as he ran well at this level in his last. He made the top in that spot and battled into the lane. Let's see if he can shake loose once again. 3-RED HORNET was a good winner against conditioned company in his last. He likes the distance and is another that will benefit if the pace is pressured.

5-NANNETTE NO was in too deep in last and her prior race was too short. She’s dropping to the right level for this start. Races at her preferred distance. Should be tough. 6-EMITYAZZ has been knocking at the door. She’s been getting beaten by many of these rivals but not losing by much. The switch to the apprentice rider with her seven-pound weight allowance could be a great help. 1-SILKY WARRIOR and 3-CAIRO SUMMER are both coming off victories over similar. It wouldn’t surprise to see either back in the winner’s circle.

3-MINNESOTA MOON has never strung two good races together but he looked exceptional in last and he’s meeting many in poor form. 4-OVERCALENDARED finished third in last. That field seemed tougher than this one. 5-IRONMAN RICHIE usually displays better speed than any of his rivals. Might steal this on the lead.

6-COTE D’IVOIRE might not fit the perfect definition of a closer but he does look like one of the few in here capable of making a late move and that could be essential in a race containing so much early speed. 2-ALL CHOKED UP will try to lead throughout. He faded to second in last after leading from the start but that race was contested on a yielding turf course and the course for this one should be plenty firm. On the other hand, there are a few rivals in here who might decide to try for the lead. He’ll have to be at his best to put them away and have enough left to hold off the late movers. 7-STORM’S REFLECTION is another that likes the front end but he came from out of it to score his last turf victory.

5-COME ON LADY adds blinkers and returns to the state bred ranks. She didn’t show much in her two races against open company but she did finish third in her two starts against Illinois breds. Should get a lively pace ahead of her with all the speed in this race. Might edge by. 7-WAHIDA OF MARDAN tired in her lone start but she was meeting open maiden claimers going seven and a half on the lawn. Faces state breds today. Cuts back in distance while making her dirt debut. Could have something left after fighting for the lead. 1-LALY might be the quickest of these. She tired in last when facing open company but she did lead most of the way in her previous start against Illinois breds.

Hard to get past the two Block-trained runners. 4-DEAL’EM N WEEP finished a length behind 6-CROSSANNA in last but she was making her career debut and it isn’t unusual to see a runner from this barn improve in their second start (23%). Couldn’t really separate them but Cohen, one of the barn’s regular riders, did choose this one even though he rode Crossanna to a narrow loss in last. Crossanna has had two terrific races but narrowly lost both. She finished a fast-finishing fourth in her debut but wound up less than a length back. In her last she finished second, only a neck behind. The slightly shorter distance would seem to favor Deal’em N Weep slightly more but this duo has a great chance to take the first two spots in the finish order. 7-ERNESTINA could be the best of the speed. She’s been racing in shorter sprints. With this stretch out she could find herself alone on the early lead.

4-ARRIVEDERCCI is one of the two Rivelli-trained runners in this race and she seems to be working the better of the two. The barn has a 24% win rate with first timers and 22% with babies. 1-LITTLE POISON is working nearly as well. Her two three-furlong gate drills were brilliant. Her rider, back riding here on Thursdays and trainer have won about 30% of the time when they have teamed up over the last few years. Don’t ignore 6-LIL MISS HAT TRICK. She finished second in her debut to a runner that went on to win the $100,000 Prairie Gold Lassie in Iowa. 

5-COMMAND POINT is seemingly overmatched. However, she’s been as consistent as you can get, no matter what level. The pace of this race is likely to set up for a closer and she fits that description better than any of her rivals. 1-R KATIEBUG got the trip I though she was going to get in last. However, she got beaten to the punch. She got outbroke at the start by Wanda Strong and was never able to catch that rival. She’s probably facing more speedy rivals today but that should be to her benefit since she really doesn’t need the early lead. 4-SPICY ITALIAN showed little in her two turf starts but she was racing at Churchill and probably meeting far tougher fields. Could be ready in her first start of the year. 

8-WILDWOOD MINISTRY meets far easier with the drop in class. He hasn’t shown much so far this year but could get things turned around at this level. 7-MAQAMAT is the one to beat. He’s a versatile runner capable of running well on or off the meet. He was in too tough in last downstate but he’s back at the right level today. 6-IDEA MAN just missed after a furious stretch run. He just happened to be outfinished. Don’t know if the pace of this race will set up quite as well but he certainly figures after that last effort.

2-RIVER REDEMPTION just won at this level. In fact, he won four of his last five turf races and is always competitive on the lawn. Meets a couple droppers that could give him some trouble but can still take care of business. 6-SHADY MCGEE beat only one in his local debut but was facing a considerably tougher field. He finished second in his previous two in Indiana while meeting rivals similar to these. Late runner isn’t likely to get much of a pace to run at but he did race in a slow-paced race two starts back and still managed to get up for second. 3-RED HORNET is another coming off a victory. He won at a slightly higher claiming level. Like top pick, he should never be too far back. Wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated. 

Race 6:  4 - 2 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4 / 1,3,4,8 / 4,7 / 2,7,9  ($12)

Babies going 4 ½ at Hawthorne means one thing: look out for a Rivelli runner. He’s got two in here, but I much prefer #4 Arrivedercci (8-5), who should love up to her name and say “goodbye, until we meet again” to the rest of the field. She’s by the awfully-fast Good Bye Greg, who Rivelli trained, out of a turf sprinting mare Case Cracker. A clean break should be all the filly needs…and how about the bullet 46 and change work. Yikes.

Race 7:  8 - 4 - 1

#8 Calisue (6-1) is a bit one-paced and “grindy” with her running style. But similar to an earlier race on the card, she’s a dirt horse while others might prefer turf. I’m hoping the #1 and #7 both stay in the race to create at least some early fractions that are reasonable, otherwise jockey Felix will need to be more aggressive from the outset. 

Race 8:  7 - 4 - 1

I have a lot of respect for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, who knows how to claim a horse and put them in the right spot. She has two horses in this race that fit the profile, but I prefer ML-favorite #7 Maqamat (2-1). He’s the class of the field and jockey Felix should be putting him in the game from the outset like he did two back. This is a weak field, and any improvement at all should send Maqamat to the Winner’s Circle. 

Race 9:  2 - 7 - 9

With little dirt form to analyze, I’ll take a shot in the finale with the projected speed of the speed, #2 River Redemption (4-1). He’s 3/9 lifetime on fast dirt and has apprentice jockey Slevinsky who I hope will be instructed to send hard and attempt to wire the field.