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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 11th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 SILKY WARRIOR is eligible for this condition only with the recent 5/19 win in for the $5k tag. She could present the class edge on that front and while many arguably above condition here her 7 lifetime wins stands out. She also closed into a Very Slow early pace to get the win last out and should have an honest pace with the Fire Contention and higher 84 SpeedRate here.

That pace scenario upgrades #5 NO NANNETTE NO as well as her current form into this race and par where she has been competitive in the past. Today’s par is identical to the 4/13 event and lower than the two races she exits since. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The race dynamic is a shift from R1 especially with the lower SpeedRate to upgrade runners with tactic speed. Even with #5 IRONMAN RICHIE as one that is a Large Square (lack of finish) in this field, his early speed can compensate here. Furthermore, he is upgraded with the B- OptixGRADE and 63 figure at this level back on 6/1 and from the X_FLOW WIDE trip he exits on 6/22.

#6 FUTURE VISION also holds buried form at this level also earning a B- OptixGRADE in that 6/1 common race and off the OptixNOTES subtle “trips” since. Looking at the Plot he has enough tactical speed to sit off the Q1 first flight (which does include their stablemate, #2 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN) and look for first run.

The Plot position and shape is similar for #3 MINNESOTA MOON; one that deservingly will get another chance on this circuit coming in off a dominant (B+) N2L win last month at FAN. As far as his races here earlier this season, he held his form though unable to land the right trip and in higher par events than today. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Keeping with the Plot (pace) theme with the first turf race on the card; the Sun Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate should assist runners from just off the pace and could play against the two front runners #2 ALL CHOKED UP and #5 MAHONEY ROAD, runners that also should find public support.

#6 COTE D’IVOIRE picks up J. Felix, a rider that has been riding this course with near perfection this season for their local debut. He comes into this race with current form and placed at a level where they can compete for the top spot. The BTP effort last out was sneaky good with the top two finishing together at the wire and COTE in a tight photo for show.

The trip for #7 STORM’S REFLECTION will be up to R. Blanche with the change from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance for this race. His form fit here off the races this season and every other pattern that pairs with the grass could see them back to the 6/16 trip and that effort and 80 figure sits as one of the stronger recent efforts in this field. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Going back to #5 COME ON LADY in this race and with the return to statebred company. The change in class placed against her last out and taking that race with a grain of salt given the level and following the SLOG was in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for her best. She returns today not only with the class change but also with the blinkers on and a rider change to D. Cohen to suggest intent all around.

#1 LALY should be favored with the effort two back on 6/1 where she earned a strong figure and set the pace to hold for place. She might have been carried by the inside profile (BIAS) and at 18-1 that afternoon much shorter can be projected here. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

On figures and class the GREEN indicators in the Past 3 Runlines present a massive edge to #6 CROSSANNA in this field. She recorded a B OptixGRADE, a winning effort for the level in both starts with the BTL BLANKET finish in her 5/12 debut and came back with a B making a WIDE RUSH and MOVE through TRAFFIC to earn place behind a solid rival in Off the Lam, last month.

Cohen will shift to stablemate #4 DEAL’ EM AND WEEP solid effort in her debut from the 6/15 common race making a MOVE X_FLOW though a touch lighter overall with the B- OptixGRADE separating the two. #2 THUNDERSTRIKE is an interesting new face and arguably one we might not have seen the best from yet. She could be given a pass for the debut opening week at Oaklawn that required some time before returning last month. In both races, she was “struck” with the outside post and a WIDE trip as a result.

In terms of number both #3 POSSESSION and #5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN earned a solid figure in their efforts last week, though find a rise in class here to down grade the number. The figures also stand out for #7 ERNESTINA one that will make her first start around two turns coming in from GP and to this point there has not been intention for the distance change. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

J. Loveberry returns to make a Hawthorne appears and holds just one mount on the card, #1 LITTLE POISON. That intention is tough to ignore and similar for the capable connections. The barn will also send out another IL-bred in #4 ARRIVEDERCCI to make her debut and one that has a steady series of works and longer published half-mile move, the bullet (1/8) from the gate last Friday. The spacing of their works is preferred over some of the other FTS in this field.

In terms of experience, #6 LIT MISS HAT TRICK chased a solid debut L. Rivelli winner, Shezafunkydrummer in her debut last month; #5 FAITH HOPE N LOVE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance though found herself compromised (TROUBLE_S)  at the break; #8 AMAZING ANGIE also finishing second of debut made a RUSH to chase the pacesetting winner, Into Golden Road last month at FAN though still must show where she fits on class – worth noting she shares some similar published times/dates to stablemate #7 SPICY VALENTINA making her debut here.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 FOURFIFTYSEVEN should move up with the return to the TURF as was intended back on 5/26 and overall upside returning from the 6/16 event racing X_FLOW. Her form and figures from the Turfway events fit on par and earned a follow racing in a tougher spot back in April at KEE and the IMPROVE Projection from the 5/1 HS Indy race.

#4 SPICY ITALIAN will make a seasonal debut here and finding some class relief with a return to this circuit closing out 2023 in KY. She was unable to translate her form to anything competitive at the higher conditions, though the turf allowance figure in September fits on par and upgraded from the TRAFFIC trip on 11/4 that was follow up by the 250-day layoff she returns from here.

Those two being lightly raced and upside on trips can improve off their top efforts and those numbers sit in line with the proven #5 COMMAND POINT one that has the win and the higher figures sitting on top of her past performances, however, takes a big rise (higher par) than the races she exits this season and off the figures could be an underlay here. The class is closer to a lateral move for #2 ENZI showing up on this circuit for the new connections and given a wait-and-see here. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PARKER has turned in competitive races all season and should be sitting on a peak effort looking for that win here today. He comes into this race with an every other pattern, a sprint-to-route that has paired higher figures and B- OptixGRADES this season.

#1 ALPINE GHOST could find their way back to winning ways with Plot position along with some subtle changes for this race. He will reunite with E. Giles here, the win rider from back on 4/28 when given an inside assertive trip, a similar could be projected today. After that win, they were not recovered along with the WIDE trips and FLOW upgrade back on 6/9 to give some consideration for a “form reversal” here.

#7 MAQAMAT is preferred of the two B. Vanden Berg runners looking at the Plot and current form for the two with #4 KENNESAW first off the claim showing up in this race. At potentially longer odds #8 WILDWOOD MINISTRY is preferred as well the two showing a similar position/shape on the Plot and the class change and return to A. Centeno suggests some intent here. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SHADY MCGEE looks well placed as he makes his second start on this circuit and class relief from the allowance last month. In addition to the higher class, he was caught WIDE from off the Very Slow early and late pace with the front running winner, EYE ON RYE taking the field gate-to-wire and the field spaced out at the line. Looking at the Standard Plot and the pace should follow the Sun Contention and assist SHADY MCGEE further with a trip and should present value here as well with both #2 RIVER REDEMPTION and #3 RED HORNET likely to get play for their connections and coming off wins.

The Plot can also make a “longshot” case for #10 HONEST TO GOODNESS on Standard (current form) sitting in a similar position to SHADY MCGEE as they make their second start off the layoff. The Surface/Distance could give a similar longshot look to #5 SON OF GRACE and #7 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE (though they might not be a longshot on the board as required) sitting with a similar position to SHADY MCGEE as well.