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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 11th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 No Nannette No - 3-1 6 Emityaaz - 5-1 1 Silky Warrior (IRE) - 1-1 3 Cairo Summer - 6-1

5-NANNETTE NO was in too deep in last and her prior race was too short. She’s dropping to the right level for this start. Races at her preferred distance. Should be tough. 6-EMITYAZZ has been knocking at the door. She’s been getting beaten by many of these rivals but not losing by much. The switch to the apprentice rider with her seven-pound weight allowance could be a great help. 1-SILKY WARRIOR and 3-CAIRO SUMMER are both coming off victories over similar. It wouldn’t surprise to see either back in the winner’s circle.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Minnesota Moon - 9-5 4 Over Calendared - 5-1 5 Ironman Richie - 2-1

3-MINNESOTA MOON has never strung two good races together but he looked exceptional in last and he’s meeting many in poor form. 4-OVERCALENDARED finished third in last. That field seemed tougher than this one. 5-IRONMAN RICHIE usually displays better speed than any of his rivals. Might steal this on the lead.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Cote d'Ivoire - 7-2 2 All Choked Up - 8-5 7 Storm's Reflection - 5-1

6-COTE D’IVOIRE might not fit the perfect definition of a closer but he does look like one of the few in here capable of making a late move and that could be essential in a race containing so much early speed. 2-ALL CHOKED UP will try to lead throughout. He faded to second in last after leading from the start but that race was contested on a yielding turf course and the course for this one should be plenty firm. On the other hand, there are a few rivals in here who might decide to try for the lead. He’ll have to be at his best to put them away and have enough left to hold off the late movers. 7-STORM’S REFLECTION is another that likes the front end but he came from out of it to score his last turf victory.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Come On Lady - 3-1 7 Wahida of Mardan - 10-1 1 Laly - 9-5

5-COME ON LADY adds blinkers and returns to the state bred ranks. She didn’t show much in her two races against open company but she did finish third in her two starts against Illinois breds. Should get a lively pace ahead of her with all the speed in this race. Might edge by. 7-WAHIDA OF MARDAN tired in her lone start but she was meeting open maiden claimers going seven and a half on the lawn. Faces state breds today. Cuts back in distance while making her dirt debut. Could have something left after fighting for the lead. 1-LALY might be the quickest of these. She tired in last when facing open company but she did lead most of the way in her previous start against Illinois breds.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Deal'em and Weep - 5-2 6 Crossanna - 9-5 7 Ernestina - 7-2

Hard to get past the two Block-trained runners. 4-DEAL’EM N WEEP finished a length behind 6-CROSSANNA in last but she was making her career debut and it isn’t unusual to see a runner from this barn improve in their second start (23%). Couldn’t really separate them but Cohen, one of the barn’s regular riders, did choose this one even though he rode Crossanna to a narrow loss in last. Crossanna has had two terrific races but narrowly lost both. She finished a fast-finishing fourth in her debut but wound up less than a length back. In her last she finished second, only a neck behind. The slightly shorter distance would seem to favor Deal’em N Weep slightly more but this duo has a great chance to take the first two spots in the finish order. 7-ERNESTINA could be the best of the speed. She’s been racing in shorter sprints. With this stretch out she could find herself alone on the early lead.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Arrivedercci - 8-5 1 Little Poison - 9-2 6 Lit Miss Hat Trick - 5-1

4-ARRIVEDERCCI is one of the two Rivelli-trained runners in this race and she seems to be working the better of the two. The barn has a 24% win rate with first timers and 22% with babies. 1-LITTLE POISON is working nearly as well. Her two three-furlong gate drills were brilliant. Her rider, back riding here on Thursdays and trainer have won about 30% of the time when they have teamed up over the last few years. Don’t ignore 6-LIL MISS HAT TRICK. She finished second in her debut to a runner that went on to win the $100,000 Prairie Gold Lassie in Iowa. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Command Point - 9-2 1 R Katiebug - 5-1 4 Spicy Italian - 5-2

5-COMMAND POINT is seemingly overmatched. However, she’s been as consistent as you can get, no matter what level. The pace of this race is likely to set up for a closer and she fits that description better than any of her rivals. 1-R KATIEBUG got the trip I though she was going to get in last. However, she got beaten to the punch. She got outbroke at the start by Wanda Strong and was never able to catch that rival. She’s probably facing more speedy rivals today but that should be to her benefit since she really doesn’t need the early lead. 4-SPICY ITALIAN showed little in her two turf starts but she was racing at Churchill and probably meeting far tougher fields. Could be ready in her first start of the year. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Wildwood Ministry - 5-1 7 Maqamat - 2-1 6 Idea Man - 9-2

8-WILDWOOD MINISTRY meets far easier with the drop in class. He hasn’t shown much so far this year but could get things turned around at this level. 7-MAQAMAT is the one to beat. He’s a versatile runner capable of running well on or off the meet. He was in too tough in last downstate but he’s back at the right level today. 6-IDEA MAN just missed after a furious stretch run. He just happened to be outfinished. Don’t know if the pace of this race will set up quite as well but he certainly figures after that last effort.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 River Redemption - 4-1 6 Shady McGee (IRE) - 5-2 3 Red Hornet - 7-2

2-RIVER REDEMPTION just won at this level. In fact, he won four of his last five turf races and is always competitive on the lawn. Meets a couple droppers that could give him some trouble but can still take care of business. 6-SHADY MCGEE beat only one in his local debut but was facing a considerably tougher field. He finished second in his previous two in Indiana while meeting rivals similar to these. Late runner isn’t likely to get much of a pace to run at but he did race in a slow-paced race two starts back and still managed to get up for second. 3-RED HORNET is another coming off a victory. He won at a slightly higher claiming level. Like top pick, he should never be too far back. Wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated.