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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 11th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 6:  4 - 2 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4 / 1,3,4,8 / 4,7 / 2,7,9  ($12)

Babies going 4 ½ at Hawthorne means one thing: look out for a Rivelli runner. He’s got two in here, but I much prefer #4 Arrivedercci (8-5), who should love up to her name and say “goodbye, until we meet again” to the rest of the field. She’s by the awfully-fast Good Bye Greg, who Rivelli trained, out of a turf sprinting mare Case Cracker. A clean break should be all the filly needs…and how about the bullet 46 and change work. Yikes.

Race 7:  8 - 4 - 1

#8 Calisue (6-1) is a bit one-paced and “grindy” with her running style. But similar to an earlier race on the card, she’s a dirt horse while others might prefer turf. I’m hoping the #1 and #7 both stay in the race to create at least some early fractions that are reasonable, otherwise jockey Felix will need to be more aggressive from the outset. 

Race 8:  7 - 4 - 1

I have a lot of respect for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, who knows how to claim a horse and put them in the right spot. She has two horses in this race that fit the profile, but I prefer ML-favorite #7 Maqamat (2-1). He’s the class of the field and jockey Felix should be putting him in the game from the outset like he did two back. This is a weak field, and any improvement at all should send Maqamat to the Winner’s Circle. 

Race 9:  2 - 7 - 9

With little dirt form to analyze, I’ll take a shot in the finale with the projected speed of the speed, #2 River Redemption (4-1). He’s 3/9 lifetime on fast dirt and has apprentice jockey Slevinsky who I hope will be instructed to send hard and attempt to wire the field.