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Thu July 11th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:10 PM CST
5-NANNETTE NO was in too deep in last and her prior race
was too short. She’s dropping to the right level for this start. Races at her
preferred distance. Should be tough. 6-EMITYAZZ has been knocking at the door.
She’s been getting beaten by many of these rivals but not losing by much. The switch
to the apprentice rider with her seven-pound weight allowance could be a great
help. 1-SILKY WARRIOR and 3-CAIRO SUMMER are both coming off victories over
similar. It wouldn’t surprise to see either back in the winner’s circle.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:38 PM CST
3-MINNESOTA MOON has never strung two good races together
but he looked exceptional in last and he’s meeting many in poor form. 4-OVERCALENDARED
finished third in last. That field seemed tougher than this one. 5-IRONMAN
RICHIE usually displays better speed than any of his rivals. Might steal this
on the lead.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:06 PM CST
6-COTE D’IVOIRE might not fit the perfect definition of a
closer but he does look like one of the few in here capable of making a late
move and that could be essential in a race containing so much early speed. 2-ALL
CHOKED UP will try to lead throughout. He faded to second in last after leading
from the start but that race was contested on a yielding turf course and the course
for this one should be plenty firm. On the other hand, there are a few rivals
in here who might decide to try for the lead. He’ll have to be at his best to
put them away and have enough left to hold off the late movers. 7-STORM’S
REFLECTION is another that likes the front end but he came from out of it to
score his last turf victory.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:34 PM CST
5-COME ON LADY adds blinkers and returns to the state
bred ranks. She didn’t show much in her two races against open company but she
did finish third in her two starts against Illinois breds. Should get a lively
pace ahead of her with all the speed in this race. Might edge by. 7-WAHIDA OF
MARDAN tired in her lone start but she was meeting open maiden claimers going
seven and a half on the lawn. Faces state breds today. Cuts back in distance
while making her dirt debut. Could have something left after fighting for the
lead. 1-LALY might be the quickest of these. She tired in last when facing open
company but she did lead most of the way in her previous start against Illinois
breds.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Hard to get past the two Block-trained runners. 4-DEAL’EM
N WEEP finished a length behind 6-CROSSANNA in last but she was making her
career debut and it isn’t unusual to see a runner from this barn improve in
their second start (23%). Couldn’t really separate them but Cohen, one of the
barn’s regular riders, did choose this one even though he rode Crossanna to a
narrow loss in last. Crossanna has had two terrific races but narrowly lost
both. She finished a fast-finishing fourth in her debut but wound up less than
a length back. In her last she finished second, only a neck behind. The
slightly shorter distance would seem to favor Deal’em N Weep slightly more but
this duo has a great chance to take the first two spots in the finish order. 7-ERNESTINA
could be the best of the speed. She’s been racing in shorter sprints. With this
stretch out she could find herself alone on the early lead.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
4-ARRIVEDERCCI is one of the two Rivelli-trained runners
in this race and she seems to be working the better of the two. The barn has a
24% win rate with first timers and 22% with babies. 1-LITTLE POISON is working
nearly as well. Her two three-furlong gate drills were brilliant. Her rider,
back riding here on Thursdays and trainer have won about 30% of the time when
they have teamed up over the last few years. Don’t ignore 6-LIL MISS HAT TRICK.
She finished second in her debut to a runner that went on to win the $100,000
Prairie Gold Lassie in Iowa.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
5-COMMAND POINT is seemingly overmatched. However, she’s
been as consistent as you can get, no matter what level. The pace of this race
is likely to set up for a closer and she fits that description better than any
of her rivals. 1-R KATIEBUG got the trip I though she was going to get in last.
However, she got beaten to the punch. She got outbroke at the start by Wanda Strong
and was never able to catch that rival. She’s probably facing more speedy
rivals today but that should be to her benefit since she really doesn’t need
the early lead. 4-SPICY ITALIAN showed little in her two turf starts but she
was racing at Churchill and probably meeting far tougher fields. Could be ready
in her first start of the year.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:26 PM CST
8-WILDWOOD MINISTRY meets far easier with the drop in
class. He hasn’t shown much so far this year but could get things turned around
at this level. 7-MAQAMAT is the one to beat. He’s a versatile runner capable of
running well on or off the meet. He was in too tough in last downstate but he’s
back at the right level today. 6-IDEA MAN just missed after a furious stretch
run. He just happened to be outfinished. Don’t know if the pace of this race
will set up quite as well but he certainly figures after that last effort.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 5:54 PM CST
2-RIVER REDEMPTION just won at this level. In fact, he
won four of his last five turf races and is always competitive on the lawn. Meets
a couple droppers that could give him some trouble but can still take care of
business. 6-SHADY MCGEE beat only one in his local debut but was facing a
considerably tougher field. He finished second in his previous two in Indiana
while meeting rivals similar to these. Late runner isn’t likely to get much of
a pace to run at but he did race in a slow-paced race two starts back and still
managed to get up for second. 3-RED HORNET is another coming off a victory. He won
at a slightly higher claiming level. Like top pick, he should never be too far
back. Wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated.