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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri July 12th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Woodbine Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 ALWAYS A WAY moves up on the drop and from a trip standpoint making a Surface/Distance move to Quad I. Their form this season has been consistent starting with the BTL effort back on 5/23 and given a pass overmatched on 6/9 before finishing with a strong CLOSE in the 6/30 sprint. 

#2 STORMIN DAVE does not jump off the Plot page, though does come into this race with progressive OptixGRADES improving under similar conditions with each start this season and a BTL effort in the most recent start while remaining at the ONE_TURN distance here. 

Woodbine Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BILL NEEDLE is a logical type with consistency this season returning under similar conditions. With that said, he has come up short of a winning (B) race at the level and perhaps that opens the door on the win end. #3 BAR TALK could be the right new face at the level. Today's event is the second start of the season, the sophomore season with room to build off the juvenile form and placed for their abilities at this lower claiming level. 

Woodbine Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SILVER PISTOL wheels back from the debut, an effort they can IMPROVE off of given the visuals. They comes back with closer to a lateral change in class and intent with the addition of blinkers.

#5 GOLDEN WIND could be the controlling speed in this race given the flow upgrade from 6/28. His races from last year fit on par and buried solid efforts under a slightly higher race par than what he will take on here.

#9 LEFT IN MY DUST also returns from the 6/28 common race. Going back to the 6/14 debut, he caught the eye making a BTL run with a WIDE BURST and the BLANKET finish at the wire. Today's class is technically a drop though does find a higher par than the first two races this season. 

Woodbine Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 COURAGOUS COPPER wheels right back with some sneaky changes and off an EX - EXCUSE in the most recent (6/30) start. Looking at the Standard PLOT there is a scenario where he is "lone speed" Q1 advantage and moves up from the 6/30 position as well when placed in Q3 that day. Today's race par is much lower than anything he has faced this season and even in the GP winter series and finds a par similar to where he was competitive last summer. 

Woodbine Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 SWERVIN MERVYN finds some class relief for this second start and exiting a productive race on 6/15. The race produced two next out winner from the four that ran back and the other two held their own (B-) in their next start both back at the MOC40 level. 

#10 BUCK'S FIZZ projected to move up on the DROP to this level on 6/16 and worth another look as he had TROUBLE_S and TROUBLE carried WIDE on the first turn 

Woodbine Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 CLASSY WHISPER has shown improvement second off in the past and follows that pattern into this spot. He finds further changes with the added ground -- holds a win over this innercourse with returning rider S. Vives and competitive races including a BTL/B- (TRAFFIC TROUBLE) at this distance last July contested at a higher N1X condition than today's claiming par. 

The "most likely" winner #5 ELUSIVE KNIGHT must be mentioned, though perhaps with some reservations making this first start off the layoff and dropped in for the claiming tag. 

Woodbine Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Tough spot to get creative with the logical #4 I'M A GAMBLER coming back from a competitive race under similar conditions in the second start this season. The Drexler pair (#5 RED RIVER REBEL, #7 SOUPER WATSON) fit as alternatives with #1 RAPID TEST presenting some hidden form to sneak into the number. 

Woodbine Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 MATICULANT closed out 2023 with a B OptixGRADE at this level with the November place finish. He returned to the spot where he fits off the layoff last month and can IMPROVE off the effort and result; a common race with #12 FASCINATION STREET. 

#1 MIDNIGHT TEMPESTA has had a lot of chances though this will be the first start at this lower MCL condition and could present the edge over fellow longtime maiden #6 JACK as those two have consistently recorded the higher figures in the field.