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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 14th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 5

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,5 / 1,4,5 / 3,4,7 / 1,3,9  ($40.50)

“Flagfall to that’s all”....that should be the plan for #4 Strange Arrange (7-2). According to Timeform US Early Pace figures, he’s completely loose on the lead. Now, there are concerns he can’t get the 6 ½ furlongs, because he’s given it up late several times. But if he does get to the lead comfortably and can slow it down even a little bit, he’ll be tough to catch…and won’t be favored either.

Race 8:  4 - 5 - 1

I don’t like to pick so many morning-line favorites as I am today, but ML-maker Jim Miller is spot on, and #4 Get N Tipsy (9-5) just seems like a likely winner. The Haran-trained 7yo comes in from Indiana in very fine form, and she’s consistently good at this level. Jockey Burgos knows this horse and keeps the mount, so that’s a positive. 

Race 9:  3 - 4 - 7

#3 The Ridge (4-1) is not the most talented horse in Rivelli’s barn. But, he has plenty of speed and has been rested up a bit for this affair. Plus, he’s faced tougher than most of the field and has every right to improve today. He might need to sit a bit off of the horse just to his outside, but I like Cohen in the saddle. He’ll break well and make some decisions…doesn’t have to have the lead today. 

Race 10:  1 - 3 - 9 

When a trainer is 3/62 on the meet, I’m a bit leery. However, Trainer Childers lures excellent jockey David Cohen to ride his horse, #1 Schmoozin (5-1), coming in from downstate. He’s the class of the field and should be able to sit a decent trip just off the speed. His speed figures are simply better than most today on a consistent basis.